I am not going to cover the mechanics of how the warriors approach the offseason. Perks already created a summary that does a far better job of explaining it than I ever could. See here:
https://dubnationhq.com/p/perks-offseason-2024
You're the GOAT, Perks!
What I want to cover here is how the warriors get back to the promised land. The warriors have many advantages in doing this, but there are also some uncomfortable truths that the fanbase has to swallow about what this is going to take. There are also a lot of comfortable truths that will make the medicine go down easier.
Uncomfortable truth #1 – there is no pathway to competing for another title in the final two years of Steph's current contract.
Steph is still a top 10 overall NBA player. The problem is that as he's gotten older, his defense has regressed. You need a better team to win a title around Steph than you did in the late aughts.
The warriors do not have the assets, either trade assets or cap space, to build a contender around Steph right now. There's nothing unusual about that, it's what happens in the natural course of time. All dynasties eventually become late stage dynasties.
Comfortable truth #1 – Klay Thompson is almost surely going to re-sign with the warriors; I'd put the odds at 95%. Malik Monk set the market for Klay. There isn't a single team in the league that would trade Monk for Klay right now. Monk got $19.5 million per year on a 4 year deal. That per-year average value is probably Klay's celling. ESPN didn't include Klay as a top 25 free agent, that isn't a slight, that's the reality right now. Klay's name is far superior to his game.
What would it take for Klay to leave GS? The one thing Klay has in spades over Monk is name recognition and some owner out there might panic, feel desperate to make a "splash" move and offer Klay the bag. Getting Klay Thompson could do a lot for a bad team's season ticket sales, sponsorship deals and visibility. A move like that would come from ownership, and not basketball operations. Three of the four teams most commonly linked to Klay have strong front offices and owners who don't generally meddle: OKC, San Antonio and Philly. The fourth team, the Magic, has committed to their youth strategy and is starting to reap the rewards, I don't see Orlando changing course.
Uncomfortable truth #2 – The warriors are probably committed to a two year farewell tour for the big 3. One of the most important things about the warriors to understand is that Joe Lacob is not a majority shareholder; he's a plurality shareholder. His status as owner is unassailable right now because in his fifteen years as owner, the warriors franchise value has gone from $650 million to close to $8 billion. No CEO who creates that kind of insane shareholder value is in any danger of being replaced. That crazy increase in franchise value is why the minority owners are fine with the crazy luxury tax spending.
However, because Lacob is the plurality owner, he is vulnerable to something most pro sports owners are not vulnerable to: he can be toppled in a coup de'tat. That was a part of the leverage Draymond used to get the contract he did last summer, which was an overpay. It's part of the leverage Klay will use to get a new deal this summer. The minority owners probably want two things: re-sign Klay, even if it's an overpay, and get under the luxury tax.
Lacob is willing to do anything and pay anything to win big, the minority owners are in to make money. Re-signing Klay, doing the big 3 farewell tour, and getting under the luxury tax are guaranteed to make massive profits (you might not win, but it will make a shit-ton of money). Chase Center will sell out, and the merch will fly off the store shelves, as long as the big 3 are together and playing every night.
If Joe Lacob has come to the conclusion that there is no pathway to a title with the current asset base, doing the big 3 farewell tour, giving the minority owners what they want, and rebuilding the asset base over the next two years to position the team to be a contender isn't the worst idea in the world.
Comfortable truth #2 – the nature of the second round of the draft has changed.
TJD should have gone way, way sooner last year, but after he slipped out of the first round, he essentially became a free agent: other teams passed on him and he went to the warriors because the warriors made TJD the best free agent offer.
With Lacob's willingness to spend, the warriors should dominate the second round of the draft. NBA agents have figured out that getting a player to the right situation is the most important aspect of the draft. TJD didn't care about slipping 25+ spots in the draft, he went to a team that gave him the best opportunity to play a lot and that offered him the most money with the most guarantees.
The warriors should get a good player on Thursday night.
uncomfortable truth #3 – a big move this offseason is probably a terrible idea.
Paul George doesn't solve the warrior's fundamental problem: they are old and small and slow. PG is also old and is slowing down. There's a reason the Clippers are getting farther and farther away from a title and not closer and closer; their three stars are all aging, all on the wrong side of 30, and can't compete with younger, faster, stronger, more dynamic athletes. The same thing holds true for the dubs big 3. It's the same reason the Phoenix Suns were utterly doomed to failure; KD and Beal are on the wrong side of 30, only Booker is in his prime. The Celtics just won a title with Tatum and Brown both squarely in their late 20's athletic primes. When Steph, Klay and Draymond were in their age 25 to 29 seasons, the warriors made the finals every single year.
The warriors should build through the draft. They have all their first round picks moving forward and they will probably get a good player on Thursday night. The draft is how you solve old and small and slow; you don't solve that problem with trades and free agents.
comfortable truth #3 – The NBA salary cap structure does not demand unnecessary sacrifices.
I was adamant about keeping Kevon Looney. Looney is the same age as KAT, and he had a down year last year, but he should bounce back. In the NFL, Looney is far more likely to get cut. In the NFL, unused salary cap space rolls-over, so NFL teams are incentivized to save every single last dollar. The NBA system does NOT work that way. The NBA system is a series of three yes / no questions.
Question #1 – Are you under the salary cap? Yes / No.
Question #2 – Are you under the first salary cap apron? Yes / No.
Question #3 – Are you under the second salary cap apron? Yes / No.
That's it, if you answered yes to question #1, then it matters how much under the cap you are, but if you answered no to question #1 (and the warriors 100% did for this coming season) then it doesn't matter how much under or over the lines you are; space under the first apron doesn't roll over to subsequent seasons.
It doesn't matter if you're a penny over the second apron or $10 million over: the penalties to the team's ability to compete are the same.
That's why the warriors guaranteed Looney's deal: it's not enough money to make any serious difference to where they are relative to the first and second apron. All cutting Loon would do is save Joe Lacob and ownership some money, it doesn't matter as far as the warrior's ability to assemble a better team next year.
uncomfortable truth #4 – the warriors will waive CP3 before Friday's deadline, and they will not trade his salary for a player nor will they reach an agreement to delay the deadline.
The warriors will waive CP3 for the following reasons:
1) CP3 has no incentive to delay the deadline. He's not getting the $30 million for next year if he chooses to delay and all it does is take him out of the early free agent market and hurt his chances to secure the best deal for himself. CP3 will want to be waived before the start of free agency.
2) CP3's deal is a back-breaker relative to the first and second apron. It's the kind of money that will mean the difference between being a second apron team and not being one. The warriors don't want to trade his salary for another salary that doesn't move their contention needle, and that's the kind of trades that are out there right now.
3) the warriors want to open up more playing time for Podz and Moody at the guard positions anyway, and CP3 doesn't help the team's core weaknesses.
comfortable truth #4 – The warriors are extremely well positioned to contend again in the near future.
Their asset base isn't great, but it's not bare bones either. I've been skeptical of the team's ability to keep Kuminga and Moody and have long felt a trade of both young wings was inevitable. Free agency will be so key to how this goes: if Klay hits the open market, gets humbled by what offers he gets and comes back to the warriors for less money, that's a huge step towards Moody taking the starting SG job sooner rather than later. Moody, Kuminga and TJD should start next season, and Podz should play as many minutes as he can handle. It should be an organizational priority to figure out what the team has in the young players.
The longer it takes for Kuminga and Moody to become starters and to play heavy minutes, the more likely it is that the team will be forced to trade one of the two young wings. I know people on this forum are down on Moody. I'm not, what he lacks in pure athletic traits, he more than makes up for with size, maturity and high-level BBIQ. I wouldn't want to trade that, unless I had to.
by sugarpieinthesky
12 Comments
I’m thinking a few MLE marginal moves for better established depth would do wonders. Like PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford’s impact on the Mavs. We aren’t far off
Warriors are not going to be able to contend in the near future LOL. They’re going to suck after Steph retires no matter what. Kuminga, Podz, and Moody in three years is not competing for a title. That team will suck. Need to maximize the last two years of your best player in franchise history and top 10 player ever. Because there’s a 99.9% chance you will never have another player of his caliber.
Great post, sound reasoning.
Nice write-up. The late 20’s age comment is so important. Our core guys are 10 years older than that. This group IS NOT WINNING A CHIP.
Re: Klay – I could see him taking a larger total money deal (2/$40-45M) elsewhere over a longer but smaller average annual deal from the Warriors (3/$50-55). His ego is bigger than he’s willing to admit. Maybe his dad can talk him down.
Oh God another sentimental person who wants to pretend minority owners care about Klay.
Draymond got paid because people thought he could still contribute to winning not because they’re sentimental about the big 3.
Also tickets don’t sell because of Draymond or Klay, people pay to watch Steph.
Lastly this team is only a few moves away from contending but it involves getting rid of Klay who has become a negative player. The warriors finished 46-36 last year and were tied with the Mavs around March.
The Mavs went on to the finals. The difference is the Mavs added two pieces at the deadline that addressed the same needs the Warriors need. They added a defensive true center (6 10) who can move and a good defensive wing who can also spot up (PJ Washington).
If the warriors can get rid of Klay who is a negative player that hurts the team, and add a defensive and offensive wing in Paul George and find a serviceable big center they can be a contender again
Any reading about the ownership dynamics you talked about?
I generally agree with the rest of it. But I haven’t heard any of this plurality owner discussion before.
A big risky move would be a mistake. Klay will be back. A CP3 trade is possible and MDJ isn’t doing his job if he’s not making phone calls but ultimately probably doesn’t make sense with the asset costs compared to just waving him. We’re in the retirement tour now. If Steph doesn’t like it he’s gonna have to be the one to force a confrontation over it.
If this were a videogame where nothing matters and you just fast forward to the next time you have a good roster, then the right move would have been blow it up at the last deadline when we knew for a fact the championship starting five wasn’t good enough anymore. But it’s not, it’s a business and revenue matters and perhaps more importantly symbolism matters, so, it’s gonna be a retirement tour. But we have to position assets to minimize the down years and get ready to strike next time our iron is hot.
This is an excellent post.
Agreed with almost all of it except for the very last point. The Warriors will not make the playoffs for the next decade unless there is some dramatic theft of talent (like getting KD). We don’t have the pieces in place for that. Which is fine. This was the cost of winning those titles, and we have to go through our down cycles and pray there is a generational draft pick for us. Similar to Wemby with the Spurs, and as we can see, even that will take another 3-5 years to really pan out.
> ESPN didn’t include Klay as a top 25 free agent, that isn’t a slight, that’s the reality right now. Klay’s name is far superior to his game.
They didn’t include him because they legitimately forgot. It’s a terribly written article that seemed to have forgot that GP2 was not a free agent at the time of its posting (6/22). There’s no way DeAnthony Melton or Buddy Hield are better players than Klay.
> That was a part of the leverage Draymond used to get the contract he did last summer, which was an overpay.
There’s not a single non rookie scale player in the league with DPOY production at $24mil. None. No player will propel you from a 29th ranked defense to a top 10 defense by their presence alone, *along with playmaking*, for $24mil.
> Moody, Kuminga and TJD should start next season, and Podz should play as many minutes as he can handle. It should be an organizational priority to figure out what the team has in the young players.
You cannot start 3 players who are incapable of dribbling the ball or shooting above 37% from three. Especially with Dray presumably starting.
> The warriors should build through the draft. They have all their first round picks moving forward and they will probably get a good player on Thursday night. The draft is how you solve old and small and slow; you don’t solve that problem with trades and free agents.
This doesn’t line up with reality. Just see the Knicks or Pacers whose best players were FA signings and trades.
Finally some facts & logic!
Bro, you need a TLDR. What are you even saying?
How sure are we that Klay will actually resign despite there not being a market for him? Let’s say we and another team (for ex Orlando) offers 10 mil each. After how badly the relationship has become would he really choose us? Just curious.
Well written but we really only need 1 indicator: Lacob has already signalled that he wants to pay less luxury tax. He knows our chance of competing is slim to none, and he’s already trying to “front run” by reducing cost.