In the upcoming days, I'll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. I'll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like. I do this as an article on my Substack, which I'd appreciate if you could check it out! & here, I'll be making a shorter, summary of all the key points!
Today, we're going through the season Tyler Herro had. If you want the full breakdown, you can check it out here!
One of the most polarising players on the Heat for the last 3 years & it doesn't look like it will change & the biggest reason is that we didn't see enough of Herro this year. Being so in & out of lineups, recovering & never establishing a rhythm is going to make things worse.
With that considered, I'd still say this was an overall disappointing season.There were improvements made 100%. He worked on his strengths where they are better. He added things to make himself more effective, but the main things that have been an issue, remain an issue.
The criticism of him that were there last year & the year before are still there. Although the improvements have made him a better player, he's still basically the same player in these 2 years… except he has more touches & usage
Let's start with his stretch to start the season where he averaged 25/5/5 on 53% eFG & 56% TS
This was the stretch that had people say he made a leap or was on the trajectory to be an All-Star calibre player & on the surface that all looked great. But digging deeper, although there were signs of good stuff, it weren't signs of a breakout or potential leap. I took a deeper dive in this film breakdown going through everything he was doing here!
Link to the breakdown of his stretch
The conversation will never be what it's meant to be as long as he's the guy that leads the team in shots because for whatever reason, that's believed to be what's needed. That's why as a whole this has been disappointing for him. Now, how much of that to blame is the coaching & the view of him that the team has is a different discussion.
The only way to change is to change his game completely where he's in a "wildly" different role or he gets better significantly at his biggest weaknesses where it's not a weakness. No matter how much they push this, without those changes, things will be the same.
But let's get to some basketball!
Floaters, pull ups, rim shots & pick and roll
He has developed that floater & shots from that range a effective weapon.
Link to the video of his floater & paint shots
Per BBall-Index, he was 15th overall in floater talent. Per PBP, he's shooting 50% within 4-14ft with 30% of his shots there. That's up from 47% last year. Out of 55 players with 6 FGA, he's 15th in %
Related to this, it's his jump on pull ups(some of the shots within 14ft are included here too)
This is a significant jump from what he was doing earlier in his career. There's a big difference being a low 40s guy to 47%.
& one of the main ways he was able to do that is how he gets to those shots in the first place. This is where the development in the floater range helps him. He shot 48% on open shots beyond 10t and 45% on tight shots.
Link to a video of his PNR game
The way he has approached the PNR as a scorer stood out too. He's been more methodical, patient & doesn't get sped up as much by defenders His improved floater, pull up & better methods is a reason why he had his best year in the PNR. Here's his points per poss, FG%, eFG%
There are still things that hold him back & the 1st is how much of his shots are pull ups, but from the mid-range. Over 17% of his offense comes from the mid-range where he's shooting 39%. When you combine his paint "efficient" paint shots, he's shooting 43% beyond 5ft
Link to the video of his pull ups from mid-range
But what hurts him the most is the lack of rim pressure & foul drawing
Link to the video of his rim attempts
There are flashes of him getting past defenders & turning the corner but it's never consistent. What makes it worse, he's also not a good finisher either.
This is exactly not what you want to see
What's worse is even if you take his best seasons 2021 & 22, he finished 264th in rim FGA per 100 & 350th in rim freq. Even at his best, he was one of the worst.
Adjust the shot diet!
This is where he should adapt his shot diet significantly. When it comes to on-ball, he needs to eliminate those mid-range shots significantly. Almost a fifth of his offense come be at 39%. 25% of his offense can't be pull ups at 47% either.
He hasn't embraced that off ball role at all. He has never taken 30% of his offense off the catch, which makes no sense given how good of a shooter he is & I don't buy it that it's because of roster construction because he's "never" been a high usage off the catch, even as rookie with Goran in the bubble
There are 59 players that take at least 4 C&S 3pt. Herro takes 4.2 but that's only 23.9% of his shots. That ranks 56th.
This was his other years. Still not good.
A lot of off ball 3s come from handoffs to get him on-ball or it's standstill C&S. He needs to become a much better off-ball mover.
Link to the video of his off ball 3s.
There's not a lot of constant movement, especially not in a way someone like Duncan gets his 3s.
Link to Duncan getting his off-ball 3s
He gets more shots like this, which I'd prefer over his mid-range pull ups:
Link to the video of him getting on-ball 3s
Stretching out the defense this way by becoming a more of a threat off the dribble from 3pt is more effective than hunting hot shots in the mid-range. But look at his 3pt% on shots with different touch time:
He's a more consistent shooter when he doesn't start or hold the ball for too long. When it's him creating, he's been quite inconsistent.
Passing
When it comes to him as a passer, per BBall-Index. That's also not a good thing for someone that often leads the team in touches.
There are improvements but not significant enough to make a considerable difference or to make up for the lack of efficiency or rim pressure
Off-ball play
What's also been discouraging is the fact that I don't see a lot of his limitations/weaknesses as a thing that a right role will fix. Herro's inefficiencies aren't caused solely because he's put in a role that is above him. It's simply how he plays.
We already mentioned that he was never an off the catch guy even when he was a rookie. He already PNR being his most used playtype then. He was already needing the ball. Role players need to be efficient & he has never proved to be the case consistently
Here's his cuts & beating closeouts
There were only a few clips of him cutting period. & when it comes to him beating closeouts, it usually just ends in a pull up jumper because he can't get to the rim often. That's why:
Amongst guards with at least 1 2pt FGA with touch time of less than 2s, he's 103/104 in FG%. He's not converting anything easy – for comp, Robinson shot 69%, Jaquez 66% & Herro shot 46%. Even in prior seasons, he shot 54%, 59%, 59%, 48%. That hurts the team
So, where does this leave us with Herro for this season?
Probably in the same spot as we've been in these last three years. It's tough because 1 of 2 things must happen & 1 is just as likely as the other. It's either:
Him becoming a completely new player. Different mentality as both scorer/passer. Shot diet fixed. He suddenly can get by defenders with ease consistently, provide rim pressure & be more physical to warrant high usage
or completely changes his game & improves the efficient stuff
These are some playtype frequency. This is the most realistic route. He shouldn't have the highest PNR freq. He shouldn't have 1 of the lowest spots ups
This simple change can make everything so different & it's the only way I could see change. If we see some marginal improvements again, it's not going to make much difference unless the biggest weaknesses all around are addressed.
But I highly doubt a player who has never shown those abilities or has the tools to have that ceiling simply flip that switch.
To wrap up, I do wonder what the reluctance is to see Herro as a player closer to being a C&S guy like Duncan. His skillset, what his strengths/weaknesses "literally" point to that direction. The only reason you'd think otherwise is using the 20ppg argument, he's young & not willing to accept he's not the high ceiling player the team made it out to be
Let me know what you thought of his season & what should we expect from him now. Are there any improvements that you want to see? A change of role? Or anything else?
by SimplyBallin
