In the upcoming days, I'll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. I'll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like. I do this as an article on my Substack, which I'd appreciate if you could check it out! & here, I'll be making a shorter, summary of all the key points!
Today, we're going through Nikola Jovic & you can find the in-depth article here!
Starting the year we didn't see much of Jovic. Similar to the year before, it was a bunch of DNPs & only seeing the floor when guys got hurt. He wasn't seeing consistent time to start the year. But once he became a starter & got more reps in working on his weaknesses it was then that he turned the corner & started to solidify himself as a reliable rotational player & even a starter towards the end.
In the 38 games that he started, he scored 14.4 pts per 75 possessions on 57.2% eFG & 58.5% TS, including 40% from 3pt on over 9 3s per 100. The Heat were also good in those minutes. They were +7.9 in 896 min. Include both Butler/Adebayo, that jumps to +10.8 in 396 min.
He had moments that made him a starter
- 3 games scoring 20+
- 14 in double digits
- 3 games with 5+ asts
- 11 with 4+ asts
- 4 games with 4 3s
There was the game against the Rockets where it was one of his best games of the season on both ends of the floor(link is to a thread breakdown) – finished with 6pts, 8rebs, 6asts & 4 stocks in 21 minutes. That's where he showed his defensive growth & transition attacks. When he first became a starter, there was this seven game stretch where he has shown immense growth on both ends of the floor.
The defense was the most important reason. That was the "the" reason he was able to be on the floor. Last year, he was used in a completely different role as a big & that hurt him a lot. He wasn't cut out for that role. This year, he played more with Bam – he played 12.6mpg last year and that jumped to 17.6.
Because of that change, he was used differently & was surrounded by better defenders. His defensive impact can be seen in his estimated plus minus – he went from -0.8 to +0.2. He's not "that" of a positive defender, but there's a difference between a negative vs neutral. Other metrics show similar growth, such as DARKO:
The first improvement that stood out earlier in the year was him being in the right spot at the right time more consistently. He was usually responsible for being the help side defender & he did a great job recognising when he needs to help. His rotations were on point.
The game that stood out to me the most was the Cavaliers game on March 21st. That's where you could see everything that was improving for him. In that game he was used in drop(something he "really" struggled with), was helping early, tagging well & made many smart rotations.
When it comes to rim protection, for the year, opponents shot 64.0% on 3.7 shots within 6ft – that's 1.0% better than expected though, so not great. He hasn't shown that he's an effective rim protector yet. Last year it was 70%. Progress!
Link to the video of his rim protection
He was still able to use those lanky arms to either deter shots(because he knew to rotate early) or contest the shots well enough. There were many possessions where he was swallowing guys up, stayed disciplined & contested without fouling.
Link to the video of him doing all the little things
The most impressive part of the growth were all of these little things. All of these clips show high IQ on defense. It was knowing when & how to provide help. It was rotating quickly. Knowing when to show helps in the gaps, when to recover. Being active. Making instant decisions.
He even showed versatility on that end too. There were many times he was able to stick on drives:
Link to the video of his defense vs drives
He was even switching easily on shifter guards & actually holding his own. I don't think he's there yet as a switch defender, but he's making his case for it. He's at least went from a liability to someone that's "serviceable". The thing that pops to my mind immediately is how the Hawks were hunting him with Murray & he did his job.
If he can be more versatile defensively, where there isn't an area that is going to hurt significantly, that's going to be a huge plus for the team. But right now, I still wonder what his ideal role on defense looks like. What kind of matchups is he most suited for? I still have many questions on that end & that will determine if he's a closing level player that could get 30mpg or if he's a 20-25mpg depending on matchups.
Overall, his defensive growth was EYE POPPING. He looked like a completely different player & it's this growth that will help him stay on the court as the starter next season – he SHOULD be the starter.
When it comes to his offense, that's even more ideal for this team. This is exactly what they've been looking for all these years – player with size that can guard up, switch(ish) AND be high volume 3pt shooters. He clearly has shown the potential for that.
He's already been upping his volume throughout the year & has been knocking them more. He hasn't made himself a spacer "yet" but I doubt that's going to be an issue for long. Becoming a spacer is that it won't happen until it does. Until said player puts up high amount of shots willingly with confidence that he is a shooter & knocks it down at a respectable rate, then it's only a matter of time.
The volume & confidence is there. Since becoming a full time starter on Feb 13th, he shot 39% on 10.3 3s per 100:
Link to a video of his 3pt shooting
This is all exactly what you want to see. There's no hesitation on any of those shots. It's also not just spotting in the corner. He's shooting 46% on 3.6 corner 3s & 35% on 6.7 ATB 3s. There's versatility in how he gets those too – standstill, relocating, trailer, popper. Even the metrics love him!
Equally as important, he's shown flashes & so much more improvement in other areas that makes him a more well rounded offensive role player. Possessions don't have to end with him taking a 3pt shot.
The first & the most fun thing is the transition stuff. He loves to get out & push the ball. He's also good with it. He may not always finish it himself but he's one of the best decision makers in transition on the team & we know that's needed.
Link to a video of his rim finishing
When it comes to his finishing, that has trended upwards. For the year, he's shooting 55% at the rim but has improved to 71% since being a starter. The flashes are there & it's making less flashy but more consistent because it has felt like there is still some issues with it. Similar to the 3pt shooting, it's how he does it. It can be in transition, as a cutter(being 7ft also helps), beating closeouts & even had some reps on ball.
Link to a video of his passing
& finally, we have his passing, which is probably the most fun aspect of his game. This needs to be used more because he's good at it in many situations. Can be used as a hub in the post, delay actions, find cutters, drive and kicks or simply make passes through tough windows.
So, to wrap up! He shouldn't be penciled in as a starter. He should be a LOCK. But without getting ahead of ourselves, "all" of this isn't projecting him to be a star or take leaps that will have him be a 25ppg guy. It's not looking at him through those lens. His leap doesn't have to be more usage or more on-ball. It's simply playing the role he was doing much better. This is all looking at his improvements to be a more effective, impactful role player that fits this team. We're looking at how he can be more impactful in this current role. Overall, he had one of the best seasons considering expectation & I can't wait to see what another off-season had done for him!
Let me know what you think of Jovic's season & project what he's going to be like in the upcoming season!
by SimplyBallin
