So I know a lot of people are disappointed with the 4th pick outcome from last night’s lottery, but I thought I might try and make the case for selecting Amen Thompson with the 4th overall pick. While Amen is not a Wemby or Scoot level prospect, he’s certainly still a VERY good prospect worthy of the 4th overall pick that fills a lot of our team needs. Lot of text below, so here’s a TL;DR up front.
**TL;DR**. Amen has ELITE playmaking and physical tools that will translate to the NBA. Jumbo-sized playmakers are one of the most valued positions in the NBA and we have a chance to draft one at pick #4 who has ridiculously high potential (greater than Scoot IMO). While the shooting is a concern right now, it shouldn’t stop us from taking a swing on a guy with legit NBA superstar upside.
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* Addressing the OTE Concern
* While yes, the OTE league where Amen played this past year is not up to par with the G-League or NCAA, people completely dismissing Amen due to the level of competition in OTE are completely missing the point. You evaluate draft prospects based on the tools they are coming into the league with, and Amen has several ELITE tools that are going to translate to the NBA regardless of competition. People using the “competition” excuse to pass on Amen would’ve also done the same for Shaedon Sharpe who only had tape against high school players last draft, yet Shaedon looks like one of the most promising young players in the league. Don’t use competition as an excuse to completely overlook what is a good prospect (he’s #3-4 on nearly every draft board for a reason). IMO, just using the OTE competition level to discredit Amen is a lazy, cop-out opinion. The level of competition he played against says nothing about him individually as a player.
* Athleticism
* The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie (one of the best draft experts our there) put it best when he said Amen “will be a top 5 athlete in the NBA the moment he’s drafted”. In a league full of athletic outliers, this is a pretty crazy statement, but it is true. Amen has an elite first step, an insanely good vertical leap off of 1 or 2 feet, and he’s also very quick laterally and can change directions on a dime. All of these elite athletic tools will help him a ton in the NBA.
* Frame/Defense:
* Amen was just measured at the combine this week. He’s 6’5.75” tall (without shoes) with a 7’0” wingspan. For reference this is about the same size as Andre Iguodala but with a 1 inch longer wingspan. So Amen has legit SF size which is a huge tool for a guy set to be a point guard in the NBA. His frame and athletic tools should also allow him to guard 1-3 easily along with guarding smaller 4s. He has a ton of potential on defense, but just needs to find consistency on that end moving forward as he still shows defensive lapses from time to time.
* Playmaking
* This is Amen’s best attribute after his otherworldly athleticism. Amen has extremely good playmaking instincts this should allow him to play as a PG in the NBA. Amen can make every pick and roll read in the book, and has even shown the ability to manipulate the defense to open up passing lanes. Combine this passing ability with his height and his elite athleticism, and you have the potential for an NBA superstar. Large wing playmakers like Luka and Lebron are probably the most sought after archetype in the NBA and rightfully so, if you have an elite one then it’s a huge boost for your team.
* Amen does have a tendency to overcomplicate things for himself, opting for the tougher pass when the easy read would suffice which has lead to higher turnover numbers than you’d like to see. This is something that will need to be worked on in the NBA.
* Shooting
* This is probably my biggest concern with Amen for me. At the moment, Amen has a very broken jumper and hasn’t shown the ability to consistently hit shots from outside. With outside shooting being arguably the most important skill in the modern NBA, this is an issue. However, there have been plenty of draft prospects with questionable jump shots that have been able to make a major impact in the NBA like former MVPs Russell Westbrook and Derrick Rose. Coincidentally, the players have that have overcome similar shooting struggles are also ones with elite athletic and playmaking tools just like Amen. While this is a concern, I don’t think it will prevent Amen from being a productive NBA player even if the shot never comes around.
* Ball Handling:
* Amen’s handle is solid, but is still a work in progress. He’ll most likely have some ball security issues during his first 1-2 years in the league, but he has a solid enough base that I wouldn’t mark it as a major concern for him as a prospect.
* Improvement over the Season and Work Ethic
* Amen showed major improvement this season going from the OTE regular season into the OTE playoffs. During the regular season, Amen’s shooting splits were 54.3/25.0/61.0 but during the playoffs they jumped up to 50.0/33.3/77.0. This increase in outside shooting percentages also coincided with a slight change in jumper form. While the “better” numbers here still aren’t great, I do think the improvement is promising and to me it shows that the jumper is still fixable. I don’t think he’ll ever be Steph Curry, but if he can become a 34-35% 3pt shooter like Ja where teams need to at least respect the shot a bit, that will be a huge boost to his play.
* In addition to his outside shooting improvement, Amen increased his assist numbers from 5.6 APG to 9.3 APG during the playoffs while keeping his turnovers at the same level. This huge jump in production over the course of the season is very promising not only because it shows continuous improvement, but also because it occurred during a jump-up in competition during the playoffs.
* Amen has been rumored to have really stellar work ethic and I think the improvement over the season supports that. Amen is a project player, but by all accounts he has shown the work ethic to make the most of his potential. For me, work ethic becomes extremely important when you talk about project players and Amen definitely hits the mark here.
What his potential fit looks like in Houston:
* Defensively, Amen is exactly what Udoka wants at the PG position. He’s extremely athletic and long with the ability to switch 1-4. His 7′ wingspan combined with the 7’2” wingspans of Tari and Jabari could be the makings of an extremely good defense.
* Offensively, Amen fills a giant hole in our roster as a perimeter playmaker. IMO, he would be our long term starting point guard moving forward. His ability to create a ton of rim pressure should create open looks for shooters, and he’s shown a really good ability to hit the roll man in the PnR which should help Sengun out as well.
* The only question mark with fit for Amen comes from his shooting. He’s a negative shooter right now which will hurt our spacing in the near term. If we draft Amen, I think it’ll become even more important for Sengun to develop a solid outside shot. With Sengun shooting 33% from 3 this past year, I think this is definitely a possibility.
NBA Comparison:
* Hyper-athletic Josh Giddey with slightly worse playmaking
* 6’7” Ja Morant with a worse outside shot (and not a head-case)
Good Scouting Report Videos:
[Adam Spinella – Amen Thompson Scouting Report (YouTube)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TPGAz4pQMQ&ab_channel=AdamSpinella)
[Hoop Intellect – Amen Thompson Scouting Report (YouTube)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDJHiW4CGQ8&ab_channel=HoopIntellect)
by RTLT512
12 Comments
Iād also like to the note the following on Amen wanting to go to college for the competition and academics (their family members were mainly college graduates and emphasized) but was turned onto the fact of being able to work:
> Amen, again, didn’t share his brother’s opinion.
> “I didn’t want to go [with OTE],” he says. “I didn’t want to be, like, the first to do it. My mom and dad wanted me to go, and Ausar was kind of considering it. He was 50-50. I was … stern on my ‘no.'”
> It was the appeal of the nonstop training and future high-tech facility that finally swayed him. “Our goal was always to be, like, the best NBA players ever. So, college or not, it really didn’t affect that,” he says.
([ESPN article on Twins and OTE](https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/34487913/the-thompson-twins-elite-unproven-path-nba))
The reason the OTE thing matters so much is that, what his struggles are, were much more hidden in OTE than they would have been in college or the g league. Even in OTE, he clearly struggled in the half court at times, and that was against high school aged competition as a 20 year old.
I just think if he would have gone to a college instead of OTE, his draft stock would have fallen a lot over the year, as his half court issues in the college game (which is so half court centric, and where spacing is so often an issue) would have been a big issue. Look how much prospects like Nick Smith fell in rankings over a college season — given what his issues are, I think against tougher comp, that is what would have happened to Amen.
Bruh he didnāt even translate to a HS league but you think he will to an nba league?
Amen Propaganda
This is easily the post of the day! Going into the draft lottery I was hoping that we were at least in the top 4. In my opinion, that’s where the likely star potential drops off. I see star written all over Amen. I can easily see him being the best player on this team in 5 years. Amen has more upside (and a lower floor) than Scoot in my opinion and he plays the position which happens to be our greatest need.
If I’m GM I’m not signing Harden, I’m drafting this kid and I’m sitting back and relaxing and watching him develop over the years.
I’m fully on board with drafting Amen if he’s the one to fall to #4, but from the responses I got in other threads seems to be that people just can’t get over the shooting issues. And unfortunately that’s something that won’t be known one way or another until probably his 2nd year. So not much we can say about that for now.
From a development standpoint to me the issue is that he works best right now with a shooting big. Jabari can be that guy but Sengun is not unless he develops a more consistent 3pt shot. But if we have a non-shooting big on the court with him I feel the space can be too constrained. For people questioning his OTE tape, to me that’s the main issue with watching these lower level competition. You don’t have that NBA level shooting to open up the court. And that’s something that actually may get better with the Rockets and show off more of his playmaking.
Guys please stop eating up the hype from BSPN about who they say should be the consensus no. 4 pick. I’d rather not go through another season where our lottery pick severely underperforms and we have to do 100 times the extra work to try to turn him into even a serviceable rotation player.
Heās a playmaker with size and freakish athleticism. Maybe Udoka can unlock more to his game that OTE wasnāt able to. Iām still open to moving the pick but if weāre selecting 4th then I think Amen is the right fit.
The freak athleticism and playmaking ability are there, but my two concerns with Amen remain the same:
* playing against *high-schoolers* in OTE. If he isnāt dominating them every game, how do we expect him to be good in the NBA? Thatās much lower tier competition than NBL or the G-League.
* horrible shooting percentage. Iāve seen āKawhiās shooting was bad too as a prospect and look how he turned outā arguments from Amen supporters, but Kawhiās shooting out of college was still better than Amenās numbers.
To me he seems like Ben Simmons 2.0, where great defense is negated by no shooting ability, and we saw how his time with the Sixers went. And thatās assuming Amen isnāt a bust.
If the Rockets do take Amen at 4, then theyāre confident his shooting can be improved to acceptable levels. And even that has a lot of boom-bust potential.
Portland is open to trading from 3. If scoot is there then we should jump up to 3
He couldnāt dominate a league that was only D2 or D3 talent. Dude shouldāve been scoring 25-30 points a game, but he canāt shoot.
Heās not an elite prospect by any means. He didnāt go to college or the G League to avoid being exposed.
He shot below 30% from a high school 3 point line against terrible competition. He shot 65% from the free throw line. Significantly worse than Kawhi. This is not good. Kawhi was playing against bigger and faster players, so Thompson shooting bad is a big negative.
Jeez. These post gonna be every hour?
Maybe we just need a pinned post for all these threads.