Pre-Free Agency Cap Analysis + Forecast

I have been wanting to do a cap analysis / projection since the season ended but I wanted to wait until at least the draft had passed to forecast things more accurately. I’m glad I waited because I think its safe to say that no one saw us trading Marcus Smart for Kristaps Porzingis. You can take a look where we are without any projections by checking out spotrac: [https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly/cap/](https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/yearly/cap/)

**First forecast: Word on the street is we are extending Porzingis for 2 years. I’m going to estimate 2 extra years with 7.5% raises (Basically 2 years 80 million).**

Porzingis is young and coming off a good season, I can’t see him really taking *less* money than hes currently making with knowledge that the cap will keep rising. This feels like a fair compromise. At the time the extension begins in 2024-25, his annual salary would be \~26% of the projected cap ($149,600,000).

**Second forecast: Grant Williams gets shipped out for minor compensation (second round pick(s) )**

Grant unfortunately finds himself as the odd man out this offseason. After betting on himself last summer, things went rather poorly for him- he had an up and down season he found himself out of the rotation come playoff time (although he did work his way back in towards the end). Initially, the Celtics initially were projected to match offers for Grant. After acquiring Porzingis sizable $36 million salary the whole league knows this is likely not true anymore. Retaining Grant will put the Celtics over the second tax apron, which is more risk than the reward.

A quick summary of the penalties of exceeding the second tax apron…

* No access to the Taxpayer MLE (which was used to sign Gallo last year)
* Cannot send out more salary than receiving in trades (when under the second apron you can receive up to 125% + 100k of outgoing salary
* Your draft pick 7 years out becomes ‘frozen’ (unable to be used in trades). Exceeding the second apron two times in a four year span results in the frozen pick being penalized. The frozen pick is moved to the last pick in the round, regardless of your record that year.

Most likely the Celtics brass believes they can replace Grant’s production alone with an MLE candidate, let alone the other associated boogeyman of the second tax apron. I’ll always remember that Milwaukee game 7, “I’ma make em both”, getting in Jimmy Butler’s face (actually I was a fan of that). Anyways..

Speaking of the second apron, it will be interesting to see how afraid Brad and Mike are afraid of it going forward. It seems like the strategy thus far has been to

1. Avoid the second apron this year- even just the cap impact of the 25th pick could have precluded them from having access to the tax payer MLE (projected value would have most likely been \~2.7 million)
2. Stock up on cheap, cost controlled talent in future years (from the Smart trade they now have two first round picks in 2024 and four extra second round picks in the coming years

**Third forecast: Jaylen Brown will sign a five year, 285 million dollar extension**

I am admittedly a bit of a Jaylen Brown ‘hater’. I think the 35% max on him is an overpay for his impact on the court. However, I think there exists a compromise which could be reached bewteen the two sides. For those who don’t know, a player’s max contract is most commonly tied to his number of years in the NBA. Most commonly-

* **0-6 years of service:** Eligible for 25 percent of the salary cap
* **7-9 years of service:** Eligible for 30 percent of the salary cap
* **10 or more years of service:** Eligible for 35 percent of the salary cap

The avenue for which Jaylen would sign an extension is called the *Designated Veteran Player Extension*, which permits a player with seven or eight years of NBA experience (Jaylen currently has 7) to sign an extension for *up to 35% of the salary cap.* As you can see, this effectively allows a player who has not accrued the requisite number of season to earn the highest tier of contract extensions. The term “supermax” is not a CBA term but it effectively means *a five year, 35% of the salary capextension with 8% raises*. The reason I point this out is that a player like Bradley Beal received a “supermax” because his free agency was timed well (he became a FA right after he accrued his 10th season), whereas a player like Giannis earned the same contract ahead of schedule via the DVPE. This is relevant because when analyzing the Jaylen situation, he should be compared to players who inked an extension with the DVPE.

If you notice the language above with the contract extensions, it uses the phrase *up to* a certain percentage. This is important. Notably, Rudy Gobert signed a DVPE for roughly 31.5% of the salary cap, despite being eligible for 35% of the cap. Is there any reason that Jaylen Brown and the Celtics can’t strike a similar bargain, in the range of 31-33% of the cap? Lets be honest with ourselves- Jaylen Brown is not on the level of other players who have signed for a full DVPE such Giannis, Jokic, Embiid, or Booker. Even Gobert, who is often maligned, was a more credentialed player at the time he earned the 31.5% max than Brown is right now. Some may say Jaylen is better than KAT, but I would counter with the argument that almost no one thinks KAT is worth that money. So that is not evidence Jaylen should get it.

**Fourth Forecast- Sign someone with the Tax Payer MLE (Daring, I know)**

The Celtics have a pretty amazing roster as constructed- quite an impressive top 7. There are a lot of directions they could try to go with their MLE- Seth Curry, Lonnie Walker, Bruce Brown (doubtful, I know), etc. As well as some nice minimum targets like TJ Warren and Thomas Bryant.

Penciling Jaylen in for 32.5% max, Porzingis extension discussed above, and a placeholder for Taxpayer MLE and we get this rough look at the payroll moving forward. Keep in mind anything beyond the current league year is an estimate, as the cap numbers are tied to basketball related revenue. I’ve also gone ahead and put Tatum on for a 35% max, because, duh.

||Salary|Salary|Salary|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|Player|2023-24|2024-25|2025-26|
|Jayson Tatum|$32,600,060|$34,848,402|$57,610,000|
|Jaylen Brown|$31,830,357|*$48,620,000*|*$52,509,600*|
|Al Horford|$10,000,000|$9,500,000||
|Derrick White|$18,357,143|$19,571,429||
|Malcolm Brogdon|$22,500,000|$22,500,000||
|Kristaps Porzingis|$36,016,200|*$38,717,415*|*$41,621,221*|
|Robert Williams|$11,556,000|$12,412,000|$13,268,000|
|Taxpayer MLE|$7,126,891|$7,483,236||
|Payton Pritchard|$4,037,278|||
|Luke Kornet|$2,413,304|||
|Sam Hauser|$1,927,896|$2,092,344||
|Justin Champagnie|$1,927,896|||
|Vet Min|$1,836,090|||
|JD Davison||||
|Jordan Walsh||||
|||2024 GSW FRP||
|||2024 BOS FRP||
|Demetrius Jackson|$92,857|||
|Team Totals|$182,221,972|$195,744,826|$165,008,821|
|||||
|Salary Cap|$136,021,000|$149,600,000|$164,600,000|
|Luxury Tax Threshold|$165,294,000|$181,500,000|$199,699,000|
|Tax Apron 1|$172,294,000|$189,200,000|$208,171,000|
|Tax Apron 2|$182,794,000|||

Two way contracts don’t count against the cap, so the numbers on Davison and Walsh do not matter.

As you can see, it would be nearly impossible to avoid the second tax apron next season as the cap holds just for the FRPs should push us over and that doesn’t factor in resigning Pritchard. It will probably be a priority for the Celtics to sign a MLE player this offseason who will take a fully guaranteed two year deal or a team option on the second year, since they won’t have the tool to improve the roster next summer. I believe its also an option to give a slightly reduced amount in the MLE to create space for another veteran minimum deal.

Ideally, by 2025-26 the cap rises enough to be under the second tax apron again, even with an extension for Derrick White. I think Brad has done an outstanding job overall as the GM, but looking at this sheet really shows the lack of players in the “pipeline” so-to-speak. The Celtics definitely need to start developing some home grown talent again.

Hope you enjoyed this write up, sound off in the comments with your thoughts / TP MLE Targets. And for any cap experts out there please correct anything that I may have wrong- but everything should at least be directionally correct. Go Celtics.

by Washableaxe