Brice Sensabaugh shines Can Jazz defend the three point shot better? Analytics shift in NBA

Brice Sensabaugh shines Can Jazz defend the three point shot better? Analytics shift in NBA

The Utah Jazz have got to start defending the three-point line better or do they it’s next on an analytical shift in the NBA on locked on Jazz you are locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day

How are you I’m David lock radio voice the Utah Jazz jazznba Insider on today’s edition of locked on Jazz the Utah Jazz are allowing opponents to shoot 40% from the three-point line it’s got to stop right maybe or maybe there’s a shift in the NBA and you’re not gonna let someone shoot

40% but you’re going to let him shoot threes what have we crossed the line on amount of three-point shots team are going to take going to do an analytical deep dive some of the news that came out of Sloan update some things that’s been written recently by JN Hollinger amongst

Others David Thorp Henry Abbott on where the league is right now and maybe the Jazz who are allowing 40% from three and last night a Chicago Bulls team went bananas from three almost all night long and beat the Jazz as they finished 177 of 39 for 44%

Maybe the Jazz strategy isn’t that bad ball going in not that good but the strategy not so bad we’ll talk about it plus we’ll look at last night’s game uh Bryce sensah shined last night and we’ll uh get a chance to look at him uh uh kind of an overall analytical look today

At the NBA where some shifts are going uh in the league uh and update on draft position because that’s kind of exciting today that’s all coming up I’m David lock radio voice to the Utah Jazz jazznba Insider and this is locked on Jazz it’s your daily podcast on Utah

Jazz giving you Insight expertise geeky numbers lots of them today and hopefully making it way better to be a jazz fan each and every day thanks so much for tuning in to locked on Jazz and thank you very much for making locked on Jazz your first listen of the day we are free

And available on all podcasting apps and we’re also available on YouTube thumbs up please if you like Bryce 15 points and 12 rebounds last night in his first NBA start and we’ll look at that uh as we continue into the every dayers you’re the best those people

Stopped by for stickers yesterday and I was out I’m so sorry I’ve got to start grabbing more of them getting used to doing it um so I’ll solve that we only have a few more games left so I will certainly solve that all right um there’s a lot to this let me

Kind of all melds together this is going to be a little bit of a work in progress this show um this is probably a show that needs like three or four days of development and like I’m doing it in a few hours so um I started working on it last night

And reading and then trying to put it back together this morning so let’s start with last night’s game uh the Jazz allow another massive three-point shooting night Kobe KN goes Kobe white goes seven of 11 the Jazz allow 44% from three the Jazz allow the second highest three-point shooting

Percentage of any team in the NBA this year they’re 18 allowing threes they’re ninth best at denying the rim they have the ninth best effective field goal percentage defense location based which I think super important unfortunately they’re 15th in shooting defense overall and they’re allowing opponents to shoot 40% from three only

Sacramento allows worse so last night Houston hits excuse me last night Chicago hits a bunch of Threes And we lose I mean that’s a little bit of literally what last night’s game is is kind of an a wacky weird finish and a bunch of things like that it really kind

Of comes down to the fact that they hit two more threes while taking eight F and we had a bad shooting night Colin had a great shooting night he was 5 11 and the rest of the team was 10 of 36 and frankly we talked about this

Earlier this week as a positive but the way the roster is constructed and of course without uh Lowry marinin were pretty dependent on a good Jordan Clarkson night and those happened some of the time and when they do we win like we did the other night against Washington but last night Jordan goes

Four of 15 or five of 17 by the time it was over and when we talked about this the other day when Jordan shoots below 33% which he’s now done in 19 games this year we’re four and 15 um or actually five and 14 and when Jordan shoots below

40% which has now happened in 25 games this year we are six and 19 so there’s just Jordan’s goes like this we go as Jordan goes um the way the roster is constructed right now and without Lowry Markin in so um that’s kind of the

Reality and on those games by the way in which You’ve Won usually the case is that Jordan does something else along the way gets the you know one of them he goes five and 14 to the free throw line nine times um in other ones he hits

Three he goes two four 13 but he hits three threes and you know then there’s the outlier where he hit six of seven free throws against Milwaukee but that’s the reality so last night Jordan’s not on hard for us to win uh the good news last

Night was Bryce sensal now as many of you know when we did all of our draft prep and I ran the first thing I do with draft prep we’ll do the same thing this year when the Jazz may end up having three basic first round picks is the

First thing I do is I R run numbers I go through uh a ton of players and I just run their numbers before anything else and Bryce sensah popped to us early in that process last year and so I am the numbers were a fan of Bryce

Sensah uh and then when I went and looked at Bryce zensah and watched him play I became a fan he he has an absolute offensive bag that is an NBA offensive player and the question is going to be whether he can defend well enough and move well enough and then I

Think the other question is whether he can stay healthy um those see those seem to be the issues with the knee everything else so last night BR sensal actually did something I didn’t know he could do which is go grab double digit rebounds um I don’t want to have him

Always be compared to Oi but one of the things that was talked about a lot in regards to Oi was what you know why didn’t he rebound better um and so um that 12 rebounds last night by Sensa as a guard’s pretty awesome as will hardy said you know we want him thinking

About things that aren’t scoring the reason we like Sensa of the draft just to remind people that weren’t if you weren’t a part of the shows so his transition numbers were just average so he came out as just the first thing we look as athletism he came out as an

Average athlete and then on the pick and roll he wasn’t super impressive but his spot up shooting was in the 74th percentile his catch and shoot percentile was in the 95th percentile his catch and shoot game was the best of any player in the draft the only one

That also was close was Marcus Sasser who’s had a very good surprisingly good year in Detroit his overall catch and shoot effective field goal percentage was 68% on 120 of must his unguarded catch and shoot which frankly if you’re going to be a fifth score was in the 87th

Percentile and the only guys better were Keon was also in the 87th percentile and then the only guys better were Brandon Miller’s in the 89th cam Whitmore was in the 85th keonte was in the 87th Nick Smith was in the 89th um DQ Whitehead is in the 93rd who

Hasn’t played much and then Marcus Sasser shows up again who we did really like numbers wise and he’s shown to be much better than anyone projected and then finally dribble off the jumper Bryce ensa was in the 82nd percentile Grady dick was better with his kind of

Oneoff move to the side but other than that Bryce Seno was the the best off the bounce three shooter in the draft so sensah according to my numbers was the number one catch and shoot guy and the number one off the bound shooter in League like this kid could really score

It and I think we saw that last night on a few plays and what I think I’ve seen that’s most impressive to me about sensah and even in his postgame interview in the locker room after the game last night when nio Campbell was talking to him is that he’s talking

About how he can complement his teammates so he’s 19 years old and he’s not coming in here saying well hey I was Big 10 like all big 10 I scored 18 16 a game and I’m one of the best and I’m gonna just do my thing like a lot of

Guys come into the league and they’re like well I’m gonna be the man he is really doing a wonderful job of trying to assimilate into his teammates and be the fifth guy on the floor and I think he’s built for it but I think he’s built

For better than that I don’t know that I think you know I those numbers are real and his athleticism being only okay is probably why he can’t just emerge over the top of everyone else but he’s gonna be better than your fifth offense on the floor offensively he’s got a dribble

Drive game he’s got a particularly crossover to his left hand game he’s a if he’s left open he’s going to bang down shots if he needs to come off the bouns he can do it he’s got a complete offensive package um and particularly those numbers at Ohio State are so

Impressive to me because it was a bad basketball team and the criticism of him is that he just played he was the only guy offensively and he was just doing everything himself well that should hurt your numbers so for his numbers to be that good at Ohio State as we begin to

See him play night in and night out I I’m a fan uh I’m a I’m a bright sens of believer now obviously the knees have got to play along physical conditioning has to play along uh but what we saw last night 58 from the field two of four

From three 15 points is exactly what I think he do and I wouldn’t be surprised I would suspect he will drop 20 and somewhere and he’s going to have a five or six three-point shooting make game coming up here when somebody doesn’t Focus defensively they give him too many

Looks he takes it and I think a little bit when will kind of says all right go right now Will’s comment about him and you know this the conversations I’m interested in all the things that aren’t about scoring so 12 rebounds last night from sens great only one assist but he showed the

Ability to pass it um and it’s hard it showed the ability to pass in the G league and it’s hard to be a high assist guy when you’re the fourth or fifth option on the floor so um really very impressive by Bryce Sensa all right we’re gonna try next to dig into this

Concept of defending the three and what’s going on in the league with three-point shooting and whether we’ve maybe we’re about to swing back to more twos no but it’s pretty complicated there’s a lot of really interesting stuff done slown on it I will try to

Make it sense of it I will try to do an adequate job and then tomorrow we’ll do ask LJ so if I blow it today you can ask some questions on that we’re just getting started we’ll dig into that when we continue here on locked on

Jaz today’s edition of locked on jazz is brought to you in part by Nissan and Nissan’s got three cards to tell you about the 2024 Nissan Rogue is perfect for City drives great escapes the class exclusive Google built-in is always updating assistant calls on everything you need gone to the days of connected

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Carry the show to the heights that it has gone all right so the Jazz allow a ton of Threes or that really right now the problem is people are making a ton of Threes with the Jazz what is happening in the league right now is that teams are making 37% of their

Threes okay League average is 37% what has also happened for the first time ever now with he’s making 37% is they’re making 54% of their twos and that’s the same people okay so this gets super interesting for the first time ever in League average we have now twos are back

To being about at the same rate as two if you shoot a two-point shot right now in the league you’re getting 1.08 points per shot and if you shoot a three right now at 37% you’re getting 1.11 points per so the three is still a little higher but overall we’re getting closer

That’s that’s a change it’s not quite there but it’s a change now let’s get to part two the rim is 66.1% so the rim is still the Holy Grail 66 0.1% on twoo shots means that if you shoot a two at The Rim you’re ending up at well about 1.3

Points per shot right you we can do that mass 1.32 even the best Rim defenders in the NBA The Walker castlers the Rudy go Bears all the rest of them are not they have an impact they’re like Walker and Rudy have a massive impact they have the

Two Bas by Victor web and Yama those three guys right now are having the biggest impact of anyone league and if they’re close they’re moving the rim shot from 66% down to like 58 59% like on and maybe even better but that’s still the way most efficient shot and so it’s really

Getting down to you’ve got to deny the rim you absolutely have to deny the rim and if you look at the NBA the last team in the league to basically ever play two guys that couldn’t shoot couldn’t pass and couldn’t dribble the Utah Jazz with Rudy goar and Derrick favers that’s the

Last team that existed in the NBA where two guys were on the floor at the same time that couldn’t shoot and couldn’t pass you now sometimes have one guy that couldn’t can’t shoot and can’t pass but you have four guys that can so the floor has become so dramatically spaced in every single

Game that it’s almost impossible to defend it all and in fact those teams that have decided okay we’re going to defend the three we’re going to not allow you to get threo shots this year so who are the teams that frequency wise have decided that you’re not allowed to shoot threes

Indiana the Indiana Pacers have sold out they’re allowing 20 only 29% of opponent shots is three 7% League average they rank 27th in the league defensively they allow the most Rim shots in the league it’s a bad equation in fact the five teams in the NBA that deny the most

Threes rank 30th 21st 20th 22nd and 28th in defending the rim you no longer can take away both things the rim those teams that try to deny the three the only team that’s half decent at it right now is Milwaukee and Minnesota okay Minnesota is the sixth

Best team at denying the Milwaukee is the sixth best team in the league of den n three and the eighth best team at deny in the rim Brook Lopez and Minnesota is the seventh best team in the league at denying the three and the fifth best

Team at deny the rim Rudy goar so Walker Kessler this is your job like how do you allow us to be one of those two teams because if you look at NBA defense right now the number one defensive team in the league is Minnesota and Milwaukee who was terrible under Adrien Griffin has

Become the number two defense in the league since Doc Rivers took over okay so that is the goal but there’s only two teams that can do it if you look at the teams that are denying the three Indiana ranks 27th defensively Detroit ranks 29th defensively Denver who is going to

Win a championship probably again or could is in this group surprisingly they do rank eighth defensively overall Washington it ranks 30th defensively and Portland ranks 24th defensively so the five teams that have decided we’re not GNA let you shoot threes rank 27th 29th 30th 24th and

Denver you are at a point now in the NBA where one the rim is so efficient the two-point shot that the difference between what you can do at the rim and you do a three and you can’t deny them both is you’re basically conceding that you’re giving up threes okay right

You’re basically conceding if you want to shoot threes and what’s happening on the other side offensively now is that the three is not so much wildly more efficient than it used to be it used to be when this revolution of three-point shot started that the teams that took

The most threes became the teams that won the most and had the most offense John Hollinger wrote a paper at Sloan conference about 10 years ago and literally it said like if you take more three not make take you win more games and it was like this massive Revolution

Into the NBA well Boston’s doing it right now and we can talk about Boston because they have eight players that shoot above average on threes and they’re breaking the league because you suddenly have to allow threes because if they get to if you get to the ri teams

Are too good if they get to the rim and Boston has eight guys that are above average shooting threes and so no one can defend them ask the Warriors but here’s what’s interesting the teams that shoot the most threes are not necessarily totally correlated to the best offensive teams

Anymore Boston takes the most their of the best offense okay they’re breaking the league but they may be an outlier Memphis takes the second most amount of Threes in the NBA and their offense is 30th Dallas takes the next amount of Threes their offense is six they have

Golden State takes the fourth most amount of Threes in the league they’re 13th Sacramento takes next their 15th Milwaukee is sixth they take SI their fifth it’s no longer nearly as skewed as it once was Cleveland takes the next and they’re 18th so and frankly the Brooklyn Nets and the

Utah Jazz are next they’re 22nd and we’re 16th it’s not necessarily what it once was and if you look at the teams that don’t shoot threes Denver doesn’t shoot threes little low a little concerning they’re the seventh best team in the league offensively Phil Philadelphia doesn’t shoot threes they’re the 10th

Best team in the league offensively New Orleans doesn’t shoot threes they’re the 12th best offensive teams the Lakers don’t shoot threes they’re 15th in the league Detroit doesn’t shoot threes their 26th and Orlando doesn’t shoot threes in their 23rd that wasn’t necessarily an order but there’s no longer this direct

Correlation between if you shoot threes you’re great offensively you don’t shoot threes you’re great offensive that’s it used to be that the higher three-point attempts you took the better your offense was that’s not true anymore more and so what’s happening here is if you take a team I mean just

Make sure we understand this though for one second Oklahoma City is taking 34% of their shots as threes they rank 20th in the NBA 20th in the NBA if we go back let’s go back what should we go back I’m just making this up I’m doing this on the Fly

Six years the 17 18 season so if we go back to the 1718 season them taking 30 whatever that they would the league average was 31% of shots if they were at 34% they would have been like the sixth most common three-point shooting team in the league

And they’re 20th now right so what what’s changed is that everyone’s on board 36% of all shots in the NBA are now threes in non- blowout minutes I’m using clean the glass if you go back 10 years to the 2013 or 145 season The League average was

24% the 34% by Oklahoma City was 20th in the league would be second behind only Mike dantony and Houston who were were breaking league so we may have hit the point here where defenses are like oh okay if you want to keep going with your threes you

Can and we’ll talk about the impact of that as we continue and also what it means for the Jazz defense and also one thing that might mean that’s bad for the NBA that’s as we continue here on lockdown Jazz Today’s Show is brought to you by game time game time is the official

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Tickets lowest price guaranteed so what does all this mean for the NBA and what does this mean for the Utah Jazz so the first thing about on the Utah Jazz is yes we need to defend the three-point shot better but there is a little bit where you’re just somewhat having bad luck

Probably have a little a little bit more urgency with our Closeouts but the fact is what the Jazz are doing is the right thing right now and it’s not just to give up open threes these guys are too good of Shooters to just give up open

Threes but to cut off the inside cut off the paint they only allowed I think points in the paint last night was really reasonable by Utah uh they only allowed 48 points in the paint last night to a team that pounds pounds it inside and that is the right way to play

Defense we’re fundamentally seeing the Jazz do what they need to do defensively and then teams are burying threes right now on top of us and at some point you one hope that those numbers come back to your benefit and number two you know you do have to close out better as you get

Longer hopefully you do that but that number actually kind of huged the Jazz right now are 18th in the league in three-point shots allowed you’d like to be uh you probably really the number you’re looking at is we’re ninth in the league at denying shots at The Rim golden state is dramatically better

Than the rest of the NBA at denying shots of the rim just kind of remarkably um and then Miami Boston Lakers Minnesota Sacramento I mean winning teams are the teams that are denying shots of the rim and the best defensive teams Minnesota’s number one defensive team in

The league they’re fifth best at n in the r Boston’s number two in the league they’re third best in the league Cleveland’s the third best defense in the league they surprisingly I was stunned when I saw this today with their personal they’re allowing more shots at The Rim than I would have anticipated

They’re 17th in the league at Rim defense Orlando is 15th at Rim defense and fourth best and then Oklahoma City right in there as well so all those teams are at least above average Houston who’s the sixth best defensive team in the league is seventh best at denying the rim those

Teams that are denying The Rim the top teams Golden State Miami Boston Lakers are allowing threes Golden State’s 26 in the league of to 9 threes Miami’s 28th Boston’s 27th and the Lakers are 24th now here’s one interesting thing on this and this depends on where the next

Trend is so everyone’s going to try to be Boston because they’re dominant they look like they’re on their way to winning a championship they are absolutely throttling people right now and they they just look great well here’s what they’ve got going forth Drew holiday is shooting 45% from

Three Sam Hower is shooting 42 Dereck white is shooting 41 Al Horford is shooting 40 Payton Pritchard is shooting 38 Chris ABS porzingis is shooting 38 Jason Tatum is shooting 37 and Jaylen Brown is shooting 35% from three they have one player in their entire roster shooting below average

From three and you saw what happened when Golden State tried to leave him open so that’s going to be the Future model for everyone is whether or not you can field a roster of eight guys who can shoot threes and when you suddenly can do do

That then I don’t know what happens and as we get there we’re have another offensive explosion but most teams can’t do it right we’ve got Colin Saxton at 40 Lowry at 40 Chris Dunn at 39 Sensa too early in the season then we drop below average immediately Keon’s at 35

Taylor’s at 33 John Collins is at 33 Tayon Horton Tucker at 33 and Jordan’s at 29 I didn’t round anybody up there I just gave their first number okay here’s what it means for the NBA that I’m not totally in love with because the two and the three have become pretty close

Together what it really is that’s the big impact here is that because the three doesn’t get fouled and doesn’t go to the free throw line that’s really the right defensive move that’s really the key thing here is that the three doesn’t get fouled and the two trying to attack

Inside and getting in the rim and getting the basket also gets fouled and the free throw rate in the league kind of hovers right around 20% of all shots and they’re boring and guys make free throws so now if you think about the amount of times you get fouled on

Twos or fouled on threes suddenly playing aggressive basketball at The Rim not mid-range shots that don’t get fouled either but at The Rim is suddenly more advantageous and I wonder what what’s going to be interesting here is everyone starts talking about officiating and the offensive explosion and whether we’re going to change the

Rules is as people try to attack more and get more free throws and attack the rim more because that’s actually more efficient and defenses aren’t allowing it do we just get into a quagmire around the basket that isn’t being called fouls anymore because we don’t want the scoring explosion because we really

Don’t like free throws free throws take too long they’re boring they’re bad for the game and the league doesn’t like them league would like us to not go to the free throw half they’re really Hest from entertainment standpoint the league would like us not to go to the free

Throw but if the League’s not going to the free throw line and the numbers suddenly say like you’re better off attacking the basket do we just suddenly have this Quagmire of people kind of just attacking the basket and getting bounced around and beaten up and it gets

Physical again and then the game’s not nearly as interesting and everyone’s clogging is it harder to get passing Lanes out all sorts of things that’s my concern the free throw status in the league stays the same like that’s that’s kind of how it works if you go to

20145 10 years ago before the massive three-point shooting Revolution we our free throw rate was 21% that means how many free throws do you take for 100 attempts so we took 21 and now 10 years later and that’s when the 10 years later I think we’re at 19 like that number is

Staying pretty static the Le we’re at 19.7 the league holds that number right kind of there that’s kind of where the game is officiating is it’s why being very physical defensively probably makes sense you’re just not going to get called for that many fouls eventually um

And we just kind of stay the same but are we going to be able to stay the same as more less teams are now saying sure take the three because you’re not getting fouled and analytically it’s fine because everything else that’s because the two-point shooting’s better

And people and now so people keep it’s kind of this well you can’t deny the three you can deny the ram as a defense that’s really what we get to so I think this is going to be super interesting to see where this goes because defenses are going to do more

And more of like yeah shoot the three and then teams like the question is on teams like the Jazz right now for us specifically were allowing 40% of Threes to go in is that bad luck or is there something we can do defensively that tries to take improves

That the Delta usually between the highest level three-point shooting team one and in the league if you if you kind of just look at it at the end of a season by the way the usually the way it works is that there’s League average and you’re about two percentage points on

Each side so last year teams shot 36.5% from three and the best defense was 34 and the worst was usually about 38 this year that Delta seems to be a little wider it’s but usually it’s two percentage points this year it’s three on each side of the standard deviation

And so the theory has always been that that’s just bad luck that we’re pro you might be a little less good but it’s not that much and the lead and so what you have with the Jazz right now is they’re just a percentage point or so off of

Where they should be defensively if the league average is at 37% right now the team defending the three the best is at 35.1 which makes sense and there’s two teams Utah and Sacramento that are being unnaturally unlucky defensively allowing 40% of their shots as threes the next

Team down is at 38.9 which is right in that 2% Point Delta I think that’s actually probably true so we’ll see the one thing it does mean is that what the Jazz have been doing generally is correct in allowing teams to shoot threes now we just have

To defend it better but the real key is to take continue to take away the rim and then can Walker Kessler lead us to be one of those teams like Minnesota Milwaukee where we have the big guy in the middle that somehow does both all right that’s the analytical shift in the

NBA the defenses are going to willingly let you take three and offenses are probably going to be less willing to take them and try to drive more or everyone’s going to become Boston and have eight above average three-point Shooters and then the rules just don’t apply then you’re just dead if you’re a

Defense that is locked on Jazz today thanks very much for going on that Journey with me I hope it made sense I hope it was interesting feel free to feedback me on the comments on YouTube or send me an X note or send me a note

At d09 gmail.com we now send you the first ever 247 National Sports channel locked on sports today it’s also available on Amazon Fire TV throw it up on your TV if you got ESPN or Fox there and check it out and see if you like it I think you will

The Utah Jazz fell in the final moments to the Chicago Bulls, but Jazz rookie Brice Sensabaugh made his NBA starting debut and shined. David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, shares why he likes Sensabaugh so much out of the draft and why he is showing he has a complete offensive bag to carry with him in the NBA.

There is an anayltical shift taking place in the NBA right now around the value of the 3, the value of the 2 and the value of a free throw. David Locke walks through that, the impact on the Utah Jazz and the impact on the league. The Boston Celtics are breaking the model, but the trends are clear that defensively you can only do one thing and it better be take away the rim.

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