I’ve been saying since the Draft Lottery, Amen Thompson, who is the better prospect, will not be picked after Brandon Miller.

Now that the bizarre Miller to the Hornerts narrative is finally turning (Miller is in an entirely different tier of prospect than Scoot) there seems to be clear chance that Miller will be dropping to pick 4.

Really I think the only real chance Miller has at going at three is if Portland **both keeps their pick, and keeps Dame on the roster**. In this case it makes sense that Portland would take Miller to help bolster the cast around Dame in hope of being competitive with their franchise legend.

Here’s why I think Miller will not be the pick at three if either dame is moved or Portland trades the pick.

**Miller does not project as a heliocentric offensive first option in the NBA.**

Now this doesn’t mean that Miller won’t be a great NBA player, it is just that his projected role is more of a 3&D role player who needs another dominant offensive player to create advantages for him. Miller is a valuable piece for a team looking to be competitive now, but I would argue is not an ideal prospect for a team looking to find a offensive star that they can build their offensive identity around. When you are picking in the Top 5, you really want to take a swing at one of these players, and I think there are three clear top options in this draft, wemby, scoot, and Amen. So what skills correspond to a heliocentric offensive identity setting prospect. I would say you would want 2 of these 3 characterisitics: Passing (key being the ability to both create **and** capitalize on advantages for teammates at a high level), Ability to generate and convert efficient scoring at the rim (can be through FT’s as well), Have the ability to manipulate the pace and spacing of the half court game. What really makes a player a top tier heliocentric offensive prospect is a freak of nature aspect whether it be frame of athleticism. Some combination of the above characteristics is the backbone of what an offensive star has – think the player you want to have the ball in the hands most of the time when facing a set defense.

**Miller has a huge red flag in his inability to finish at the rim** and it really limits his projection as an offensive star. Yes he has great shooting numbers and shooting tape, but tough shot making is not a sustainable method for powering a offense. Good offenses use tough shot making not as their bread and butter, but as a supplementary offensive option.

And this leads back to why I think Miller is of lower standing as a top end prospects than say the three aforementioned guys. For most teams picking at the very top – they are not looking for an elite supplementary offensive piece, but that main offensive piece that they are able to build around. An elite supplementary piece is only very useful when you already have an offensive engine in place to supplement. Portland is in an unique place as they currently have that offensive engine in Dame. However, if they were to either move Dame or trade that pick to another team without an offensive engine then I find it more than likely that Amen will be the target at three. Which would leave us the short end of the stick as happened last year.

This blurb about Miller from [https://nbadraftnetwork.com/](https://nbadraftnetwork.com/) really encapsulates the issue with Miller.

“39% FG at the rim in the halfcourt; 26th percentile P&R ball handler; 44th percentile in ISO on 8% of his possessions; 4 total FGs between 17 feet and the three point line

These numbers wouldn’t matter as much for a mid-first round pick you wanted to be a role player, but if Miller’s path to being a primary option is much narrower if he can’t create or score inside efficiently.”

Keep an eye on what Portland decides to do. As a Rockets fan, I do really hope we have the chance to take Amen as we are one of the teams looking for an offensive engine. I would encourage the Rockets FO to really think about trading up to three or down from four if it becomes clear Miller is the prospect to drop out of the top 4.

by partyA119long