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It is no secret that the newly instituted second apron has played a major role in how front offices are building their teams and allocating their money. We have already seen teams running scared of the consequences that come with spending over the second apron. The cruelest form of punishment would have to be the new draft pick penalty. In a nutshell, this penalty freezes a team’s first-round draft pick seven years out (the latest pick a team has access to) if they finish the season over the second apron. For example, a team that will almost certainly finish this upcoming season in the second apron is the Boston Celtics. They will then have their 2032 pick frozen, meaning they are unable to trade it. The only way to unfreeze this pick is to finish out of the second apron in three of the following four seasons, or else their pick remains frozen and is moved to the end of the first round, regardless of record.
Now, the reason I highlighted the draft pick penalty was to show the measures the league is taking to prevent owners from attempting to buy championships. Fortunately, teams had this last year to get their salaries in order before the new apron rules began with this new league year. Unfortunately, some teams were not built to bypass the apron rules and were too deep into the salary hole to reasonably climb their way out. One of these teams being the Denver Nuggets.
If you’ve followed the NBA over the past several years, you would know that the Nuggets starting five of Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Porter Jr., and KCP was elite. This last season, they played 959 minutes, the most together of any five-man lineup, and were extremely efficient, especially on offense. Together, they posted an offensive rating of 127.2 (points scored per 100 possessions) which would rank first in the league by a wide margin (Boston was first with a rating of 123.2). Their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) was above average at 114.2, which would rank 12th in the league (per Cleaning the Glass). However, the Nuggets lost a key piece to that puzzle this off-season in KCP.
The dreaded second apron didn’t prevent the Nuggets from resigning him, but it spooked them into letting him walk to Orlando. KCP had been a huge part of the Nugget’s recent success, including a 2023 championship. With the apron looming this last season, the hope was that the young guys on rookie-scale contracts would step up and prove they could be contributors to what Michael Malone wanted to do in Denver. This was evidently not the case as the Nuggets starters played the most minutes together during the season and an average of 37 minutes per game each during the playoffs (per Cleaning the Glass). This begs the biggest question for Denver coming into next season: Is Christian Braun ready to start?
With the loss of KCP, Denver’s wing depth consists of Braun, Watson, Holiday, Strawther, and Tyson. Of these five, only three received playing time in the playoffs last season. Holiday proved to be a steady rotation piece for Michael Malone, but was certainly not the preferred seventh man down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs. This further highlighted Malone’s lack of trust in his young guys in important minutes. Peyton Watson showed flashes of defensive prowess and versatility at times during the playoffs, but his lack of offense, particularly shooting (25% from three on 12 attempts), only earned him an average of seven minutes per game and received the dreaded DNP – Coach’s Decision for two of their 12 games. This leaves Christian Braun who by the eye test, and the numbers, is undoubtedly their most ready young wing on the roster.
Braun will have a large void to fill at the two guard spot left by KCP. KCP has long been known as one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA. When you play with offensive talent like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, your job is to play hard defense and hit your open threes which KCP did better than almost anyone in the league. Braun has shown he can be a strong defender with his combination of size and athleticism but is still developing his defensive IQ where Caldwell-Pope really flourished. His ability to navigate screens and keep Jokic out of difficult two-on-one power plays while also guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player was truly special to watch.
Your second job as the starting two guard on a Nikola Jokic-led team is to knock down your open threes. The amount of attention Jokic draws combined with his court mapping gave the average rotational wing about three catch-and-shoot opportunities per game (per NBA Advanced Stats). This is the area that I believe Braun will need to improve on next season the most. In KCP’s two years in Denver, he shot career-highs 43% and 41% from three, taking half of his shots from behind the line. However, the number that I want to highlight is his 42% from the corner. In modern NBA offense, the least effective offensive players will typically wait in the corner for an open look from the second most efficient shot in basketball. A player like KCP and Braun must be able to capitalize from the corner. So, while Braun shot 39% from three last season, he only shot 30% from the corner, down 13% from his rookie season (per Cleaning the Glass). He will need to improve this number to be an effective offensive player next season.
All the tools are there for Braun to come in and be a productive starter this year for Denver, but he will have a lot to live up to as KCP was arguably the missing piece for the Nuggets (along with health) to get to the top of the NBA mountain. Yes, the second apron is intimidating, but when you have a team with a prime Nikola Jokic, draft picks should not be as big of a concern as providing talent around him. Personally, I don’t believe I have seen enough from Braun to warrant letting KCP walk. Now, that is not to say that I do not believe in Braun and his development into a great player for the Nuggets, but when you are a top-five title contender, retaining one of the best Three and D wings in the league would be my top priority.
by Fantastic_Past_152
12 Comments
Yes
Upvoting this just for how much effort you put into it
Going into the second apron to keep KCP would make a better team next year, but could restrict the team for the rest of Jokic’s prime. The gamble is that Jokic will have a long window and investing in development is the only way to have a good roster through it all.
Very real worry that we don’t develop enough talent. Hoping the best for CB.
I’m not reading all that but I’m happy for you
If CB is not ready now, he never will be.
The story of his career may ultimately be limited by his 3pt %, but playing most of his minutes with Jokic and getting his volume up this year will effectively by the best test case to see if he is a true starter on a Championship squad, or just a highly effective defensive bench guy which I think he already has proven to be.
Dear diary, I have something to tell you about the Nuggets.
Please give us a TL DR
As a newer fan who’s starting to pay more attention to the NBA on the whole, I really dig this and it’s well-written – subscribed. One suggestion (and it’s not as much for me specifically but to address the truth under some of the snark in some of the other comments) would be breaking it up into sections with headings to make it feel more digestible. It’s not actually that long, but it’s on the internet (and it feels longer as a Reddit post) – chunk it. I wouldn’t re-write anything, just add headings to what’s already there; e.g.
The Second Apron – two paragraphs
KCP and the Starting Five – two paragraphs
Denver’s Wing Depth – one paragraph
Braun vs. The Role – two paragraphs
Conclusion – one paragraph
Good read! One point I don’t feel has been brought up throughout the whole letting KCP thing go is that the Nuggets stated goal isn’t to repeat but to build a dynasty over the Jokic years. If that’s the goal, do we really expect KCP to be core in that? I agree he would be key this coming season, but surely we expect a decline the year after, if not, almost certainly the year after that.
If that ends up being the case, is ripping the band-aid off now, not better in the long term? CB, Strawther, Pwat, get valuable minutes as a result of KCP being gone, and it looks like the Nuggets are banking on that. Agree or disagree with the plan, the plan is there and only time will tell, It’ll be a fun trip regardless.
Schrodinger’s starting SG
Fantastic analysis and it really gave me info on why the cba is so scary. Thank you
Good post. I just learned some new things about this restrictive CBA. Of course it will be an adjustment losing one of our 5 starters who was on our championship team. However, I believe in Christian Braun. He’s an athlete. Don’t forget he had the 2nd highest vertical his combine year. But more than anything, this is a guy who is committed to playing his role to help his team win. That’s why he’s won 5 championships between high school, college, and the NBA. CB probably won’t come up with a strip steal almost every game and shoot the 3-ball like KCP, but he brings his own athleticism as a defender and offensive finisher to the table. Don’t forget he dunked on the DPOY. We’ve never questioned CB’s hustle. He’s a professional. He’s a winner. He’s ready. He knows what he needs to work on. The 3 ball will get better. Just let Christian Braun be Christian Braun. He has the right mindset.