Shooting down Timberwolves misconceptions + how the Wolves have fared in tough schedule stretch

Shooting down Timberwolves misconceptions + how the Wolves have fared in tough schedule stretch

Hello and welcome into another episode of lock down wolves today on the show some misconceptions about the Timberwolves still in the midst of this ridiculously difficult schedule stretch I’ll talk about why the sky is not falling there’s you know a few a few concerns that I don’t think are valid

Concerns about this team rotation related shooting related I want to talk about some of those you know that that noise plus just how tough this schedule has been over the last month I also want to preview the Wolves Magic game here Tuesday night the first time we’ve SE in

Orlando this year it’s all coming welcome in you are locked on wolves you are locked on Timberwolves your daily Minnesota Timberwolves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every Day hello and welcome to the lockdown wolves podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day my name is Ben Beacon I’m the host of locked on wolves today’s episode is brought to you by fanuel make every moment more right now new customers get

$150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet it’s 150 bucks if your team wins visit fanduel.com lockon to get started happy Tuesday everybody happy TI Wolves game day the wolves are in Orlando to take on the magic here Tuesday night we’ll preview that game here in a little bit lots to

Get to first though I want to uh I guess set up and knock down some Straw Men if you will not complete Straw Men I’m going to dive into some of the the the Twitter or the X comments it’s dangerous territory I’m going to do it I want to

Dispel some what I’ve seen as some uh negative Notions about this wolves team that obviously every team has its warts right but uh it’s not time to panic about this wolves team um want to talk about a couple interesting stats also the schedule here recently just how nuts

It’s been for the last month so we’ll do all that here today before we get to the magic preview first though big thank you for making lockdown wolves your first list in every day of course this show is free and available everywhere including YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio

Platforms you can also watch the show in the lockdown Sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV and you can follow on X at lockon wolves and also at B Beacon that’s with 2bs 2 e cken all right um I alluded to this a bit on Monday’s show which was the

Postgame pod following the Sunday night loss to Dallas and I I don’t do this very often I I don’t you know social media comments Twitter like it’s there’s a lot of noise out there right um but as happens when a team goes five and five in their last 10 after being the best

Team in the league for the vast majority of the Season there I think has been some um I don’t know over-the-top hand ringing over some aspects of this team and so I want to pick out a couple things I saw and kind of dispel some some Notions that I I think are

Incorrect about this wolves team um I want to start by saying like starting more broadly um related to this whole like oh they’re five and five in their last 10 they’ve lost three out of four like what are we gonna do here’s the thing the timberl right now have a winning percentage of

714 714 okay last season there wasn’t a single team in the league that finished the season with that good of a winning percentage the best was Milwaukee’s 58 wins which was a 707 win percentage the best winning percentage in the Western Conference last year was 646 from the

Onec Denver Nuggets who of course went on to win the title the wolves are winning at a 714 clip so that’s like a 59 win Pace they’re still basically winning at a 60 for the course of the Season obviously at a 60 win Pace in other words another

Way to look at this would be they’ve got a little bit of margin for error and if you look at the body of work for a season if this team ends up losing again they’re on Pace to only lose 23 games 22 23 games if they lose say that that’s the

Case and they we’ll say they lose 25 games they we’ll call it uh 59 and 25 and uh you know U which is basically the pace they’re on right well they had to lose 25 games somewhere and of course they’re going to be bunched together a

Little bit they still they lost two in a row once this season which is nuts um go back and look at any of these teams like look at Denver last year and I guarantee you they had a couple of losing streaks that’s how this thing works uh here we

Go they lost three in a row in December last year to at Atlanta New Orleans and Dallas they had uh a four game losing streak last March remember when the sky seemed to be falling for the Nuggets last March they lost five out of six

They lost to the Spurs they lost to the Nets who I guess were a playoff team um they lost to the Bulls last year they scored just 96 points against the Bulls and and you know everything and then that was in early March late March last

Year Denver lost five out of six again they lost to the rockets at the Rockets last year they lost at the Jazz the second to last regular season game my point is this and obviously you could do this with any one seed in any season except for the Warriors and the Bulls

Teams that were historically amazing teams lose games that’s how this works you’re going to lose 25 games and that’s a really good season it would have been the best season in the League last year it doesn’t mean that the sky is falling go back two years and there was

I believe one team yeah the Phoenix Suns won 64 games two years ago nobody else had a winning percentage above 683 the wolves are winning at a 714 clip so far this season go back three seasons only one team that was a shorten season only one team had a winning percentage above

That it was the Utah Jazz who went 52 and 20 Rudy goar’s Utah Jazz uh Rudy goar’s Utah Jazz Mike Conley’s Utah Jazz in a 72 Game season 152 games one at a 722 clip again the wolves are winning at a S14 clip go back four years only one

Team again a shorten season that was the first Co short in season the Lakers woned a 732 clip and they won the title that year go back five years only one team so if you go back the last five years last year not a single team finished with a winning percentage that

Good go back five years only one team in every other season the last five years has finished with a winning percentage better than what the wolves are at right now a third of the way through the season and I don’t say I don’t say all of that to suggest the Wolves will

Finish with the League’s best record although it’s certainly possible I say that to provide some context to the sky is falling Narrative of hey oh no the wolves are five and five in their last 10 well guess what they played some really really good

Teams and I want to I guess we can start talking about that now I also want to get into a couple of of of those additional social comments but let’s do the schedule thing first um the Timberwolves have played six when when it’s all said and done they play Orlando

Tuesday night they play at Boston Wednesday night which is an impossible back toback take the whole thing going back to December 11th against the New Orleans Pelicans so it’ll be you know a month will be this this um what’s today the 9th so it’ll be Thursday will be the

Will be one month so in one month in the SP of exactly a month they have played 16 consecutive games against teams that currently are in the top uh that are playoff teams in the top 10 and I think all of them but maybe one or two are in

The top eight in their conference so 16 consecutive teams that are above 500 okay 11 of the 16 have been on the road and the T wolves have only had one two game home stay in the last month they have never played more than two consecutive games at home in the last

Month and only one time did they play two straight home games 11 of 16 on the road through 14 through 14 they’re eight- six now I think I think the it’s very likely they win in I should say very likely I think it’s likely they beat Orlando and likely they lose to Boston

So if they finish this stretch nine and seven that’s not bad that’s not bad at all there’s been two back-to-backs if you include this Orlando Boston one and I’m assuming they’ll split that one so they’ll have two back-to-backs 11 of 16 on the road only a single two

Game home stand otherwise they’re all oneoff home games with road trips in between and they’re eight and six through 14 games Okay I want to take this a step further I want to look at some numbers from cleaning the glass in terms of how the Wolves beyond the

Record of eight and six how the Wolves actually performed if we take that specific date the Pelicans game on December 11th and we play it forward here over the last 14 games yes they’re eight and six but how is the offense faed how is the def defense fared and

Then I want to get into a couple of comments that I saw related to uh specifically Jaden McDaniels the team you know uh the rotation and the guys in the rotation making open shots Etc some of those numbers how well have the Wolves actually shot wide open jumpers

This year might surprise you because the answer is not too poorly right they’ve been pretty good there want to talk about Jade McDaniels a little bit people getting on his case after a one for 10 shoy night uh against Dallas Sunday i’ rightfully so but again that’s one game

It’s not the season right one game to not a season make um so I want to get to all that here next and then we’ll do the the magic preview here to close the show today today’s episode of lockdown wolves is brought To Us by our friends over at

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The first ever National sports2 47 streaming Channel all right um so I I mentioned the schedule of course uh eight and six in the last 14 if you if you take this a step further and you look at the cleaning the glass numbers cleaning theeg glass.com you can put in uh you

Know whatever arbitrary start and end point you want and they of course they have a default kind of last two weeks like how’s the team doing the last two weeks but you can also put in actual start date so I put in December 11th which was when the Wolves took on the

Pelicans they’re eight and4 as I mentioned over that stretch excuse me eight and six in 14 games over that stretch but it also has their offensive and defensive rating over that stretch and again the cleaning the glass numbers remove garbage time and they also take out the end of

Quarter possessions that are uh you know rebound and throw up a heave from three quarters court so they’re a little bit more accurate and since December 11th since that start of this just hellacious stretch that the wolves have have been on schedule wise Minnesota still has the League’s third

Defense third rated defense over the last 30 days well 28 days since December 11th number three in defense despite exclusively playing above 500 teams exclusively playing playoff teams they’re still the third rated defense during the last month they’ve held two teams under 100 one of them just being

Houston last Friday night the other being Sacramento a it was a full strength Sacramento team a couple days before Christmas on December 23rd they held them to 98 points they also held Dallas to 101 now that was a uh that was that was the Dallas game that that Luca

Played in but there was no Kyrie back in Dallas on December 14th the second game of the stretch so they held three teams under 101 points during this stretch and of course also gave up that crazy you know the the the beat down in Philadelphia the beat down in Oklahoma

City and yet over this stretch December 11th until right now in 14 games Minnesota has the third rated defense and overall for the season of course they’re still the number one rated Defense League wide sitting here right now which is impressive considering you know the this this uh quote unquote Swoon that they’ve

Been on here recently the offense is not good it’s been 20th over that stretch but for the season depending on where you look it’s it’s right around you know 20 to 22nd anyway so the offense hasn’t necessarily been worse it’s just been the same of course that’s concerning that it hasn’t gotten

Better but it’s not bottom five it’s not worse than it was at the start of the season so again it doesn’t fit the sky falling narrative the team is 12th in point differential over that period of time they are um 17th in spread differential what that means is the

Average Point differential relative to the spread uh which again goes to show how difficult the schedule has been um so across the board the wolves have been basically what you might have expected over the last couple of weeks and again any team virtually any team in the league no I do

Think any team if you told them you’re playing 14 games against only playoff teams you know how do you want to come out of this thing realistically most coaches would say you know if we win more than we lose that’s a pretty good stretch that’s how this whole thing

Works again going back to my first point on the show like you’re always going to play X number of games against the League’s worst teams because everybody plays everybody right which means you’re always going to play X number of games against the League’s best teams you’re

Going to lose a couple the bad teams you’re hopefully going to beat some of you know more and remember last year the Wolves were weirdly good against the League’s best teams and weirdly bad against the League’s worst teams and this year they’ve been as expected they’ve been good against the good teams

Above 500 against the good teams and they’ve crushed the bad teams and that equals the best record in the Western Conference there’s nothing to be like ringing our hands about over you know the the body of work over the past month individual things here and there right like obviously there’s been some

Games that were real stinkers the Knicks game had some disappointing moments the Pelicans loss had some disappointing moments uh the Thunder game was just overall disappointing the Philly game was a weird one the New Orleans game was a weird one like going back there’s only like I would say the Knicks and Pelicans

Games were the most frustrating and concerning well and I guess the Thunder game but again the Thunder are really good tough road game day after Christmas whatever like those are the three right the Thunder the Knicks the Pelicans give me the other 11 all right they lost at

Philly embiid went off they lost at New Orleans Zion went off they lost at Dallas Luca and Kyrie went off for Dallas ant was the only superstar that came to the party from Minnesota we talked about that on the show yesterday three stinkers out of 14 against the best competition that you’re

Going to find is not the end of the world okay a couple of quick social comments I want to expand on um John krinski posted a uh I think he he retweeted actually or I don’t know how do you how do you say quote Tweet now he

Reposted and quote quote posted I don’t know quote reposted uh the voice of the Tim rules on the radio alen Horton of course uh you know uh he could be heard on the xsm app xsm app SiriusXM you can check out him and he actually used to

Host the show back several years ago um alen did not John anyway John commented in about the wolf streak of winning games when leading in the fourth quarter and there were a couple of I’ll call them interesting comments one of them actually is is basically just address this from

Somebody who has a very generic username and handle on Twitter uh they said five and five in the last 10 no signs of much if any Improvement at all we’re not playing like a top 10 in the league right now brutal after having such a great start to the season but it’s

Starting to feel like a fluke I feel like I’ve already explained why that’s not correct um and then there’s a comment from someone that says McDaniels shouldn’t be starting he brings nothing to the offense and his defense is not as good as people think I’d love to see him

Traded for another guard or small forward that can shoot related related there was another comment I lost it now about somebody talking about the Wolves needed a knock down open shots to be clear that was an issue in Dallas and I addressed that on Monday’s show a big part of the Wolves

Losing that game was simply just Jaden missed that open three-pointer in the corner cat Miss call it one and a half open threes you know they’re both lightly contested but open enough for cat to make them off those uh play calls from Finch the Wolves missed some open

Shots on the stretch yes for the season though that hasn’t necessarily been an issue so I’ll address that first of course on nba.com you can search uh teams and how they shoot against you know different types of coverages in terms of closest Defender so against wide in wide openen three-point attempts

Which is Defenders six or more feet away the closest Defender being six or or more feet away the wolves are actually um seventh or actually tied for sixth in the NBA in terms of three-point percentage when they’re wide open 40.5% in terms of attempts they’re pretty middle of the pack regarding how

Often they get those um they get wide open threes well actually three-point wide open three-point field goal frequency they’re actually slightly in they’re barely in the top 10 but again they’re shooting over 40% 40 and a half% tied for uh fifth in the league or tied for six in the league in terms

Of three-point percentage when they’re wide open so for the season that hasn’t been an issue and remember we’re talking about a wolves team that uh you know volume wise doesn’t shoot enough threes right now going into the game against Orlando they’re 19th in terms of three-point attempt rate but they’re

Still fifth in percentage so they’re making their threes by and large they just didn’t in this particular game and turns out when the superstars on the other side make contested shots you’re not likely to win if you miss the open ones in the of an 82 Game season that

Happens the other one was Jaden McDaniels obviously he went one for1 against Dallas and I think it was 0 of five outside the arc he’s down to 35% on threes for the season uh 35.1% now coming into the game he’s 39% turns out you’re still only 30 some

Games into the year you go for five that’s going to tank your percentage by a few a few points but last year was 39.8% he was a 40% three-point shooter last year was over 40% catch and shoot for his career coming into the season he was 36% and and two years ago

He had a subpar year but was over 36% which back in McDaniels rookie year that was about League average so he’s been League average or better uh you know two of his first three years in the League last year was 40% over 40% catch and shoot and this year was 38% until he

Went over for five the other day so I you know suggesting that jadeen McDaniels is overrated defensively and a poor shooter is not correct um and again I say this as an example of this this is what happens when you have a good team that has a small speed bump there’s no

Catastrophic issues here other than um the fact that they’re still in they’re still experiencing this slight bump in the road right as we’ve talked about before though you know they’re they’re not likely to win both games at Orlando at Boston that’s just how again how the NBA

Works but then you get Portland couple games after that you get Detroit unfortunately John rant is out for the season now at the Tor lab room that that was announced on Monday and obviously I’d rather job be on the court and it would have been more fun to face John

Brand he’s not playing when the Wolves take on Memphis on a backto back National TV the first TNT game next week so after these two games three of the next four are Portland Detroit and Memphis before you get Oklahoma City but then you get Charlotte Washington Brooklyn San Antonio four straight games

They’ll be favored in this wolves team is going to get right and yes it will have to do with the schedule but there’s not a whole lot wrong with eight and six against 14 playoff teams either and I guess that’s my point here with this whole mini rant

That I’ve been on um I want to talk about the magic matchup the wolves have not faced Orlando yet this year so that’s what we’ll do next here to close out the show today’s episode of lock out wolves is brought to Aspire friends over at FanDuel the NFL regular season is

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Bet a layup FanDuel official partner of the NFL all right let’s close this thing out with the magic matchup for the Wolves the wolves have not faced Orlando yet this season and uh Orlando’s been I think surprising to me I didn’t think they would be a top you know currently

They’re actually tied for fourth in the East with identical records to Miami and Indiana actually you know what they’re tied with four other teams for fourth place in the East Miami Orlando Indiana Cleveland and the Knicks all have the exact same 21 and 15 record and of all those um they’re all actually

Pretty similar Point differentials as well the Knicks have the best one followed by the Pacers and then the magic um so anyway I wouldn’t have expected the magic to be in the top six in the east no matter how you slice it and I suppose if they lose and some of

These other teams win they’ll be all the way down to ninth but anyway they’ve been good they’ve dealt with a lot of injuries here lately they’ve got guys that are out um uh fron Vagner is g to miss the game against the Wolves which is huge he’s one of their best couple of

Players uh you know probably top two players I would say um they did beat the Hawks in overtime the other day they beat the Nuggets a couple games ago they lost to the kings in double overtime but if you look at their schedule they haven’t lost to very many bad teams at

All this year like look at their 15 losses Sacramento Golden State Phoenix obviously neither Golden State or Phoenix is as good as as people expected but still uh they lost to Philadelphia recently they they had a four- game losing streak but it was Boston Boston Miami Milwaukee Cleveland and you know

Brooklyn I guess 20 plus Point loss to Brooklyn going back six weeks now wasn’t great uh but you got to go all the way back to early November late December you know when they lost to like Atlanta but like it looks like 11 of their 15 losses were against above 500 teams against

Playoff teams and they had a crazy winning streak in there that was nine games and most of that was against Bad teams although they beat Denver and Boston in there too um so they’ve already beaten Denver by the way they’ve swept the season series with Denver I

Don’t love the matchup for the Wolves against the magic uh for a couple coup of reasons one obviously they play good teams tough um across the board they they pretty much do um and I mean there’s a couple other things they do well that the Wolves don’t they’re a good rebounding team

They’re 13th right now in offensive rebound rate and the Wolves of course even though the defensive rebound rate is okay um this is another example you take cleaning the glasses number and it doesn’t look as good because cleaning the glass takes out garbage time the Wolves still struggle with good

Offensive rebounding teams also Orlando is second in defensive rebound rate the Wolves don’t usually rely a ton on Second Chance points um but they they uh they needed to against Dallas they tried to they got a ton of offensive rebounds against a diminutive Dallas lineup that

Was a bit short-handed uh but for the season the wolves are 18th in offensive rebound right Orlando is second in defensive rebound right they’re just a good rebounding team on both sides of the floor and that’s just not an ideal match up for Minnesota the biggest issue though is Orlando was fantastic at

Getting to the free throw line so far this season they are uh third in the league no I’m sorry they’re first in the league in free throw rate almost they attempt almost almost a uh they nearly attempt a free throw attempt for every three field goal attempts that they make that they shoot

Not make okay so their free throw rate is point is basically 31 so if it were 33 another way of saying that would be for every three shots that they attemp from the field they shoot one free throw which is nuts they’re number one in the league in free throw rate now Vagner

Being out certainly helps in that regard but Paulo banero is fantastic at getting to the line and uh the wolves are gonna have to deal with him um he’s obviously their most dynamic player uh especially with Vagner out you’re mostly worried about him they’ve got some other

Rotation guys that aren’t going to play Jonathan Isaac I I don’t believe is gonna play in this game he’s been out for a little while Joe Les has been out Gary Harris has been out these guys are all rotation mostly non-starters uh V being out is a big deal I would argue

He’s probably their best allr player uh but B Caro of course is very Dynamic and a unique player to have to deal with um averaging 237 and five this year and shooting the ball better from Deep so um he worries me a little bit he shoots

Seven and a half free throw attempts per game and the wolves have been very foul happy here recently they actually did okay against Dallas especially given that it was Luca I think Luca only attempted six or seven free throws Kyrie only attempted a couple uh but the Wolves need to do their best

To not follow in this game the matchup is just a bit dicey um also Minneapolis or Minnesota native Jaylen sugs has been playing much better here he’s shooting 40% from outside the arc has improved greatly as a shooter he’s always been a good Defender um he’s a big part of what

They’re doing too he’s a u he’s a starter for them so he likely will have the the ants assignment um and again no Vagner so like this is a certainly a winnable game for Minnesota and I would think it’s more likely they win in Orlando than

They you know than that they win in Boston the next night um but because they play Boston the next night I think the wolves and right now the Wolves don’t have anyone on their injury report they should sell out to try and get this win because winning in Boston is going

To be tough regardless especially you know no um I didn’t even mention when called Wendell Carter Jr is not GNA play either so no Vagner no Isaac Noles no Harris no Wendell Carter Jr the wolves are I’m going to throw this graphic up here on uh on YouTube the wolves are

Minus five is a spread for this game five-point favorites a low over under of 218 the magic actually have a similar overall team profile to the wolves in that they’re the fourth team in defense fourth in defensive rating they’re 22nd in offensive rating so a top five I mean

Stop me if you’ve heard this before a top five defense a bottom 10 offense that’s exactly what the wolves are right now too um so in that regard it’s similar to Minnesota but I worry about this matchup as a whole if the Wolves can do okay on the glass you know you

Know hold the r they don’t have to dominate the glass hold the r don’t give up too many Second Chance opportunities and don’t put Beno on the line you know s eight nine 10 12 times and they should be okay again five-point favorites you got to win before you go

On the road to Boston uh we’ll have the live postcast over at lock dud Sports Minnesota after the game on YouTube and then that audio will be posted here to this feed lock dud wolves Wednesday we’ll have the Minnesota basketball party myself uh Jack Borman the editor

And chief ofis hoopus we’ll have uh Reggie son the lead Sports Anchor at k 11 and we’ll have Ron Johnson for the Ron Johnson show we’ll all be on with Sam extrom on Wednesday and then of course my show Wednesday as well which will be the postgame pod that will

Actually post first before the party uh episode uh you know recapping the the Tuesday night wolves Magic game we’ll get you ready for wolves Celtics Wednesday night too um and hopefully the Wolves can finish this thing with at least a split maybe they’ll steal a couple on the road as they exit this

Gauntlet and get into a bit of a softer part of the schedule get back home to Face Portland on Friday Friday night all right that’s all we have for you today here on the show a big thank you for making lockd wolves your first listen every day of course this show is

Free and available everywhere including YouTube as well as all of your favorite audio platforms wherever you like to listen to podcast you can find lock on wolves you can also watch on the lockon sports Minnesota app on both Roku and Amazon Fire TV you can also follow an X lockon

Wolves and also at B Beacon with two B’s Two e cken of course the lock on wolves podcast is part of the locked on podcast Network remember the lockd on network is your local experts on all the biggest stories once again I’m Ben Beacon this is the lock on wolves podcast and we’ll

Catch you next time

The Minnesota Timberwolves may not be lighting the world on fire right now, but they’re still winning at a .714 clip this season — better than any regular-season record at the end of last NBA season. Ben Beecken (@bbeecken) talks through a few Wolves misconceptions, as well as an evaluation of how the Wolves have done so far during a grueling stretch in the schedule that has seen them play against 14 consecutive playoff teams. Plus, a preview of the Wolves matchup against the Orlando Magic.

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