Lakers Off-season Information/Discussion

#Key Dates

Date | Importance
:– | :–
June 22nd | NBA draft day
June 29th | Last day for decisions on player, team, and early termination options
June 29th | Last day for teams to make qualifying offers to players eligible for restricted free agency
June 30th | Last day for players eligible for veteran extensions in 2022/23 to sign them
June 30th | Teams can begin negotiating with free agents (5:00 pm CT)
July 1st | Trade moratorium begins
July 6th | Trade moratorium period ends (11:01 am CT)

 

When the moratorium period begins:

– Restricted free agents can sign an offer sheet.

– Teams can begin signing players to rookie scale contracts, minimum salary contracts, and two-way contracts.

When the moratorium period ends:

– Teams can begin officially signing players, extending players, and completing trades.

– The 24-hour period for matching an RFA offer sheet signed during the moratorium begins.

***

#Incoming Players

Player Name | Added via | Contract
:– | :– | :–
TBD | 17th overall draft selection | TBD
TBD | 47th overall draft selection | TBD

***

#Retained Players

Player Name | Retained via | Details
:– | :– | :–
LeBron James | Under contract | Signed through 24-25 season (final year player-option)
Anthony Davis | Under contract | Signed through 24-25 season (final year player-option)
Jarred Vanderbilt | Under contract | Signed through 23-24 season
Max Christie | Under contract | Signed through 23-24 season
Cole Swider | Under contract | 2-way contract signed through 23-24 season

***

#Non-guaranteed Players

Player Name | Non-guaranteed status | Details
:– | :– | :–
Malik Beasley | Team-option | Team option dead-line on 6/29/23
Mohamed Bamba | Non-guaranteed contract | Fully guaranteed on 6/29/23
Shaquille Harrison | Non-guaranteed contract | Fully guaranteed on 1/10/24

***

#Free Agents

Player Name | Free agent status | Details
:– | :– | :–
Austin Reaves | Restricted free agent | [[1]](https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2023/5/20/23731296/nba-free-agency-rumors-lakers-austin-reaves-rui-hachimura-dangelo-russell-contract-extension “Lakers will match any offer on Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura”), [[2]](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/lakers-austin-reaves-is-making-a-leap-but-gilbert-arenas-rule-may-make-it-hard-for-la-to-pay-him-for-it/ “Austin Reaves falls under the Gilbert Arenas provision”)
Rui Hachimura | Restricted free agent | [[1]](https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2023/5/20/23731296/nba-free-agency-rumors-lakers-austin-reaves-rui-hachimura-dangelo-russell-contract-extension “Lakers will match any offer on Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura”)
Scottie Pippen Jr. | Restricted free agent | —
D’Angelo Russell | Free agent | Lakers have full bird rights, [[1]](https://lakersnation.com/lakers-rumors-dangelo-russell-l-a-continue-to-have-mutual-interest-in-contract-extension/ “Lakers Rumors: D’Angelo Russell & L.A. Continue To Have Mutual Interest In Contract Extension”), [[2]](https://www.silverscreenandroll.com/2023/5/20/23731296/nba-free-agency-rumors-lakers-austin-reaves-rui-hachimura-dangelo-russell-contract-extension “tabled D’Angelo Russell extension talks until after season”)
Wenyen Gabriel | Free agent | Lakers have early-bird rights (~$11.4m)
Troy Brown Jr. | Free agent | Lakers have non-bird rights ($2m)
Dennis Schröder | Free agent | Lakers have non-bird rights ($2m)
Lonnie Walker IV | Free agent | Lakers have non-bird rights ($7.8m)

***

#Current Roster

Player Name | Cap amount (or cap-hold amount)
:– | :–
LeBron James | $46.9m
Anthony Davis | $40.6m
Jarred Vanderbilt | $4.7m
Max Christie | $1.7m
Malik Beasley | $16.5m (team-option)
Mohamed Bamba | $10.3m (non-guaranteed)
Shaquille Harrison | $2.4m (non-guaranteed)
D’Angelo Russell | $38.7m (cap-hold)
Rui Hachimura | $18.8m (cap-hold)
Lonnie Walker IV | $7.8m (cap-hold)
Austin Reaves | $2.2m (cap-hold)
Troy Brown Jr. | $2m (cap-hold)
Dennis Schröder | $2m (cap-hold)
Wenyen Gabriel | $1.9m (cap-hold)
Scottie Pippen Jr. | $1.8m (qualifying offer)
FRP cap-hold | $3m (cap-hold)
Cole Swider | $547k
**Total payroll** | **TBD**
**Projected cap** | **$134m**
**Luxury tax cut-off** | **$162m**
**Luxury tax apron (hard-cap)** | **$170.5m**
**Second apron [(new CBA)](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/nba-to-phase-in-second-tax-apron.html)** | **$179.5m**

***

#Available Exceptions

Exceptions | Salary
:– | :–
[Mid-level Exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2021/07/hoops-rumors-glossary-mid-level-exception-5.html) | TBD
[Minimum salary exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/07/hoops-rumors-glossary-minimum-salary-exception-3.html) | [Depends](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2022/08/early-nba-minimum-salary-projections-for-2023-24.html)
[Traded player exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/01/hoops-rumors-glossary-traded-player-exception-4.html) | $2.7m (expires 2/09/2024)
[Traded player exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/01/hoops-rumors-glossary-traded-player-exception-4.html) | $2.3m (expires 2/09/2024)
[Traded player exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/01/hoops-rumors-glossary-traded-player-exception-4.html) | $1.8m (expires 2/09/2024)
[Traded player exception](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/01/hoops-rumors-glossary-traded-player-exception-4.html) | $1.8m (expires 2/09/2024)

***

#Predictions, Projections, and Analysis

As we enter the off-season, LeBron, AD, Vanderbilt, and Christie are the team’s only guaranteed contracts.

While we’ll be in a temporary lull in all things Laker related, things will heat up quite quickly starting with the draft on June 22nd. Between then and the 29th, we’ll have the answer to probably the most important off-season question. What the team decides to do with the team-option of Beasley and the non-guaranteed contract of Bamba will give us insight into how willing ownership is to spend big. In recent times, the most this team has been willing to pay in luxury tax has been in the mid ~$30m range. If the team keeps Beasley and Bamba, it’s likely they’re willing to go over and significantly over. If they drop the team option on Beasley and/or waive Bamba, they’re clearly doing it to dampen the luxury tax hit. The 29th is the deadline for that decision.

The next things on the to watch list are the players the Lakers are intending to re-sign. They’ve made it clear they will match offers on Reaves and he should be the 1st priority. Reaves is protected by the Gilbert Arenas provision so any and all opposing offers can be matched at a first year starting salary of the early-bird max (~$11.4m, also the full MLE value) and a second year salary of 5% more (~$11.9m). It is not until third and fourth year that any potential offer can truly balloon in annual cap-hit up to the league max (projected ~$37m third year and ~$39m fourth year). While opposing teams will be cap-hit at the AAV (average annual value) of ~$25m on such a max offer (and thus will be required to have cap-space of ~$25m to make the offer), the Lakers annual cap-hits are based on the yearly salary. So, regardless of the total contract value, the maximum cap-hit Reaves will incur for the Lakers is ~$11.4m next season and ~$11.9m the season after. While his annual salary might balloon after that, it might not matter since LeBron and AD will be expiring.

Rui, the other player the Lakers have said they’ll match any offer for, is a conventional first-round pick RFA and should be the 2nd priority. For Rui and Reaves, while it’s possible they’ll negotiate extensions sooner, June 30th is likely when news will start to surface regarding any extension with July 1st being the date when opposing teams can make RFA offers and we’ll get a concrete idea of how much they’ll cost.

While D’Angelo Russell is a lower priority for re-signing, he’s likely the most impactful purely from a team-construction point-of-view and the value of his contract will be another significant indicator for the type of off-season we can expect. Prior to the playoffs, some projections had his next contract in the mid ~$20m to ~$30m range. A contract at that value would’ve made subsequent roster decisions much more painful in terms of the luxury tax implications. At ~$20m or lower, the team would have a lot more flexibility overall. The major issue is that in negotiations, Russell does have leverage. Since the Lakers are almost surely operating over the cap, even if they allow D’Angelo to leave, it doesn’t free up any meaningful cap-space. The best case scenario in that situation would be to sign-and-trade him to whichever team signs him via free agency but the expected return on value for that is still quite poor.

Beyond those three, Wenyen, Walker IV, TBJ, and Schroder are also key free agents. The main thing to consider when gauging the value in re-signing these players is the alternative. Outside of the MLE, the Lakers will most likely be filling out the rest of the roster with minimum salary exceptions due to being over the cap. So, if these players are not re-signed, they will likely be replaced by minimum salary players. With Wenyen, the Lakers can offer up to the early-bird of ~$11.4m which is more than enough to keep him. With Lonnie, the Lakers can offer up to the non-bird of ~$7.8m which is more than the projected TPMLE next season and a competitive offer. With TBJ and Schroder, the most the Lakers can offer is the non-bird of $2m which is less than they would make with a veteran minimum exception. With TBJ and Schroder, the team would likely need to sign them using a part of or all of the MLE. The decision regarding these players will likely come down to whether or not they’re worth the added luxury tax over signing a veteran minimum exception.

Throughout much of what I’ve written, you’ve probably seen a repeated theme — the luxury tax. Like it or not, the luxury tax is likely the main and major determining factor in this team’s off-season outside of a bombshell announcement like LeBron retiring. Here is an example of why —

 

Player Name | Cap amount
:– | :–
LeBron James | $46.9m
Anthony Davis | $40.6m
D’Angelo Russell | $20m
Rui Hachimura | $18m
Malik Beasley | $16.5m
Austin Reaves | $11.4m
Mohamed Bamba | $10.3m
TPMLE | $7m
Jarred Vanderbilt | $4.7m
Max Christie | $1.7m
FRP | $3.6mm
Veteran minimum exception | $2m
Veteran minimum exception | $2m
Rookie minimum exception (SRP) | $1.1m
**Total payroll** | **$185.8m**
**Luxury tax cut-off** | **$162m**
**Luxury tax apron (hard-cap)** | **$170.5m**
**Second apron [(new CBA)](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/nba-to-phase-in-second-tax-apron.html)** | **$179.5m**
**Margin above the cut-off** | **$23.8m**

 

Above is a roughly assembled list of projected salaries for a 14 man 2023-2024 roster. Even with D’Angelo Russell signing for $20m and opting for veteran minimums over bringing back players like Walker IV and Wenyen, the team still has a $185.8m payroll and a [~$84m luxury tax bill](https://hoopshype.com/2018/10/11/nba-luxury-tax/). That’s more than double any previous tax bill this team has paid and they previously let Caruso leave over a lesser luxury tax bill. If the team packages Bamba and/or Beasley in a trade, their potential payroll might be even higher.

They’re also over both the [1st and 2nd tax apron introduced in the new CBA](https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2023/04/nba-to-phase-in-second-tax-apron.html) though depending on when the new CBA rules are phased in, this might not be a major issue.

For added context, if they simply drop Beasley’s team-option from that projected roster, their tax bill decreases ~$60m down to ~$24m. But, obviously, they would no longer be able to use his salary in trades.

by BrianC_