High-Level Hoops Debate: Is “Defense Wins Championships” a True Statement in 2023?

High-Level Hoops Debate: Is “Defense Wins Championships” a True Statement in 2023?

The idea around the proficient offenses of today and the old adage that defense wins championships can you just be an elite team and go deep in the playoffs can you just be an elite offensive team and win a championship because offenses are so good now I mean I’ve got the data here

I’ve been working on this you know for few days the offensive rating across the league in terms of best worst average just keeps climbing and climbing and so I think to a degree you have to be able to score especially in the half court and you still have to be able to

Defend and so I think there’s a couple ways to look at this but what are your sort of General thoughts about today’s NBA the offensive efficiency off the charts and how that Translate to potentially winning it all so here’s the thing you clearly have to

Be a great offensive team to win it all now your defense isn’t going to carry the day and you’re just a you know an average to above average offensive team because you have to get to like certain numbers the way that the game is set up

The number of Threes taken just a sheer proficiency and raw data say you’re going to have to get to a certain number so defensively then what do you have to be I don’t necessarily think anymore that you have to be like a team that we look at and watch through data and

Through the ey test and say that’s an elite defensive team that’s a great defensive team they have a chance to win it because of that defense because I don’t think the defenses in general have the level of impact on these great offenses that they used to so can you be

Poorest defensively and win a championship no I don’t think you can be can you be adequate and be able to ramp it up like when you need to for a stretch in a game it’s important we have to be connected right here for the next four minutes to get

This win in a big spot in the playoff series so adequate and above and then be able to like dial it up when you need to you have to at least be that in addition to being a great offensive team I think that combination but the notion that you

Have to be like this team that suffocating and just lock down and shut you down defensively I just don’t think you need to have that to win a championship now I have a point I want to make on that but I want to go back to something you just said defenses don’t

Have the impact they used to on offenses why is that and I don’t think it’s one reason I think it’s a number of reasons okay why is that first reason I would say and this like this you know this conversation comes up and it always falls into the you know older School

Mentality new school mentality let’s be reasonable let’s be flat out honest here there are more highly skilled shot makers in the league than there’ve ever been by a mile look at the guys on these rosters up and down the roster that have added a handle that have added a slide

Step three a step back three a catch and shoot three there are just more shot makers on rosters and so the floor spread the spacing is different more guys are taking shots that they can make from distance and so as a result like you can’t funnel the ball to as many

Places defensively and end up in the hands of a non-sc scorer which really helps your your defense are right that used to be the case there were guys on the floor that serves a specific role on the other end to guard people and were a liability offensively you have far fewer

Of those in the NBA than you’ve ever had even those guys now you identify and say that’s a def that’s a defensive minded player he’s on this roster mainly because of what he can do defensively those dudes are making shots now at a higher level than ever so defensively

You can’t really game plan to try to force the ball in certain places you’re going to be okay because there’s too many guys on the court that have too much skill as shot makers I for me that would be the first reason I would list as to why defenses have less of an

Impact now okay I’m glad you went there and I think it’s important um because one of the things that I’ve been talking a lot about with different people and I brought it up on the broadcast the other day when Austin Reeves hit a step back three at the end of a shot clock

Um primary ball handlers and primary scorers now having the ability to make threes off the dribble yeah and not just in pick and roll yeah but in isolation at an efficient clip call it 35% or more that’s good offense in the half court right right that’s 1.05 points per

Possession in a half court I’m living with that I’m living with that so that to me is a big part of all of this whether it’s Luca Tatum Tyrese halberton who you know we’re going to get into him in a second but you know going into that Lakers game for the IST Championship

Number one in the league in effective field goal percentage on shooting jump shots off the dribble like that to me is the his vision’s great he’s been great finishing he’s been great on drives obviously teams are now forcing him left we’ll get into that in a second but that

To me is what unlocked has unlocked this level of stardom or super stardom whatever you want to call it I said Superstar but whatever that to me is important in all of this that that Trey young and jayen Brunson and all these guys can make threes off the bounce and

Not just in pick and roll that’s a great point because now there’s even less ability to stop it right because you’re not you know it used to be if you had guys that were really dangerous in that way catch and shoot threes whatever like you know you go face guard you go play

High side you try to prevent them from getting in the first place these guys are coming up the floor with it they already have it yeah right and they’re going to be a threat from pretty much anywhere on the floor either as an ISO step back or any certain any brush

Screen ball screen and they get any space the range that they have you know how deadly they are combined with we talk about Pace all the time here’s another reason I think defenses have less an impact early shots are more accepted by NBA teams as part of their strategy of

What they’re looking for so you’ve now taken you know it used to be like that first 81 second sometimes was more valued right exactly pounded it up there get guys organized now we’re going to go run our action that’s not the case anymore now the it’s not only Advanced

Quicker whoever gets it with any daylight whatsoever has the freedom to go ahead and take that shot so it just puts more pressure on you defensively in the first place to be super connected running back cross matches are a problem miscommunications are a problem because

The ball is going to be Advanced to a guy that can make a shot and has the license to take it and the freedom and the confidence of his coaching staff and his teammates to go ahead and let that thing go um so I think that also makes

It more difficult for defenses to really have that impact now look you you still have teams that you watch sometimes and go man they are really getting after it right now Minnesota’s the top of the list for me right now and watch in them Boston at times can really look that way

And some of the teams that we’re talking Denver can look that way sometimes but in general I’m not watching games and going man how are they going to operate against this defense and this the defense suffocating yeah you don’t feel that as much because even even the top

Defensive teams JJ like you’re still going to see like a 40o quarter against them right right there there’s some shot variany to the amount of three-pointers taken right yeah for sure you’re going to you’re going to have those sort of anomaly games I like to call them

Um but you bring up Minnesota by the way one thing with them outside of Conley they’re starting five positional size and when they bring Alexander Walker Off the Bench positional size so they have positional size at nearly every position depending on the lineup and I’m going to

Get into some lineup stuff in a second but I want to stay on this for second because you brought up something and I think this is important too having the nons scorer the non-skilled player on the court which used to exist even when I played absolutely and I remember there

Would be games where if you’re guard I’m not going to name the players but I I can think of two off the top of my head talking if you’re guarding this guy right you are essentially in help on every pick and roll don’t it doesn’t matter where he is you’re taking the

Roller if the ball goes into the post or so and so is is soed you’re you’re doubling like you’re just going you’re doubling and there’s no rotation to the noncore you get back to him we did that in a playoff series we did that in a playoff series for seven games

Right right oh yeah so like that those play they’re few and far between they’re few and far between oh yeah that’s right and on that point look I I think this is one of the reasons that Golden State struggled against the Lakers and why they’re starting five is struggling this

Year to a degree I think you can’t play and Draymond has shot well this year but let’s let’s call him for what he has been for most of his he’s a non-shooter right not a high volume guy he’s not going to shoot a high percentage he shot

It well this year so you’re playing two non-shooters in that lineup well if Wiggins can’t make a three now you’re playing three non Shooters and Clay’s struggling well he’s picked it up last three games yes yes so but that you ha you can’t have lineups out there that

Are playing that way so that’s one thing the other part about this is analytics and I remember the first time I heard any of this analytic stuff was the very first meeting we had with Stan Van Gundy this was 0708 his first year there first meeting before training camp he comes in

And he breaks down this is what a free throw is worth this is what a layup is worth and this is what a three is worth and specifically he’s like this is what a corner three is worth the drive in analytics is a tremendous factor in all

Of this that hey guess what we’re not going to have Tony Allen spotting up at 15 feet and shooting three of those a game cuz that’s not an efficient shot or whoever was in the two guard spot for Oklahoma City for all those years they’d put somebody in that spot just like that

Yeah didn’t have to worry about so it’s like I I think the amount you brought up the brother SK I think the amount of two-way players that can spot they don’t have to necess be on ball players but they can spot and make a decent clip

From three uh that the the the the proficiency and the the intelligence now not only of spacing but also cutting around spacing I think teams do a great job right now of cutting of recognizing when there’s two on the ball and then here’s here’s our cut game basically

Teams are good at that so I think analytics have driven this I I was looking this the up up the other day so free throw rates are down across the board League wide uh players have never shot less free throws per game than at any other time in the modern NBA going

Back correlation to the increase in three-point shooting 100% here’s the crazy part drives are up by about 50% now we only have tracking data since 2013 right for for that sort of thing second Spectrum Synergy all that stuff we only have Drive data since 2013 but

In the last 10 years drives are up 50% yet we’re shooting less free throws now some of that I think is bigs are smarter at the rim with verticality some of that is you drive to then kick for a three some of that is all the intent of the

Drive now is more to kick than anything but we are getting shots at the rim and we’re getting threes we’re taking less mid-range so I think the analytics play a factor in this the rules the rules play a factor sure right the rul I didn’t go there first no

The rules play you thought I was going to go there first didn’t no no no no I I would say this for anyone who wants and I’ve told you this and we can argue about this all day for anybody who wants go watch a just a go watch a full film

Go watch a full game from the 80s go watch a full game from the 90s watch a game today the the play itself I don’t know that there’s this big disparity between physicality were there more hard fouls 100% were there teams certain teams like I I I went and

Watch two of the the six games from the 93 Bulls Nicks series he that Knicks team was physical like they were physical I you can watch it it’s physical I also watched that Phoenix Suns Series yeah as a kid and I’ve rewatched every game in that series that

Phoenix Suns team was not physical with the bulls they got wherever they want Jordan at The Rim Tom Chambers in the restricted area no verticality lay in like so my point is today’s rules do favor the the the the offensive player sure 100% yet teams are smarter about not

Fouling so we’re not getting that efficiency piece in it I I think your first point is the real reason I really do I I think analytics play a role I think spacing I think having no non-shooters on the court player role but as a as a sort of

Add-on to no non-shooters guys are more skilled they’re just across theard on average more skilled so all that being said it gets back to the original question when you are now sitting Courtside calling games when you’re just watching games at home do you find it because I do less frequently are you

Watching games where you’re like man they’re really getting after it right now like they’re really locking into these guys and affecting them I just feel like I see it less I feel with certain teams I see it more okay with certain teams I see it less like

Grizzlies at full strength last year I saw it I’ve done a number of Nicks games when Mitchell Robinson’s a line in the lineup I see it okay I see it there there’s there’s a physicality there’s they’re grabbing off the ball there there’s all that stuff it happens to my original

Question um there’s two things I wanted to bring up let’s look at the last five years okay uh Denver had the number five offense in the regular season the number 50 defense but they were a top 10 defense from December 1st through March 1st they were the number four most uh

Efficient defense in the playoffs last year so they proved that they could at least be adequate if not better than adequate Golden State when they won in 22 number 16 offense in the regular season but the number two defense bucks number five number nine Lakers number 11 offense but the number three defense

Raptors and 19 top five in both number five in both if you go back to 2000 every single Champion has either been a top five team in either defense or offense or twice a top 10 team in both and that was Dallas in 11 number nine number eight and ‘ 06 Miami number

Seven number 10 so why do we bring these ratings up because they do matter when we’re talking about contenders they do matter yeah but I look at one the the last point I want to make on this I I I think about this do you have a lineup

That can get stops yeah you brought up the four-minute thing like where you got to lock in and get a kind of what I was referencing can you go you have a lineup and so you know I looked at this um Milwaukee uh with their starters in

Beasley 109 defensive rating not bad for today 16.3 net rating they’re killing it Philly’s lineup with Batum Melton maxi Parris and embiid 34 net rating plus 34 they had they have a 101 defensive lineup spectacular the king starters 13.3 net rating 105.8 defense Boston who we’re

Going to get into in a little bit 19.6 six net rating with their starting lineup 100.7 defensive rating spectacular um bulls have a great lineup with uh Kobe white Patrick Williams and doomo and d rozan and Williams uh Phoenix is lineup also has a great lineup with Durant Gordon nurkic Booker

Allen although they’ve only played seven games together so it’s a little bit different and then the the Clippers starting lineup that’s the other one that really stood out to me 16.5 net rating 105.9 defensive rating they’re 12 and three since they went to that starting lineup with Westbrook off and

Teren Mann in so like that stuff to me matters these were all the teams that had aund a fiveman lineup with 100 or more more minutes and a and a plus 10 or better net rating the one I didn’t include in this is Indie because it’s a

Ponzi scheme uh they have a lineup with a 17.7 net rating but their defensive rating on that is 11 16.7 so I don’t believe in that in the playoffs yeah yeah I know I think and I think all that data I think backs up what we’re saying

Initially which is you better have a lineup that can compete and affect for stretches and certainly important stretches tight games right you you got you have to be able to guard overall though we view I think fewer teams now as having a defensive identity like that’s what’s that’s what differentiates

Them because we’re so enamored with what these teams are doing offensively and these numbers that are being put up like every single night a slate of games last night just pulled up you can see like you know eight teams get to 130 it’s like it happens all the time now so that

And I felt like before like this this era of What offense looks like in the NBA I felt like it was more often you could look at a team and say like that’s their identity going into a game and for the next 48 minutes you’re going to expect to see certain things defensively

And usually at the sacrifice of some things offensively because of the Personnel you had on the court were specializing in defense that’s not the case anymore man these guys now that are some of your top Defenders they’re also get capable of getting you 15 to 20 at

Least right and you can’t leave them to that extent so I just feel like the the the tone and tenor that these teams take and the way we break them down when we’re watching them fewer teams have that but yet the teams that’ll be left

Standing at the end will be able to be able to put teams on the floor that can really get after you defensively for stretches when you have to have it uh I I left out one fiveman lineup that has a positive uh of or more and that’s Denver’s starting lineup and shockingly

They have a defensive rating of 11.3 which isn’t great but again you know they’re scoring nearly 125 points per 100 possessions I’m not sure it matters I’m not sure it matters with that lineup

This week we are doing a big 30 game check-in with our guy Tim Legler. We talk a lot of high level hoops including Joel Embiid and The Philadelphia 76ers, Kawhi Leonard and The Clippers, The Boston Celtics and much more. In this teaser clip we have a big discussion around NBA defense and why offenses are just too good these days.

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