Link here https://www.espn.com/nba/bpi/_/view/playoffs
This is the said model that everyone keeps quoting 3% based on. It gave the heat 13% odds after winning game 1. For comparison 538 now gives the Heat a 70% chance.
by wormhole222
@National Basketball Association
33 Comments
Let’s go heat, fuck the celtics
Idk about you guys, but I’m doubling down on my Celtics title bet.
Time for a bunch of un-ironic “I rolled this dice 6 times and I didn’t roll a single 5. Therefore you don’t have a 1/6 shot at rolling a 5.” comments
This is a shocker. The heat won the first two games on the road and they ONLY have a 35% to win the series??? Model is flawed
Analyst is need to allocate a certain % of their formula to “dawg”
Its 98% why is it at 35 wtf.
According to all known laws of basketball metrics, there is no way that the Heat should be able to win. Its wings are too inconsistent from 3 to get old Udonis Haslem in to the Finals.
The Heat, of course, win anyway, because the Heat don’t care what nerds think is impossible.
its a formula based off their shitty regular season performance we get it, stop crying already theres no opinion involved
Didn’t the give the Warriors a 5% chance last season?
?? It doesn’t look like they update the team ratings according to their playoff performance. 538, as unreliable as they are, at least rates Heat 6th best in NBA now.
Beyond the fact that the model is slow to account for Miami’s success, it also hurts Miami’s odds in the model that the Nuggets have started to pull away from the Lakers. A lot of the ping pong balls in the model that favored the Heat came from the matchup against the Lakers scenario.
Where they getting these numbers? Forget this series I wouldn’t even give the Celtics a 47% chance to beat the Nuggets
Lol, it’s funny how statistics and predictions based on statistics work. If we go by the numbers, Boston is easily the best most talented and most complete team left in the playoffs, but based on eye test, almost everyone is sure they have no chance of winning the NBA finals if they even GET there. This team plays without a sense of urgency and is very overconfident.
Lol when miami wins the chip they will only increase winning percentage to 38
said it when it was at 3%, i’ll say it again now: that isn’t analytics
Joe’s refusal to make adjustments and call time outs says my statistical model gives the Heat a 100% chance of winning the series.
The TV timeouts don’t count Joe.
And Jimmy fuckin Bucket Butler.
The 538 projections mentioned, for comparison: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions
If the Celtics get eliminated they still have a 47% chance of winning the title
Jimmy buckets to be the ECF MVPPPPPPPPPP
Celtics 88% chance to beat the Warriors last year
Celtics 47% chance to win the Chip this year
Add in the Heat and they spell disaster for the Celtics.
It’s over, completely fade them.
CHOOSING ODDS, OVER ME?!?
ESPN is dog shit. Mazula shouldn’t even be a head coach and is getting destroyed. No way they have a 65% chance to win 4 games before Miami wins another 2. And a 47% chance to win the title is absurd
If you took last years number 1 seeded Heat’s stats this number would look a lot better.
Looks the caliber of the Heat team last year is more indicative than this years regular season. Also the caliber of Butler/Bam/Spo since the bubble is more indicative.
For whatever reasons – injury, rhythm, mentality, experimenting etc the heat underperformed in the regular season. They look more like the first seed from last year
celtics should have a 3% chance of winning the title after how they’ve looked the past two games
18% chance of a tie?
JxmyHighroller shitting his pants right now
All eastern teams out of the playoffs cheering the Heat.
Greatest underdog story in basketball in the making
Heat take 3-0 lead
“Heat now have 49% chance to make the finals; Celtics still favored”
ESPN just makes up numbers for clicks guys
Heat about to win someone a shit ton of money if they win the Finals lol
It’s actually 35% chance to make the finals. They give them a 5% chance to win lmao
I hate basketball nerds, especially the ones at 538 getting literally every prediction wrong. Basketball is more than metrics
If Joe cuts his time rewatching The Town in half and uses that time to watch more film, the Celtics might have a chance