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@Golden State Warriors

Really helpful graphic showing which preseason team stats can be viewed as indicators of how they’ll do in the reg. season. Stats w/the highest correlation (ie preseason performance in the stat is more likely to carryover into the reg. season) start in the upper left, ie % pts midrange > 3PT Rate.



For guidance on how to interpret it row to row, Opp. 3PT Rate (upper right hand corner) > % Pts. off Fastbreak (first stat in 2nd row) > Pace, ie Opp. 3PT Rate in the preseason has a higher correlation with the corresponding regular season Opp. 3PT Rate than % Pts. off Fastbreak and % Pts. off Fastbreak has a higher correlation than Pace.

To put it another way, a team's % pts from Midrange in the preseason is the stat with the highest likelihood of carrying over into the regular season at the same or similar % and the Opp. 3P% a team holds their opponents to in the preseason has the lowest likelihood of carrying over.

by taygads

5 Comments

  1. So it seems like the highest correlations are in shot type, which is something determined by coaching. That makes sense, that it’s the approach to the game that carries over, not necessarily the results.

  2. TallnFrosty

    Not a shocker – variance in shooting percentages is expected. But **where** buckets come from correlates pretty well for both offense and defense, as does rebounding.

  3. Kdog122025

    So what you’re saying is the Dubs are launching 50 3’s a night?

  4. System_Lower

    Looks like teams have a style. 🤷‍♂️

  5. BuddhaBadmash

    Simple correlation heat map would have helped better brother, but anyway, not putting any eggs on the hope basket this season. Just here to enjoy this out.

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