I’m seeing a lot of excitement and optimism about getting a good pick, but I wonder if people realize how small the odds are.
They’re really bad… Here’s what [Eric Walden tweeted today](https://twitter.com/tribjazz/status/1658479247445602310?s=46&t=n3idaLw7Zkq3tN1PRDQXnA) about the odds
The Jazz’s chances for each pick (per @tankathon):
No. 1: 4.5%
No. 2: 4.8%
No. 3: 5.2%
No. 4: 5.7%
No. 5: 0.0%
No. 6: 0.0%
No. 7: 0.0%
No. 8: 0.0%
No. 9: 50.7%
No. 10: 25.9%
No. 11: 3.0%
No. 12: 0.1%
No. 13: >0.0%
No. 14: 0.0%
by SometimesIComplain
27 Comments
I think people understand the odds aren’t great. If people thought the odds were great, they probably wouldn’t be making shrines to a whale statue.
With that in mind… ALL HAIL THE WHALE!!!
Yes, we all realize how percentages work. You’re not having some big brain moment that no one in recorded human history had missed up to this point.
It’s most likely we pick at 9. From there you can combine different potential outcomes to fit a narrative. Again, literally everyone here understands that.
Pick 9 is perfect. We have around a 20 percent odds to drop, if we don’t drop and stay at 9, I’m happy. The other Thompson twin, Cam, Taylor, Jarace, Anthony Black, or Cason, one of them should still be there around 9, and that’s great. I’ll be upset if we drop, but if we stay at 9, that’s perfect. However, if we jump to the top 4, that’d be amazing, but we have a 20 percent odds of going to the top 4
If we drop, I’ll be upset
If we stay at 9, that’s perfect
If we jump to the top 4, that would be amazing
Do you realize that a 20% chance means your odds of hitting is 1/5? Is that really that bad? I would not consider a 20.20% chance at improving our pick “really bad”
I am not expecting an improvement, but in terms of percentages 20% is not bad at all IMO. Idk if you’re trying to tamper expectations (why would you do that? shut up and have fun and root for a good pick) or maybe just being a party pooper
“9 is fine” is my unofficial slogan. Ten or worse would be a disaster
If we do better than 11, I will be happy. I’m sure we aren’t getting a top 4 but it’s nice to dream. If I had to bet, I bet we land at 10.
Fuck the odds.
#WE’RE GETTING WEMBY
There is a 0 percent chance we sign a guy like lebron james. So ill take any odds we can get.
People know the odds, but it’s fun to be optimistic in a moment like this. Don’t be a wet blanket.
Well top 3 picks have like a 20% chance of becoming an all-star anyways
Booooo
So you’re saying there’s a chance…
20% at a top 4 pick is something I can live with
Likely to stay 9th, which is totally fine. Maybe Ainge and Zanik find a way to move up.
Just as likely to move into the top 4 as we are to drop down 1.
I’m happy as long as we don’t fall any spots.
Buzz Killington
Can someone explain how it’s a 0% chance of a pick 5-8? That doesn’t make sense to me. You’d think the odds would just decrease naturally from the 9th spot
It’s understandable to feel excited and hopeful about getting a good pick, but people should definitely take into consideration how slim the odds actually are. The numbers don’t lie, and as Eric Walden pointed out, our chances for the top picks are pretty bad. It’s important to manage expectations and remember that luck plays a huge factor in the draft.
We are actually guaranteed to get the #1 pick. Adam silver owes us for fixing the Lakers and getting them to the WCF
BOOO GO AWAY LET US HAVE A HALF MOMENT OF OPTIMISM
Chicago had less than 2% to win when they got rose. Long shot but it’s been done
Never tell me the odds
So… you’re saying there’s a chance!!!!
I don’t math so good but I think that also means we have a 97% chance of a top 10 pick. I can get excited about that
“I saw people who were happy, optimistic, and excited about Jazz basketball… and I just couldn’t have that.”
Things with 20% likelihood happen very regularly, 1 time out of 5. Part of the fun of events like this is knowing you have a small, but not unfathomable, chance at getting lucky. Why not just let people enjoy the thrill of the lottery?
>No. 5: 0.0%
No. 6: 0.0%
No. 7: 0.0%
No. 8: 0.0%
How?
20.2% chance of jumping to 4 or higher? I’ll take those odds. Much better than being the inverse and falling.