[Hann] What’s next if George leaves?

So, this is the more complicated answer, because there are a lot more variables at play here. Let’s keep it consistent with 3/100 for Harden. In this scenario, the Clippers now find themselves $25.8M under the first luxury tax apron for 10 players (again, a more expensive Harden contract could easily eat another $10M of that margin). Right off the bat, the Clippers have the ability to add free agents above the minimum salary: they can use the full non-taxpayer mid-level exception (which starts at 12.8M and can run up to 4 years, $55M) and bi-annual exception (which starts at $4.7M and can run up to 2 years, $9.6M). However, both of those tools hard cap the team at the first apron, meaning that everything has got to get done in that margin. If Harden signs 3/100 and the Clippers don’t make a major trade, $25.8M is plenty. Add an MLE signing and a BAE signing and you’re at $8.3M in margin left with 12 players on the books. Throw Christie on a rookie min and add one more min guy and you’ve got your 14-man roster with about $5M to spare.

Even if the Clippers need more margin, they can make it. Using assets to dump Tucker and/or Westbrook’s deals would still be inadvisable given their situation, but the league’s stretch provision (which allows the cap hit of waived players to be spread across multiple years) is an option. Stretching Tucker would save $7.7M against the cap this year, that would be deferred in the form of $3.8M dead money cap hits each of the next two seasons. Stretching Westbrook’s smaller salary would save $2.7M this year. The cap hits in subsequent years are regrettable, but there are worse ways to free up an extra $10M if the Clippers need it. If the Clippers aren’t planning on committing to Bones Hyland for a full-time rotation role, it also probably makes sense to move his $4.2M salary instead of paying an above-minimum premium.

Presumably, the Clippers would keep their 4 returning starters in the lineup and look for more size in the starting lineup using the mid-level exception. Nobody is going to be a like-for-like Paul George “replacement,” so it’s better to think about the team that they’re going to be going forward, and adding youth and athleticism and size and defense is going to need to be a part of that. Plus, I think everyone is ready for a year of Kawhi Leonard not having to defend power forwards full-time. I’m not going to get into the pros and cons of different forward candidates here, but I’ll list some: Obi Toppin (restricted free agent–for what it’s worth, a Pacers writer I reached out to said they’d match a full MLE offer), Naji Marshall, Derrick Jones Jr., and Kelly Oubre make up something of a short list. Patrick Williams just got 5 years and $90M to stay in Chicago, if you want to know what the market looks like for forwards. If the Clippers were to trade for a PF, and that trade involved Terance Mann, I’d go all-out on De’Anthony Melton as the replacement at shooting guard. There are a couple of big names that warrant mention here as well: Klay Thompson and DeMar DeRozan, who both seem just a little too good to be true, but still worth mentioning 12 hours before free agency begins. In either case, the talent is considerable but the fit is questionable (DeRozan’s talent even more considerable and his fit even more questionable than Thompson’s), and work would need to be done to make the roster fit around them.

The bi-annual exception isn’t as substantial of a tool, but it’s still something. Because the minimum for 10-year veterans doesn’t lag too far behind the BAE, those dollars are a little more meaningful for younger players. This could be a chance for an upside play (thinking Precious Achiuwa, unrestricted after not getting a qualifying offer from the Knicks; Saddiq Bey, worth way more than this but going to miss most of next season with a knee injury; Jalen Smith, intriguiging skillset/production but didn’t stick in Indiana’s rotation) or just a way to have a slightly stronger offer for a priority minimum guy that has multiple playoff teams chasing him (think Andre Drummond, who is probably this summer’s top veteran backup C option).

Back to DeRozan for a moment, the post-George, non-second apron Clippers get back a lot of trade flexibility. First of all, they can acquire signed-and-traded players (this also triggers the first apron hard cap, which I’m assuming is a reality they’ll embrace dealing with because of the tools it makes available to them), including potentially DeRozan at a higher salary. Second, they get normal flexibility in trade math, and are allowed to aggregate salaries. They’d also be allowed to trade their 2031 first round pick. The John Collins fantasy is back! That means that the first step for the Clippers, once they find out that George is leaving, is to work through any trade scenarios for medium-sized targets, and once that is settled, immediately get to work on identifying roster needs and utilizing their exception money to make it happen. Even though a large number of last year’s rotation players could still be in next year’s rotation, there’s guaranteed to be at least 1-3 new faces playing regular minutes, and there is a lot more flexibility for trades to shake up the supporting cast.

Source: https://213hoops.com/paul-george-opted-out-now-what/