[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/anthony-davis/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/anthony-davis/)
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/lebron-james/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/lebron-james/)
[https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/russell-westbrook/](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-player-projections/russell-westbrook/)
This is I believe the first time that Westbrook has been put in the “scrub” category by 538. Moreover, it appears that they may be a little low on AD due to his injury history over the past few seasons, along with a complete collapse of his free throw shooting. While LeBron averaged over 30 last season on good efficiency, I suppose the regression on the defensive end hurt his “projection.”
But how do you think these 3 players will be this coming season? Do you agree with 538’s projections based on what happened last year?
by Varolyn
37 Comments
Westbrook was last seen hanging out the passenger’s side of his best friend’s ride tryna holler at me
AD is so overrated it’s crazy
What about Pat Bev?
These projections look at trends. There is really no precedent for anything LeBron is doing at his age. Most players completely fall off a cliff around age 37 and 38 so their projection is likely counting on that. AD’s been hurt off and on forever, and Russ is coming off a Murphy’s Law season
Is it honestly that surprising that Westbrook has a negative WAR? He was a net negative on that Lakers team
Why do people even post 538? Every time it’s just “hey look at this super silly thing this shitty program is saying”
Oh I’m ready to throw hands Nate Silver
They also have Kevin Durant as a Borderline All Star. And they project Zion Williamson as being worth about half what the Pelicans just agreed to pay him.
538’s projections include a lot of skepticism about age and injury, which is fair based on past histories of hundreds of players. If AD and LeBron each play 60 games and are healthy for the playoffs, you can bet they will be All Star quality players. But can anyone be certain that will happen?
As for Westbrook, the problem doesn’t seem to be health. But that’s even worse, because if he was healthy and still played like that last year at age 32, why would anyone think he’ll be better this year at age 33?
Yeah that’s the thing about Russ IMO and I say that as a big fan : people thinking it’s a fit issue just ignore that he basically played half his season w/o Lebron, and was basically still bad, the fit is supposed to be a playoffs problem, if he was still a good version of himself it shouldn’t be a regular season problem, maybe he bounces back, maybe he adjust, but last year wasn’t a fit issue, it was a “Russ is not a good player anymore” issue.
He declined big time since he came back from the quad injury in the bubble, he’s not the same athlete, but worst that that some part of his games weirdly declined like his handle, his mid range shooting, and for all his “let be Russ” bravado, he clearly has lost confidence, he wouldn’t basically try to go for bank shots on that many mid range attempts if he was still as confident as before
Tell your GMs that 538 also projects Jakob Poeltl as a borderline all star and that he’s very available
Nate Copper
Accurate?….
Accounting for adding value to team wins over an 82 game season
The Russ take is accurate
They really have a “scrub” category? That’s cold.
Ready to hear people who don’t understand how projections work to make a big stink about this.
It categorizes Kawhi Leonard as “Key Role-player” lol
538 does not have a metric for DAWG IN EM
Oh I’m sure there’s a couple nephews who will take this and run with it
WAR is a cumulative stat, games played are dragging down LBJ and AD
If I’m basing it on last year primarily I guess I have to, but I don’t think that’s a very accurate way to gauge players who have been banged up on a dysfunctional team for a few seasons. I’m pretty confident that Lebron was capable of playing better D last year if the team was better, and I’m pretty confident that AD can get back into form with a little motivation. I don’t think Westbrook is a scrub, but I don’t think he’ll ever be a good complementary player like they want him to, so on the Lakers I don’t really see him improving significantly. But bottom line: by the production of the last few years, I can see how a computer model would come to those conclusions.
There’s a TLC joke somewhere for this
Apparently LaMelo is an MVP candidate. +8000 odds in Vegas right now if anyone wants to get rich!
I like this projection because it has LaMelo as an MVP Candidate 😃
Just shows how bad our season was last year
They put Draymond as key role player. I knew he was only a role player!
Said Kawhi was a role player. Sometimes, the numbers are bullshit
Interesting tool. Another notable is that they have LaMelo Ball in the ‘MVP candidate’ category. I like LaMelo a lot as he’s one of the most entertaining players in the NBA, but it feels early for him to be in that category
decided to check austin reaves just outta curiosity but it shows him IMMEDIATELY getting worse after this year… i wonder why
538 clearly got this one wrong, only AD should be categorized as a borderline all-star
538 is terrible. They picked the Warriors to miss the playoffs last season.
I got Lakers missing the play-in in projections I made last week, so sounds good to me.
538 uses trends and player comps to project these, and LeBron is essentially in an unprecedented space with his age and production. 538 also mostly uses regular season data I believe, where LeBron often coasts. Similarly for AD he didn’t contribute much in the last two years due to injury, so the model takes that into account. I think from a human perspective LeBron and AD project closer to 538’s “All Star” category, but this projection isn’t too egregious by any means.
These rankings track with the opinions on this sub but ultimately fails the r/nba Constanza rule. Anything which is a popular opinion here is almost always 100% wrong.
Ben Simmons – Key Role Player
Checks out ✔️
If Russell Westbrook somehow turned it around, and had a late-career renaissance it would just be wonderful.
Reminder 538 said last year that lakers weren’t going to make the playoffs and everyone was dunking on them. 538 overestimated the lakers.
Alternatively: model projects age related decline for oldest guy in league