Indiana Pacers free agency preview | Jalen Smith opts out of option | Obi Toppin, free agent targets

Indiana Pacers free agency preview | Jalen Smith opts out of option | Obi Toppin, free agent targets

Jaylen Smith Ops out he’s going into free agency the Pacers give two qualifying offers to two-way guys and plenty more happens on the eve of free agency what to expect in free agency so much we have to get to on today’s lock down Pacers podcast you are locked on Pacers your daily Indiana Pacers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day what up y’all happy Sunday it’s June 30th it’s many people’s favorite day of the NBA calendar and welcome into another edition of the lockon Pacers podcast where we of course talk about the Indiana Pacers as always my name’s Tony East I cover the team for Forbes and Si and today as you can see I’m on the road hopefully this sounds okay in a temporary setup and we have a ton and I mean a ton to get to uh 29 with the deadline for really qu a lot of stuff qualifying offers all the options for everybody everything getting set in motion some signings leaked out yesterday Patrick Williams just happened with the bulls and now it’s free agency day and there’s a ton to get to jayen Smith decision official out opted out of his player option with the Pacers as what I thought was slightly more likely but it was close uh qualifying offers submitted to Oscar sheway and Quinton Jackson what does that mean and what else matters for the rest of free agent the financial Outlook tools they can use Obby top and everything is coming today on the lockon Pacers podcast because there’s a lot to cover as it’s spending time Jaylen Smith the big news he opts out of his contract I thought it was close said it’s about 5050 on the radio to me what he should or could be thinking but I think I would have if you may guess right then I would have said opt out and here’s why if you’ve missed all these explanations let’s say you know he his player option for this season that that was covered so the 2425 season was $5.4 Million right let’s say he’s not worth that much but he could get $4 million somewhere else where he would play more because Isaiah Jackson has at least in the playoffs passed him and there could be battling for minutes next year if he can make less somewhere else but play that gives him a chance to maximize his earnings Beyond next season which is what really matters for him and so even if he would take less to make more that makes sense or he could even if he got could get two years at the same he was going to get he should in theory opt out to maximize his earnings so to me there were probably more ways he could make more money over the next three five whatever years by opting out than opting in but if he knew he’d be the backup center and figured 5.4 million was the best he could get to do that he would have opted in he chose out that was the official Choice from Jaylen Smith so 5.4 million off the Pacers books for now so for those of you who loved Jaylen Smith last year he was very good you were not wrong to do so was one of the best three-points Shooters in the league through three months of the Season beast on the glass got better timing his rebounds very good player right he played very well he played a lot like Miles Turner which was helpful for stylistic purposes him opting out is a big deal right they promised him a starting job two years ago that did not end up happening he started for a little bit that clearly wasn’t the right choice he should not have been starting but still that went away they needed to do that to get him to stay they needed the player option to get him to stay he opts out he’s an unrestricted free agent the Pacers can still keep him they have his early bird rights uh which allows them to sign him to a deal H I didn’t even do the math but much bigger than his current contract big raises over that eight% raises it’d be something I can’t even do the math fast enough well well more than enough to keep him if they need to um I didn’t do the math because I don’t know if the Pacers would do that I don’t know if they want to give Jaylen Smith any more than that much because of the tax they are kind of maybe not fortunate it’s the right word because they lost a good player with him opting out and he could come back still to be clear but they are now 17 point this is my numbers this is not always matching up with every publicly available Source I have them 17.9 million from the tax right now and we’ll talk more about those numbers later that’s before Obi toppins on the team we will talk about those numbers in more detail later so Smith opting out does if you include that Isaiah Jackson’s already a resource Ben at Center kind of allocate their funds in a way that could help them but if you’re Jaylen Smith what do you want in free agency right you’re 24 he’s still so young in theory this he would have just finished his rookie scale contract in the same way Aaron neith did and tyus Halbert did and Obby to and they’re all the same draft class right they’re all inexperienced and young to Jaylen Smith just gone through a trade and contract stuff that makes it difficult but maximizing his earnings makes sense and so if he thinks he could get more money or more playing time elsewhere and I bet he could given the Pacers financial situation and Center situation I bet he would take that and so my predic is that Jaylen Smith will not be on the Pacers next season I bet he could get I bet he can get both more money and more playing time somewhere else not by a lot more money but somewhat more maybe something like two for 14 three for 20 in those ranges I don’t know what his Market is that’s just been my guess for a couple weeks so if that’s the case opting out makes sense for him and if you’re the Pacers you have Isaiah Jackson The Fold you learned last year that Obi toin at the five can work in a pinch you have jarus Walker you can experiment with him at the five Pascal at the five is fine maybe you could and should I would recommend at least sign a third Center who’s like a real Center especially for defensive purposes you’ll need that size if you’re the Pacers but you can get that guy for a minimum or just over a minimum and they now have the space to do so and so this obviously stinks for the Pacers to lose a good young player right jayen Smith was good for them last year he was not as effective in the playoffs and maybe that’s the the prism of which everything matters to them but they might not win as many games about him and they made the playoffs by exactly the wins they had had they won one less game than would have been the plan tournament right everything mattered last year and his good play ver mons mattered and they’re now losing that potentially if he does not resign that’s just my official prediction so where does that leave the Pacers I think this is the most important thing we’ll keep referencing today and I will keep getting to it so I need to make some important assumptions one is that Pascal cakam is a truly max deal I’m almost certain it is and another one is that Johnny Fury is signing a regular standard contract so for the sake of everything you’re about to hear my estimate for the first year salary of Johnny Fury is $ 1.85 million and then it scales up by a different amount every year but basically I have him Ed a four fouryear 8.6 million deal where the first year starts at that 1.85 number now there’s some it could start lower than that it could start higher than that but with that number in there last year’s 35th pick started at 1.6 M with that number in there and with seakan and Smith opting out piates up 12 players with either a contract right now or an agreed to contract SL one coming in FY case halberton yakum Turner N Smith McConnell maen Walker Jackson Shepard nard Kendall Brown and Johnny Fury and those 12 players total $49.5 million in salaries uh in guaranteed salaries Kendall Brown takes them over 150 his salary is non-guaranteed that would give them three more roster spots and some amount of money under the tax now also included in their tax payment would be the three guys of dead money they have from the years ago of their eight in Pursuit Nick stasus Joan Morgan and Malik Fitz their three contracts in total are about 1.8 million so right now without waving Kendall brown but with Johnny and Johnny Fury at an estimated contract I have the Pacers currently 17.93cm but not a lot right that’s probably within two million two and a half million of what it could shake out to be depending on those two factors I just said and so that is what the Pacers parameters are to fill those last three or four of Kendall Brown’s wave roster spots that would include another big and Obi toppen is not in there there’s no one earmarked for the mid level Pacers could just sign somebody for some of the midlevel blow past attack so they’ll be topping that’s great if teams are this close to the line or they can feel they very good team without blowing past the line they almost always for all of time have not there are very very few exceptions so we will talk about the decision between obit toppen and an external free agent if they even have to make a choice in our third segment maybe we’ll bleed that into our second segment but that is what Jaylen Smith the reality he has put the Pacers in is that to me 17.9 million is enough to keep topping but then you have sparing resources for your last two rosters spots maybe that’s fine uh but they do have a little more flexibility as a result of losing Smith but they lost a good player and you would use flexibility to get a good player so tough tough day but maybe a day that can work out for the Pacers if they can run back their entire postseason rotation from last year and add Fury and perhaps another vet likely one that wouldn’t play but perhaps another vet so much more to get to on some two-way guys free agency previews Obby to and some external targets I like the top of my list per se as the Pacers I’ll comment on today’s lockdown Pacers but first we have to talk about FanDuel it’s the offseason I 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and have a very interesting offseason they’re clearly pivoting to a rebuild what does that mean where’s DeMar rosen gonna go very fascinating or lock on Warriors Klay Thompson not back what I I can opine this isn’t lock down Warriors I would have paid Draymond clay and Steph till they retired whatever they ask for just bond with fans man that’s what sports are all about anyway lock on P here let’s keep talking about free agency two other smaller things happened of recent note for the Pacers Quinton Jackson and Oscar sheway two twoa guys got qualifying offers from the Pacers they are now restriced free agents like with any other free agent the Pacers have match rights if you’re coming off of a two-way the way the new CBA works I don’t remember exactly when this is how this got implemented but the off the qualifying offer is a one-year two-way contract and two-ways have like very very very very little Financial protection so here’s how this is works this is people people said to me today when I tweeted this out oh my gosh that’s two guys and they drafted two guys late in the draft that’s four players for three spots how’s this going to work they’ll they’ll figure it out if if on July 1 Oscar sheway signed that qualifying offer they could just cut him immediately and be like hey why did you do that now you get nothing now you have no two-way right and then go with the other three guys so what could end up happening is now they they have the roster spots to let those guys guys do get out for a 15th roster spot I don’t think that’ll happen but that’s possible given their financial situation and depending on what Obi toins number comes in at that could look like their reality we’ll see I’m not going to predict that I’m just saying that’s possible what’s more likely to me is you get through summer league you assess how they’re playing and specifically you know the guys who got drafted are probably going to get two- ways you see between sheway and Jackson what you really want long term what makes the most sense with your G League team what makes the most sense with your NBA team with free agency and decide from there because if one of them signs it before you want them to you you can just cut them so there’s not you know there’s no harm in this and a qualifying offer does not guarantee a guy will be back to as evidence of that I would go back to 2021 with you Casher Stanley got a two-way qualifying offer and then he played a little bit in summer league and then it got pulled so he was not back he never got another twoa with the team so that is the reality for those guys because they’re not restricted free agents uh it would take I I don’t know if it would take much for the Pacers to not match a deal it’s just the reality um so perhaps the are back perhaps just one of them is back but I I did not get a note that Isaiah Wong got a qualifying offer perhaps he did but I don’t think he did we talked yesterday about free agency winners and losers I picked him as a big loser more evidence of that so I would almost be a certain to that to me that he is not back with the Pacers whereas Jackson and sheway and if you’ve been listening to me talk about tways on this podcast till offseason I predicted they were the two most likely to stick they seem like still the two most likely to stick and then those two plus Tristan Newton plus Enrique Freeman in the mix for the three Pacers 2A spots and we’ll see how they would handle uh any chance for one of them to get more than that or less depending on how the next couple weeks goes maybe another team just comes in and says hey we want to give one of them a minimum deal and they would just let them go at that point that’s just a team being nice that’s possible but that is the reality of the Pacers and that was to my knowledge the last procedural thing they did for agency is here it is June 30th 6 PM Eastern hopefully they listening to this before then the Pacers and every team can sign anybody not just their own guys anymore before this episode is technically out James Johnson Doug mcdermit Obi toppen technically Jaylen Smith ironically could all just resign with the pce at any time but at six o’clock they can sign anywhere or negotiate anywhere because that hasn’t been happening before this time obviously that would be tampering so that is now what’s going on in the league here’s where the Pacers are at I said this last segment because of Jaylen Smith’s opt out but my estimate given a guess of Johnny Fury’s contract um and we don’t know where the salary cap and tax are coming in I should have added that last segment they could change slightly from the League’s projection we’ll find out when the moratorium gets going the current luxury tax line is 171.5 four as an estimate and the current salary cap estimate is 141 million those could change and then the apron is five million more than that the first apron the second one’s much higher than that so as you think about the Pacers remember these could these numbers could also change slightly because of that even Beyond contracts on the team so if they are 17.9 million away uh with three players to come in they would in theory from the tax be able to use the full non-t tax paramid level exception which comes in at just under 13 million in total if they wanted to add an external Talent at 6 pm and then they could bring in two minimums and hey they’d be under the tax but they would not have Obi toin in that case so can they fit topping in and another player at under basically $18 million depending again depending on where the the the tax and cap actually come in that’s tricky depends what toppen wants if to’s number gets too high do they just say bye and take in an external guy do they just rely on jerus that to me is the story of the rest of the free agency is balancing those finances the rest of the way we’ll get into that in more in just a second but I keep talking about the mle and so a reminder for those of you that aren’t aware free agency is here talking about the PTI resources they’re over the cap people are going to ask a lot how much salary cap space do they have to bring another player none they cannot do just do that they’re over the salary cap they resigned seak sever of their players got raises halberton got a raise n Smith got a raise this season lot most salaries just go up from year to year Isaiah Jackson by entering year four his salary jumps up a bunch right lots of guys McConnell’s number got everybody’s number basically got bigger I think the only guy whose salary went down from last year is Miles Turner and that’s only slightly because of the way his contract was structured that’s how their number went up so much huge raises for Halbert and Smith seaka back with a bigger number and everybody else little increments that’s how you go way over the cap with the same team yard last year that doesn’t even account be topic so they’re over the cap they have no free agency spending power via cap space but they have exceptions they have the mid-level exception which I’ve talked about a lot right now they could use the non- tax pyramid level exception I don’t want to get too much into what hard capping means right this second but if they use more than a certain amount they would be hard capped at the first apron if they don’t want to get hard capped they could use just the taxpayer mid level exception which is much smaller um closer to 5 point something million this past season it’ll be higher than that next year but it’s much smaller in the Six Million range uh and they could use that and not be hardcap but it’s a less good exception you get a worse player right Reggie Jackson got it last year he just got traded for example so that is one way the Pacers can add talent for an external free agent is the mid-level exception whatever version they are able to or Happ to use they could also use something called the biannual exception which is teams over the captain get this uh it’s an up to twoyear deal I forget the exact value next year something like little over 4 million I really should have had that page up before I started but it’s very late and I wanted to get rolling here um the Bae next year is 4.68 million you can use it for a one-year deal or a two-year deal but if you use it you can’t use it The Following season so there is a timing element to it and with the tax being a factor I would not expect to see the Pacers use the Bae but it’s allowed it’s possible to do and then minimum contracts technically is’s a minimum Sal Sal exception so that’s an exception I’m doing air quotes if you can’t see me you can always sign minimums basically in the NBA unless you’re hard capped P are not currently hard capped in any number the tax pyramid level next year currently projects to be 5.18 Million by the way I was a little too high with my estimate there so with all that in mind that is how the Pacers can add external Talent they don’t have the cap space to do it but anyone they would sign right now and with sakam agreed to they can’t have cap space like at all realistically the most they could agree to a deal with somebody would be a first year salary of about 12.9 million on that non- tax payid level exception but that would get them very close to the tax and hard kept them at the first apron so that is their considerations in free agency and why I think the biggest talking point of their free agency and how they build this team is Obby toppen or somebody else and can that somebody else be worth playing we’ll talk about that to close this all out locked on Pacers free agency preview back here once again on locked on Pacers thanks for making us your first listen today and every single day your second one should be locked on Clippers Paul George Ops out Pacers dream is officially dead as a result they pretty much can’t sign and trade him because the Clippers would be hard capped and then they can’t sign Paul George uh so that’s out of the question Warriors are out but taking meetings with the Clippers the Sixers and the magic shout out to the Orlando Magic for that level of relevancy to be able to get into that they earned that they were great last year they’re going to be good for a long time lock on Clippers here the latest on that Paul George and anobi not Pacers as I’ve been trying to tell you guys was logistically essentially Impossible on this podcast all summer all right let’s look at free agency one more time so I’ve explained the numbers and why their proximity to the tax will dictate everything I don’t think they’re going to go over the tax this year next year yeah maybe we’ll talk about it the tax rules change next year this year I don’t see it happening so if they signed top into I’ll make this number up like three years 45 million three years 40 million something in that range and his first year salary is somewhere close to 13 a half 12 and a half whatever they would only have like 5 million left under the tax with two roster spots to go right so that would preclude that would basically make it so that they would not use the full midlevel exception to bring in an external player the inverse is also true if they Ed the full mid level to bring in a player they’d be close to the tax and the hard cap there’s other money that counts in the hard cap too they’re a little closer than just their salary differences unlikely bonuses is what I’m referring to that would make it hard to keep topping right it would be possible if he took less money but it’d be hard so this is sort of the reality they’ve put themselves in they could in theory have toppen and a cheaper player on the non- tax or excuse me on the tax mid level but a much cheaper player we’re talking like a $4 million player and that would be that would be it that’d be their whole summer after seaka which is possible but why would they do that is that something they need to do anyone they sign if they also sign toppen is not going to play on their team who is taking that contract from the Pacers someone who’s good is going to want to play so they can earn more money on their next contract so it’s a very hard balance to strike and that’s why I think so much of the Pacers free agency decision comes down to Obi toppen or someone else and that is only when considering their spending power that is not at all considering hey last year we had the seventh overall pick and we traded back to eth but still we picked jerus walk if I if I’m a pit front office person pitching this we picked jerus Walker last year do we want to play him if so could we you know could we let Obi walk could we sign and trade him into another team’s mid-level exception and get a big trade exception and then just play jarus is that something we could do that makes sense to me I still think keeping good players and keeping player rights on good contracts or Fair contracts that are tradable is good business especially for small Market teams and so I think keeping Obi makes more sense than not keeping Obi topping um and he’s good that’s the Crux of the argument right when I wrote about his free agency Outlook I said he’s a good player right and he fits very well only three players last year with the 100 dunks and 100 threes the other two are wemi and CAD he’s not a good Defender but he is a perfect offensive fit and anyone else you get could be a worse offensive fit I think that the odds to me would be slightly in favor of Obi Topp and resigning with the Pacers and their last two roster spots go to a minimum Center and maybe one of their guys they drafted late or a minimum Center and James Johnson who knows how that would go and maybe they could cut Kendall Brown and do more than all that but that is how what I think the Pacers the rest of their free agency period could look like as we look at it to wrap up really quick because my computer is about to die some external free agents I like for the Pacers top of the list someone Caitlin Cooper and I talked about on our free agency mailbag on her podcast last week Caleb Martin from the heat if he Ops out that would be an instead of Obi toppen player he is too good to be retained in the middle Simone fonio he’s restricted from the Pistons I like his shooting think he could be a good fit he would be instead of Obi Topp and player Gordon Hayward as a vet maybe if he could be got for a minimum would make sense for the Pacers he could be on top of toppen Naji Marshall I like is a byow guy he could be also fit with toppen but I’d rather just play jerus and sadique bay sadique bay is a torn ACL he’s not going to play hardly at all next year but you can get him for a two-year deal where you’re paying the salary of the year not playing to then get him on a year for cheap where he is playing makes a lot of sense to me for a Pacer team that can’t offer minutes next year but might be able to in two years I think that’s a clever idea for them computer’s about to die hope this was a good free agency preview for you guys Jaylen Smith Ops out they have decide between Obby toen an unrestricted free agent most likely to me I think toppen stays but we’ll see hope you guys enjoyed Today’s Show see you very soon with free agency potentially news tomorrow if they sign somebody with breaking it all down till then everybody have a wonderful day

Free agency begins later on Sunday. What is important to watch for the Indiana Pacers? Host Tony East breaks it all down after discussing Jalen Smith declining his player option and other free agency notes. Plus, Obi Toppin thoughts and free agent targets.

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