[OC] How an All-NBA snub could potentially give this Celtics team an extra year together (or just saved it outright when the new media deal kicks in)

After Jayson Tatum's third season, in which he made All-NBA, he signed a 5 year max extension in the offseason that was worth 163 million. In the first year of the deal, which would be the 2021-2022 season, it would be worth 25% of the cap which is the most a player can get on their second deal.

But because of the Rose Rule, it would be possible for the deal to reach 30% of the cap and be worth 195 million instead. The incentives are as follows:

• The player was named to an All-NBA team in the most recent season, or in two of the past three seasons.
• The player was named Defensive Player of the Year in the most recent season, or in two of the past three seasons.
• The player was named Most Valuable Player in any of the past three seasons.

So even though Jayson made All-NBA in his 3rd season he would still need to make it in his 4th season since that team option year is technically part of the rookie contract. He had a great 4th season carrying a roster through injuries and COVID hell but ended up getting snubbed from All-NBA. So even though he has made All-NBA in 4 of the last 5 seasons, he missed it in the one year he couldn't have because of the specifics of the Rose Rule.

How does this relate to the team's long-term outlook? Well the 2022 season was the first year of Jayson's 2nd contract. And with the 30% max, he would've earned 4 to 5 more million dollars that season. Certainly operations could've been approached differently, but assuming all else equal, the Celtics wouldn't have been below the luxury tax line in the 2021-2022 season. The Celtics were at 135.4m at the end of 2022. while the luxury tax was at 136.6m. There was other minor cap-related drama like how Jaylen Brown missed out on a 1.4m bonus for not being selected to the All-Star game in 2022.

We've all heard about the second apron penalties as well as the general luxury tax implications, where it becomes more punitive for every 5 million over the tax. But the whole point of this is that the Celtics have delayed the "repeater tax" by a year. The Celtics have only paid the tax the last 2 seasons, and the penalty for repeat offenders only applies to teams that have exceeded the luxury tax line for 3 out of 4 seasons. Next season will be the 3rd year and the additional penalties would only apply for 2025-2026 and on.

With lucrative deals on the horizon for Tatum, Derrick White, potentially Sam Hauser, it seems like the Celtics will be triggering the repeat offenders tax often in the future. But with the new media deal, all the thresholds will move up and make those tax hits less harsh.

tl;dr Jayson Tatum not making All-NBA in specifically the 2020-2021 season may have delayed the Celtic's repeater tax by a full season which could make it more feasible to retain their talent down the line.