Does Al Horford have an underrated chance at being an All-Star in the East this season? Yes, and here’s why!

I’m here to answer a question that no one else has asked, thought about, or cared about this season, but makes me very happy as an Al Horford fan. Can Al Horford be an all-star in the East this season? Before you dismiss me as a Celtics homer and move on, read through the reasons and you may find it’s not as impossible as you might initially think.

**Al Horford is still a high-impact player and can have star-level stats with higher usage.**

Al Horford is still a high-impact player as we saw last season, and especially in the playoffs and finals. The most recent datapoints show us that Al Horford is a star-level player with usage far below a player of his caliber. In the playoffs, he averaged 12.0 PTS on 52.3% FG (101/193), 48.0% 3PT (47/98), 77.8% FT (28/36), 9.3 REBS (1.3 Off. Rebs), 3.3 AST (1.3 TOV), 0.8 STL, 1.3 BLK in 35.4 MP, and **12.5 PTS on 60.5% FG (26/43), 62.5% 3PT (15/24), 66.7% FT (8/12), 8.5 REBS, 2.8 AST (1.6 TOV), 0.7 STL, 0.7 BLK in 31.8 MP** in the Finals.

The efficiency is astonishing and otherworldly frankly, particularly for the playoffs, and the volume is decent too, so it isn’t like this is a super small sample size. Horford has been an elite shooter from April last season, even in the regular season. Normally this might indicate that we need to drive more usage and sets towards Horford (e.g. we could get an open 3 for Horford almost every pick-and-pop with Brown/Tatum/Smart last season). Of course, as our only healthy true big on the roster, this may happen this year anyways, and while the efficiency might not be as high with more usage, the counting stats may go up and even averaging 14 and 9 could be enough to make him an All-Star, given the addition of his defense and our anticipated team success coming off a Finals run.

**Al Horford is old, but that doesn’t make him bad, just like LeBron James or Chris Paul.**

Al Horford is criminally underrated, even by Celtics fans. People love him as a team leader/dad, defender, and even respect him for his play but only with the caveat “at his age”. Still, nearly no one respects him enough for being arguably the most versatile 2-way (versatile does not mean best) big in the NBA this year besides a healthy Anthony Davis. With proper usage, Horford is still a star-level player simply due to his offensive and defensive versatility and skill. What he has lost in athleticism and quickness since 2017-2019 can be more than made up for by his even more elite shooting, and his defense is still top-notch. Horford is a 3-level scorer, being an outstanding 3-point shooter for a big, an all-time mid-range scorer, and still an adept post scorer. While Horford doesn’t have the same usage in the post or in pick-and-rolls due to his age, our offensive style this season, and the fact that our best 2 players are small forwards, he is still an all-round player and will get his fair share of usage as a shooter and to punish some weaker/smaller teams.

**Horford is in the right situation for this to be perhaps his last all-star season.**

With Robert Williams III out for the early part of the season, and a generally weak big man rotation besides Grant Williams, Horford will be heavily relied on as a big (both on offense and defense). I doubt he will get star-level usage on offense due to our guard strength and no elite pick-and-roll players, but as the only starter-level big, he will get significant play time and coverage nonetheless. Furthermore, Horford has stated that [he will be ready to play back-to-backs this season](https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/al-horford-celtics-workload-2022-23-season-back-to-backs-nba-playoffs-finals/), surprising and worrying many Celtics fans, but this also removes his availability from being a reason for lack of consideration for the All-star team.

**Who is next-in-line for the Celtics to be an All-Star after Jaylen/Jayson assuming decent individual play and team success?**

While some may argue guards like Marcus Smart, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon may have better usage/raw stats, I think it will be unlikely that they become all-stars given how stacked the East is at the guard position, and the fact that all three will cannibalize some stats from each other since they are on the same team. Horford does not have this problem this year. Furthermore, Horford also will be on voters’/coaches’ minds when they vote on reserves, as Horford went crazy in the playoffs when everyone was watching at the highest level (3rd best player for us), and coaches love Al Horford traditionally.

Lastly, there is precedence for non-traditional stars being All-Stars if a team is playing exceptionally well like the 2014-2015 Atlanta Hawks. That team had 4 All-Stars, one of which coincidentally was also Al Horford, though of course he *was* the best player on that team during that season. The other surprising All-Stars that season were Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver, who are much less versatile and impactful than even today’s Al Horford.

**The big men in the East are not stacked like they are in the West. Let’s take a look at the rest of the All-Star possibilities.**

1. **Guaranteed All-Stars** (barring injury): Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum
2. **Likely All-Stars:** Jimmy Butler, Pascal Siakam
3. **Dependent on top-3-level team success:** Ben Simmons (almost likely), Al Horford, Scottie Barnes
4. **Unlikely due to team success:** DeMar DeRozan, Julius Randle and RJ Barrett (Knicks unlikely to be good, and splitting with each other + Jalen Brunson), Cade Cunningham
5. **Unlikely even with team success due to stacked roster**: Evan Mobley & Jarrett Allen (have each other + Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland surrounding him), Nikola Vucevic
6. **Assuming they will be “guards”, but may change the landscape if not:** Jaylen Brown, Khris Middleton (NBA may swap Middleton and DeRozan given outcry last year), Ben Simmons (classified as guard in previous seasons)

So according to this list, we have 6 guaranteed/likely all-stars (which takes up the main starting and reserve spots). If we assume 1 of the wildcards will be a forward + 1 player being out due to injury (reasonable average assumption based on history), that leaves 2 spots, and gives Bam/Horford/DeRozan/Barnes a chance depending on the teams’ success in that order. Of the 3 teams, Celtics have the best chance at team success as rosters are currently constructed.

**Conclusion**

In conclusion, I think Al Horford has a higher chance than many would believe at being the 3rd All-Star for the Boston Celtics this season, joining Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum (and maybe even Marcus Smart below Horford if we truly go crazy this season). **Of course, that does not mean that it is guaranteed or even > 50% likelihood, since it still depends on Horford’s play, Celtics success, and the rest of the players’ play. But to dismiss it altogether just because of Horford’s “role” or “age” is also wrong, given the points mentioned above.**

**TL;DR:** Al Horford has an underrated chance at being the Celtics 3rd All-Star this season joining Jaylen/Jayson given the weak roster of big men in the Eastern conference, the predicted strong regular season performance of the Celtics, and his still star-level capabilities as seen just last season, assuming a slight uptick in usage due to RWIII’s injury and Celtics’ weak big man roster.

by 2016jackmaple2016