In the upcoming days, I'll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. I'll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like. I do this as an article on my Substack, which I'd appreciate if you could check it out! & here, I'll be making a shorter, summary of all the key points!
Today, we're going through a bit of a weird season from Jimmy Butler. You can check out the full breakdown here!
Jimmy Butler had himself a season. Not sure what kind of a season. Going off by his box-score stats, it's on par with the rest of his seasons – 20/5/5 with the same efficiency & still gets to the line. Yet, it felt "different"
This was definitely a down season if we comparing to what he did last year, but it would've been tough to replicate a career year at 34 after finishing the season with an injury. That 2023 was elite by all metrics & shouldn't be the standard at this point.
Compared to his previous seasons, particularly his 2020 & 2022, it was roughly the same across the board & yet again, I still found it to be different & more annoyed watching Butler. There's been signs of declines, more coasting, more deferring, more used differently. & the switch wasn't switching.
Touches, passiveness & usage
- The 1st thing has to do with his touches & usage The lowest touches per 75
- Lowest initiator rate
- 2nd lowest offensive involvement rate
- Lowest scoring possession per 75
- Lowest total offensive load
- Lowest true usage
This is why it has been even more noticeable this year. Butler's coasting never been "this" coasting & before, it also meant coasting as a scorer, but he still had those touches to be a facilitator. Now, it meant a lot more being passive or not looking to create anything.
Here's his % of games with 30% AST since 2020:
50% -> 59% -> 31% -> 39% -> 26%
This stood out a lot in the Nuggets game where he routinely didn't attack mismatches. That was the case for a lot of the year where he treated himself as if he was a role player that needs to sit in the corner as the primary role.
He has looked less aggressive in attacking mismatches whenever he had the ball in his hands. I don't buy that this the defense figuring him out because 5 days later he will do it against better defenders with ease. When the switch is flipped, he's as aggressive as ever and you can't stop him.
That becomes noticeable when both Adebayo & Herro are on the court. He takes significantly less of the usage when they're on & that's low compared to other top players, even ones that are in his age bracket.
He scores 20.9 points per 75 possession on 66% true shooting with a 20% usage with both Adebayo & Herro on. That jumps to 26.7 on 61% & 28% without them.
This is what other top players look like:
This is not normal usage or scoring whether for any top player whether they have other top players with them or not. This includes players that are older too.
Look at the difference here.
Link to a breakdown of him being more engaged vs the Kings
This was a breakdown of one of his better games & you can see the difference in how he looks both as a scorer or passer when he's engaged.
When it comes to the actual declines, it's not saying he's washed but simply it's not as consistent or the highest gear isn't as high anymore. When your standard is elite of the elite, the margins are so small that any drop off is significant & does show up a lot more
Finishing & sho
Here are his rim freq, rim FG%, shots blocked & free throw rate
- 2020: 37.8% / 63.7% / 9.0% / .693
- 2021: 41.4% / 67.2% / 7.5% / .565
- 2022: 37.0% / 66.8% / 4.5% / .549
- 2023: 40.4% / 67.7% / 7.8% / .625
- 2024: 35.2% / 63.8% / 10.0% / .579
It's not all bad. He hasn't dropped off to where it's bad compared to his peers, but it's not as elite when it's compared to his usual self, especially when considering consistency.
A lot of is with the approach too. There are many times he doesn't look to attack period.
What makes all of that worse is the shot that he could've relied on last year, isn't as effective. His paint scoring & mid-range dropped off significantly.
That's why his impact is a lot worse. Last year, he was getting to the rim, to the line, finished well AND was effective in his counters when it comes to the paint or pull up shooting. Without that counter & diminished rim finishing + volume, the drop offs compound to make it even worse. In previous years, he at least had better finishing to make up for it.
This might be a reason why he's taking more 3s, which I do hope to see a further jump, considering he was a respectable off the catch shooter before.
Passing
One of the main things that stood out is the passing. That has dropped off a lot more. A lot of it can be explained by the lack of aggression, more deferring etc. If he's not attacking at will, he's not forcing the defense to create easy shots.
Everything is related & every "small" drop off just compounds to every other area making the impact be worse.
Isolation, PNR, Post up stats
But at the same time, there are signs elsewhere that he can still get things done. Here are his isolation stats(freq, points per poss, FG%)
- 2020: 9.7% / 0.95 / 43.7%
- 2021: 9.6% / 0.91 / 40.9%
- 2022: 14.5% / 1.01 / 46.1%
- 2023: 16.2% / 1.05 / 47.6%
- 2024: 15.3% / 1.07 / 46.6%
His isolation is still effective when needed. There are games where he is engaged & can do the usual things he's done. It's just the consistency.
His PNR stats
- 2020: 35.5% / 0.86 / 37.5%
- 2021: 33.5% / 0.92 / 43.2%
- 2022: 21.9% / 0.92 / 43.2%
- 2023: 24.9% / 1.09 / 49.6%
- 2024: 20.7% / 0.84 / 37.3%
The freq again is a sign of being used more off-ball. That's a lot more standing in the corner or in the dunker spot if he's not involved. But he also had his least efficient season too.
Similar to his post ups
- 2020: 6.8% / 1.01 / 46.2%
- 2021: 6.2% / 1.03 / 52.0%
- 2022: 12.7% / 1.00 / 44.6%
- 2023: 10.3% / 0.94 / 46.4%
- 2024: 10.7% / 0.83 / 38.2%
This is decline is related to his mid-range shot disappearing & less rim shots. If he can't get to the rim, he's settling more for longer jumpers & that hasn't been a good shot for him.
1 main point about all of those actions is a lot of them are set up to be assisted. Even if they end in an isolation or post up, they start off ball – a lot of the times he's curling to go for shots.
54% of his rim shots are assisted – highest since 2019. 33% of his paint shots are assisted – highest since 2015.
This does show up in his impact metrics too:
Here's his EPM & LEBRON ranks over the years:
- EPM: 11th -> 6th -> 15th -> 5th -> 21st
- LEBRON: 6th -> 5th -> 12th -> 4th -> 25th
Defense
The defensive impact is concerning because that's usually a sign he's not engaged. Lowest steal rate since his rookie year at 1.9% and lowest block rate in his career at 0.8% & you get plays like this from him:
But then there's a switch & you get plays like this where Butler is having the same kind of impact defensively, particularly being a menace off ball:
But that's been the whole issue with Butler all year. Inconsistency. The switch was harder to click. Maybe this wasn't going to be an issue in playoffs. Maybe this was all about saving himself more. That's still an issue in itself to me, especially given his injury history & age
It's also a shame we didn't see him in the playoffs. That is the place where we could've seen more evidence of whether Butler has declined or not. We don't know yet if "when" the switch is hit if he can still produce. We also don't know if the switch can be hit in the first place & the fact it hasn't been to that extent in the regular season, is discouraging.
So, where does that leave Butler?
I guess I'm more hopeful considering he has a longer off-season to heal. But at the same time, he did finish the season with an injury & is getting older. I also don't think this season was like that because of "motivation".
You'd only be encouraged if you believed he was coasting a lot more by choice, willingly instead of his body not allowing him to. That's where I have some skepticism
HE IS GETTING OLDER WITH MORE INJURIES ADDING TO HIS HISTORY!!
Though, I'm still not out on him completely. I don't think you can't win with him, he just needs a lot more help in the regular season. That's why I thought it was "needed" to get a Mitchell or Dame to help save him.. Because right now, it's going to be the same thing. I don't think you can expect Butler to play at an elite level through 82 games & actually play & be aggressive AND do the same thing in the playoffs.
If he coasts again in the regular season to that extent, I still think the switch could be flipped in the playoffs because at this point that's the only way to judge him & after all of these years, he has "definitely" earned the benefit of the doubt.
What did you think of Butler's season? Was it just any different? Did you think he coasted more? Differently? Are we going to see a similar performance because of his body? Can the switch still be flipped?
by SimplyBallin
1 Comment
Our fanbase truly doesn’t bring up jimmy declining, they just wave it off like he’s lebron longevity wise but he’s not, the difference between jimmy in 2023 and 2024 is very apparent.
Like you mentioned if he’s gonna coast and defer all season long we are gonna be a 8th seed for 3 years in a row. No to mention we have been eclipsed by hella teams in the East, idc what heat fans say we can NOT magically turn the switch on by April.
And like others of mentioned if we are gonna squander our defensive anchors prime just by being a middle of pack team and hope for insane luck then the organization has lost the bust 😂