How Much Does the End of The Regular Season Matter to Playoff Success? | Islands In The League

How Much Does the End of The Regular Season Matter to Playoff Success? | Islands In The League

Welcome to another episode of islands in the league our exclusive YouTube video series presented by draftking Sportsbook got a fun episode for you guys today we’re going to do a quick examination and a thought about post Allstar break team records and does it really matter in a Chase for a title we’re also

Introducing a new segment called build around where we take one past player one past NBA great and discuss how we would build around that player in today’s NBA using real players from the modern game and of course as always we’ll be joined by Josh applebomb our resident sports

Betting expert this is islands in the league presented by draftking sports book let’s go look every single team wants to play well going into the playoffs it’s much better than the alternative where you’re out of sorts out of rhythm questions about your defense questions about your

Offense but is the end of the regular season more noise than anything else you certainly can look at recent examples last year the Lakers 16-4 in their last 20 games end up winning their playing game get all the way to the Conference Finals before they’re swept from the

Nuggets but if you look at the past two NBA champions the Denver Nuggets in 2023 and the Golden State Warriors in 2022 the Nuggets were 12- 11 after the All-Star break the warriors were 11- 12 after the All-Star break now some of that for the Nuggets last season they

Rested some starters their defense cratered they fell apart in their ations joic at times seemed a little disinterested in winning his third straight MVP let’s be honest but they rebounded in time they introduced a new rotation with Aaron Gordon at the backup center during the playoffs they shortened everything out and they went

On to win the franchise’s first championship now if we took a look at the last 15 NBA Finals both the champion and the runnerup all of those teams combined 30 teams in 15 Seasons had a winning percentage of 65.5 perc after the All-Star break teams now play roughly 55 games before the

All-Star break and 27 games after that’s essentially a 17 and 10 or an 189 record pretty good so it is a little bit of a marker that in the last 15 years finals teams have played well in the second half of the Season there’s some outliers

Though the 2013 Miami Heat went 30 and2 after the All-Star break the 2020 Miami Heat the bubble year they went 9- 10 after the All-Star break the 2017 Cav with LeBron James went 12 and 15 after the All-Star break the point is regular season success after the All-Star break

Is not necessarily indicative of whether or not a team is going to make a deep finals run why is that well historically a lot of teams will rest players towards the end of the regular season some teams if they’re fighting for a better Lottery Position will shut a player down for the

Rest of the season in the hopes of potentially losing more games and securing a top five pick or a top eight pick whatever it may be of course there’s injuries as well I’ll give you a great example our 2009 Orlando Magic team that went to the NBA finals we

Started the first half of the Season through 4 41 games at 33 and8 we finished the rest of the season 26- 15 we were 21-10 after the All-Star break Jamir Nelson got hurt didn’t come back until the NBA Finals we picked up Ray for auson at the deadline that team of

Course ended up making the NBA Finals the next year we started the season 26-5 identical to the second half of the season the year before we finished that season season 33-8 we swept the first two rounds of the playoffs so we were 41-8 going into the Eastern Conference

Finals and then Boston killed us got up 3 0 we ended up losing that Series in six games of course that Boston team went on to lose game seven against the Los Angeles Lakers that Boston team by the way just 18 and 14 after the All-Star break now why do I bring this

Up because the playoffs to me have always been about matchups manipulating matchups which teams you match up good against which teams you match match up poorly against and the best coaches know how to exploit mismatches so when all of us are prognosticating about who’s going

To make the NBA Finals so much of this comes down to a potential injury you think about Giannis last year in the buck Series against the Miami Heat missing essentially two and a half games you think about a hot shooting stretch or a cold shooting stretch late game

Execution the playoffs can come down to such small little details I’ll give you an example of why matchups matter the LA Clippers have been one of the best teams in the NBA since December 1st they have lost a total of eight games to only six teams those teams are the New Orleans

Pelicans the Los Angeles Lakers the Boston Celtics the Thunder Twice The Wolves twice and the Cleveland Cavaliers what are those teams have in common well five of those six teams are all rated in the top six in defensive efficiency the Lakers of course are 15th as of today

Four of those teams the Wolves the Thunder the Celtics and the Cavs are the top four teams at defending the rim literally allowing the lowest field goal percentage at The Rim on layups and dunks one of those teams the New Orleans Pelicans rake second in ISO defense we

Talk all the time about herb Jones and his importance particularly in the playoffs if he’s able to keep shooting at a 40% clip from three the LA Clippers well they run the most isolations in the NBA in the half court so as the regular season comes to an end and we start

Looking at potential playoff matchups think about these things they’re probably more important than a team’s record after the allstar break all right welcome to a new segment called build around often times we talk about how would a past NBA great look in today’s modern NBA and I think it’s no

Secret Michael Jordan with all of this space that has been created by the three-point Revolution analytics all of that stuff he would absolutely destroy in today’s NBA but how would you build around Michael Jordan for the purposes of this exercise I’m going to use a salary cap I’m going to use current

Player salaries and for Michael Jordan he is going to make $51 million for the purposes of this exercise because that’s what Steph Curry makes Steph Curry is the highest paid player in today’s NBA at 51 million that’s what MJ is getting for the purposes of this exercise now

For how much my team has to spend I basically took the teams with the five highest payrolls the Golden State Warriors the LA Clippers the Phoenix Suns the Milwaukee Bucks and the Boston Celtics averaged out those five payrolls it came to $195 million I’m going come

Up with a rotation of eight players the rest will be filled out with minimum contracts for some people Michael Jordan is the goat for other people maybe it’s LeBron James maybe it’s Kobe maybe it’s Steph maybe it’s Kareem maybe it’s Bill Russell I get it here’s the thing

Michael Jordan today’s NBA would be a player that had room to drive he would attack the basket he would average a ton of free throws and if he played today’s NBA he’d probably take eight to to 10 three-point shots a game when I think about Michael Jordan outside of the

Triangle system and Phil Jackson you think about him in the late 80s there was a stretch of games where he played point guard had a number of triple doubles Michael Jordan would be the primary Creator ball handler all of that stuff so for me it starts with who would

You want in a backcourt with Michael Jordan that’s the first decision to be made what I would want in a backcourt mate for Michael Jordan is a great point of attack Defender I don’t want Michael Jordan chasing around Steph Curry I don’t want Michael Jordan having to play

Pick and roll defense on Trey young I want a great point of attack Defender someone who can function as a ball handler but also play off the ball someone who can make 40% or more from three who is that person I’m describing well of course it’s Derek white who else would it

Be I mean come on it’s obvious it’s obvious Derek white makes $18.3 million all right so Michael Jordan at 51 Derek white at 18 now couple of years ago I made a draft day trade with the New York Knicks and I moved up to the 11th pick

Of the 2022 NBA draft and who did I select I select Jaylen Williams Jaylen Williams by the way has been the second best jump shooter in the NBA this season at 49% of all jump shots twos and threes he’s made 49% of his jumpers he’s going

To be one of my Winks because I think about it with Jordan he would be a switchable defend defender in today’s NBA I want two more of those switchable Defenders Jaylen Williams is one he’s only making 4.5 he’s got a couple years left before his Max rookie contract to

Extension kicks in I know he hasn’t signed it yet but he will therefore Perfect Fit Jaylen Williams third starter now I talked about switchable Wing guys and I could go big here I could go for like a Jason Tatum I just don’t think functionally there’s a way

For me to acquire Jason Tatum I didn’t have the draft pick unfortunately in 2017 to draft him so I’m going to go with a guy who was traded not too long ago Mel Bridges coming in right around 22 million a year Mel can shoot threes you can run offense for him directly in

The second unit he’s at 22 million all right so I’ve got Derek White Michael Jordan Jaylen Williams Mel Bridges Center uh several years ago I had a early second round pick and I decided to draft a Serbian player named Nia yic that player turned out to be one of the

Great players of all time he’s won a couple MVPs even won me a Finals MVP uh Nicole yic makes 47 million a year so Nicole yic is my center now you think about it Nicole yic likes to play up and pick and roll on the backside of my

Defense and on the ball I’ve got Derek White Michael Jordan Mel Bridges and Jaylen Williams flying around creating Havoc joic up and pick and roll I like it also the reason I like joic with Jordan you think about Michael Jordan in that Tri Le system he was great off the

Ball as a cutter he was great off the ball getting pin downs I’m imagining a two-man game with Michael Jordan and Nicole yic sign me up the other thing about pairing a big with Michael Jordan is again it goes back to the spacing issue I want a big who can also shoot

Now Nicole yic in the regular season 35% it’s good enough for me in the playoffs Nicole yic for his career at 41.2% Michael Jordan on this team would have all the space in the world I love this team I love this team my starter salaries equate to roughly 142 or 143

Million so I’ve got some room to work with in building out my eight-man rotation uh I’m going to go with a guy who can serve as the backup point guard who can guard a number of positions and who can shoot threes off the ball at a high clip and he’s made making a

Ridiculously low salary this year I’m going to go with Alex Caruso at roughly $9 million a year I know I have a lot of these three and D guys but I want one more all right I want one more he’s on an expiring contract it gives me

Flexibility for the future I want Royce O’Neal give me Royce O’Neal at $9 million so now I’ve got Alex Caruso Royce O’Neal coming off the bench for me third I need another big I need somebody to back up joic now if you look at the Denver Nuggets in the regular season

Historically they have gotten torched in the non-ic minutes I need somebody who’s going to really really help my bench units function both on the offensive end and the defensive end don’t have a ton of money left I’m going to go with Isaiah hartenstein from the New York Knicks that’s my eight-man rotation

That’s how I would build around Michael Jordan all of my salaries together total about 170 million which means I saved my owner $25 million plus the luxury tax I think he’d be more than happy with me as a GM this is a hilarious exercise and I

Can’t wait to do this all the time wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait wait since I’ve got 25 million left there’s one other guy that I really want on this team that I think would be a perfect fit and I know you don’t need

Three bigs in today’s NBA in a rotation however the number one team in the west has three bigs in their rotation give me Nas Reed coming off the bench shooter Defender can playmake a little bit he’s only making $12.9 million give me him still my owner’s happy he’s got 13

Million left for my original bu question for you guys how would you build around Michael Jordan all right let’s welcome in Josh applebomb Josh how we doing my friend JJ I’m doing great but uh are you getting excited for the playoffs 70% of the season is down 30% to go JJ we got

Playoff races I got questions for you about who’s going to win six-man I got a very competitive Division I need to get your take on who’s going to win it uh and then also a very important team to make or miss the postseason so JJ it’s

Great to be with you how are you doing I’m good man and yes to answer your question uh can’t wait for the playoffs to be here it still seems like there’s so much to sort through particularly in the Western Conference uh so why don’t we start there what do you have for me

Yeah so I got a question for you JJ about the Golden State Warriors now there’s an interesting prop BET right now at DraftKings will they make or miss the postseason now the important caveat here which we’ve talked about on your show is that in order to make this bet

In order to cash this bet they have to not only make the play in but win the play in and then get into the official postseason so basically the question is can they either you know make the regular playoffs doesn’t seem likely based on the record but can they make

The the play in and then win the play in and get to the regular postseason now the odds right now JJ plus 105 yes minus 130 no so it’s a relatively coin flip of a situation here now the slight favorite here is to miss the postseason so they

Could make the plan but not advance or just not make the plan altogether that’s about a 57% implied probability and looking at where we stand with this team uh JJ all the talent in the world question are kind of you know looking at uh consistency and now they have been

Playing well as of late they’re 10 and three they’ve been hovering around 500 they’re two games up right now Wiggins being healthy has made a big impact here obviously draymond’s back we still go through the drama with him every now and again kinga’s had a big year now clay

He’s been kind of a odd situation here his lowest career three-point percentage he’s coming off the bench now at times Brandon psky this is a guy that I’ve been watching JJ I know you are familiar with too he’s brought them quite a bit of life but they have 20 six games left

Uh their strength of schedule maybe this will sway your opinion JJ it’s the sixth easiest strength of strength of schedule down the stretch their opponents have a 469 win percentage so what’s your take on Golden State JJ is this a team that just doesn’t have it this year do they

Make the postseason uh in terms of this prop bet would you go no minus 130 to make the play in and win in advance or would you go plus 105 yes you know it’s interesting because of the distinction between playin versus playoffs right so we look at the standings right now they

Are three games back in the Lost column from getting an automatic playoff birth the six seed Phoenix Suns has 20 have 24 losses Sacramento Kings with 23 as of this recording Warriors in 10th as you said with 27 losses but this is a team that is absolutely trending in the right

Direction they made Jonathan kaminga a permanent starter uh going into the game on January 27th they played 14 games since then they’re 10 and four here’s the the indicators for me since that change they have the number four defense over the last four 14 games in the NBA

They have the number 10 offense for this season again we’ve had injuries we’ve had uh Draymond Green suspensions so they don’t have a ton of fiveman lineup data in fact their most used fiveman lineup is their new starting lineup uh 16 games together about 148 minutes but

That group has a 20 21.6 net rating so if you’re thinking about trending in the right direction they’re trending in the right direction with a change that has been made and CP coming back soon from his injury I I don’t want to say yes or

No but I would say if the money at plus 105 is the yes and you want to win some money that’s probably the way to go because this is a team that is going forward I I I’m very positive about all the metrics all the indicators how

They’re playing the thing with kaminga I mean this is a team that has really just struggled to score in the paint and he has given them something that they frankly just haven’t had and that is a bulldozer of a driver he attacks the rim his cutting has improved so much over

The last two years he’s really learned to play Within the Steph Curry system uh you know and then the Draymond thing is huge too because I think with their with everybody talks about their defense and obviously their defense is is better with Draymond Green their offense functions so much better with Draymond

Green in the lineup because he’s a hub because he’s a quarterback his decisionmaking the way he gets defensive rebounds and pushes Pace they they needed all of that and it was certainly missing in the time that he’s been out of the lineup so I like this team I like

The way they’re playing uh my my general sort of feeling on it is that they will be in the playoffs the only caveat to that and we discussed this earlier this week on on our podcast I mean you look at these top 10 teams in the Western Conference it’s really hard

To decipher you know even when we get to the playoffs and it’s one through eight what’s an easy series for a higher seed and if you’re in that seven to 10 spot working to get into the playin and let’s say Golden State doesn’t move up to six well you know Pelicans Suns Kings

Potentially Mavs Lakers Warriors I mean these these games games are going to be incredibly competitive and so it’s really hard I think to predict how this is all going to shake out because the Lakers have played better the Warriors have played better the Mavs uh lost last

Night but we’re on a SE seven game win streak they look like a different team with PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford I’ve been high on the Pelicans all year uh Phoenix Suns when they are healthy have one of the best fiveman units in the entire NBA uh and the Sacramento

Kings dearen Fox back to playing at an all NBA level he had a great start to the season I’m not going to say he he he he fell off but his play of late four straight games 25 five and five come on man like this western conference is

Loaded and I I think in this case like I said Josh if you’re looking to make some money the the plus is is is the one for me and all the indicators say that the Golden State Warriors are playing good basketball right now yeah I’m right

There with you JJ again I think it’s a product of just the loaded Western Conference that you talk about just so many great teams here uh I kind of respect obviously the oddsmakers are putting a minus number in front of the no you know no minus plus yes I think

There’s a psychological thing toward wanting to go yes plus money but I would lean there again just the way the direction this team is playing now JJ you mentioned uh this loaded Western Conference I got another question I got to ask you we got to go to the Northwest

Division uh in the NBA because this division here is loaded and there are three teams that all are kind of uh slight dogs here or you know kind of co-favorites to win this Northwestern division now I wanted to give you an a division here that was competitive

Because there are others like you know the Clippers are minus 25500 to win their division Celtics are such a favorite they’re off the board so you get a lot of minus numbers that just probably will hit but aren’t betable because they’re so expensive but here’s

Where I think we can make some money JJ if you look at the current odds from the Northwest division Oklahoma City is the favorite at plus 135 about 100 win 135 get your 100 back if they Cash t-wolves Plus 175 right behind them then the nuggets are plus 250 Now jazz no shot

Here they’re plus 10,000 we have three teams between plus 135 and plus 250 so I think if you can cap this one correctly this is a money-making opportunity now we do have OKC and the t-wolves tied the nuggets are one and a half games back but three teams separated by one and a

Half games I mean there’s some value here if you can find the plus money now OKC does have the easiest remaining schedule of all the three teams but they’re relatively close 492 is their uh their remaining schedule 493 for Minnesota Denver basically playing 500 teams down the stretch but I’m looking

At some offensive defensive efficiency ratings JJ I mean OKC based on the metrics you know I bet a lot of college basketball lean on Ken pal hollingers metrics really say OKC is the best team of the three they’re number two offensive efficiency number four defensive now Minnesota is only 17th

Offensive but they have a great defense they’re number one and then Denver it just feels like maybe you’re not respecting them or I’ll get your take on how meaningful it is to win this division after you win the uh the NBA title but they’re 10th offensive 12th

Defensive so JJ I don’t know if you can go wrong picking any of these three teams to win this division here but what do you think OKC t-wolves nuggets who do you like to win this Division and where can we get some plus money here yeah I I

Think you’re I think you’re spot on here that there’s really not there’s really not anything that separates these teams when we look at some of these Advanced numbers um you mentioned the Minnesota offense and I think that’s important but their defense has been just so damn good

This year that uh they still are one of the top teams in the NBA in terms of net rating uh despite having such a bad defense they third overall in net rating Oklahoma City 2 uh Boston uh ahead of everybody else at number one so all three of these teams are excellent

Basketball teams all three of these teams to me are contenders in the Western Conference to me this is a tossup and you mentioned the money they’re all plus money right my my only thing my only thing and this is not a prediction Josh my only thing is that

Last year we saw the Denver Nuggets secure the number one seed and I’m not going to say they punted the last few weeks of the regular season but they sat some guys their defense really fell off they were a top 10 defense for like three straight months last season the

Way they’ve defended lately I really like uh joic back to just mastering the game controlling every aspect of the game his defense has been really good so if if I had to say one I I think to win the division potentially would be the Denver Nuggets but I like all three of

These teams so much I really do this is a very hard one for me to predict to be honest I’m with you I think again you can make a case for all three of these I mean just the value in terms of a defending champ plus 250 obviously the

Home court Edge at Mile High uh is really important as well and then OKC I mean they’re great but you know they’re a bit young they haven’t really been in this spot before maybe questions about them as well so I’m with you JJ think the value probably is with Denver here

But uh it’s a coin flip between all three um we talked about this uh last week and I but I want to get some of your thoughts and and go over the updated odds here on the Sixth Man of the Year um because to me all of these regular season

Awards uh one of the big factors is team success I I think generally rookie of the year is probably the one that matters the least um Coach of the Year MVP the all-nba awards like all the voters are factoring in team success so where do we stand right now with the

Sixth Man of the Year and I’ll get into sort of how that relates to what I think will happen or what what I think is is trending in sort of over the last uh 25 24 games of the Season yeah JJ so I think we’ve done a pretty good job on

The show highlighting the awards Market throughout the year I mean if you’ve been listening you’ve been holding some pretty good numbers right now we highlighted joic MVP he’s all the way to minus 160 now that embiid’s been hurt we also talked about most improved JJ you

Really crushed on that one we had Maxi I don’t know a month ago a month and a half ago at like plus 100 even money Maxi is now minus 240 so again these numbers have moved uh but this is kind of the last one to me that has some

Value now as we stand right now JJ Malik monk is the favorite to in the six man of the year he’s minus 130 it’s a minus number but it’s not that expensive that’s playable to me Powell is plus 400 on the Clippers and Tim Hardaway Jr is

Plus 500 now Hardaway actually at one Point throughout the season was the favorite here uh but again we also saw Austin Reeves as the favorite so I think this award is really important because it’s not just you know who you think is coming off the bench but do they play

Well enough to them be a starter and then obviously the rules here like all the other games all the other Awards you got to play 65 games you gota come off the bench more often than you than you start so Reeves really isn’t in that conversation I mean Russell Westbrook at

One point uh had his name up here on the odds so I’m just looking at you know kind of what you mentioned JJ like I think last year Malcolm Brogden was a great example of this award because you know he had a really good year 15 points four rebounds six assists never started

A single game he had 67 games off the bench but as you mentioned he was really the best player off the bench on the best team in the NBA and I think to your point of where these voters gravitate toward that’s kind of the recipe for

Winning this one so I’m looking at the records right now I mean Clippers are great 37 and 19 um you know they’ve been making a push here for the top seat out west Powell’s averaging 14 points a game three rebounds one assist Malik monk though I want to your take on Malik monk

He hasn’t started a single game he’s come off the bench every single game Sacramento’s 33 and 23 he’s averaging 15 points a game that’s a career high and then Hardaway obviously he’s down here a little bit um but he has started some games so to me you know I think the

Question is if you believe in monk you probably want to play him now minus 130 because that number could get higher or JJ I’d love your thoughts on Powell because Powell’s a guy who has really ascended in this award Market recently he really wasn’t up there in the top

Three or four for much of the year he’s really made a push as of late yeah I think Malik monk uh as the odd State he he’s the favorite here um you know part of this award to me is like the winning for sure the production for

Sure but what does your team need and and how important is that to what you’re what you’re trying to do as a team and Malik monk coming off the bench has been fantastic I think the one thing that I would sort of you know for some of us

Like me that are uh Advanced at nerds uh you know the the lineup says that when herder’s on the court with the other four starters their net rating is I think around eight 7.7 7.6 something like that uh as of today with monk in in that lineup uh outside of

Herder uh which was is their second most used lineup after their normal starting group uh they’re at minus. three so impact on winning certainly but as you said Malik monk uh he’s averaging a career high in points also averaging a career high in assist this is his best

Season and he certainly fits the mold of a true Sixth Man uh Powell is interesting to me because of the Clippers overall team success something to certainly monitor especially as these numbers shift and he stays probably in the pluses I don’t think he becomes the oddson favorite uh unless it’s super

Late uh but when I look at their team and I think about uh the big three and and sort of how much they matter to that team uh it’s hard for me to to say I would as of today I would vote for Norman Powell six man the one guy that’s

Interesting is Tim Hardaway I was his teammate I’ve seen him go on six seven eight nine game runs where he shoots 45% from three and goes for about 20 a game he’s certainly capable down the stretch as this Mavs roster uh this improved MAV roster hopefully positions themselves

For a higher playoff seed so at plus 500 if if you’re looking to take some plus money here I I think that’s the that’s the to play over Norman Powell um but Malik monk still I think is the the Sixth Man of the Year as of today yeah

Lead monk too JJ and I’ll just give you a quick story here I was at the Super Bowl uh for obviously covering the football game here we talk NBA but you would have loved this because the comeback Player of the Year War just to kind of make a connection NBA and NFL

For these Awards because they are voted on by people I mean Demar Hamlin all year was the huge favorite he was as high as like minus 500 to the comeback player of the year it wasn’t until the very end where Joe Flaco out of nowhere

LED you know the Browns to a couple wins down the stretch and his money moved really late but I was actually at the same hotel when they did the NFL awards and when when they announced it was flacko it was an absolute shock I mean people had loaded up on Demar hlin all

Year long thinking hey he doesn’t have to have 10 interceptions as long as he plays The Comeback story after that you know really scary situation on the field he was going to wrap this thing up so just the caution to all the betters out there that you know things can change

They are voted on by humans uh but as of right now I mean you really got to trust the data and it does say monk is your favorite also too you know as someone who uh you know watches these Awards all the time like I think a lot of Voters do

Wait to the very end you know there there’s there’s I think 24 hours from the end of the regular season the last last game to when your your votes are essentially due and I know a lot of people wait till the end uh some people vote early and they’ve made up their

Minds but this this stuff can all shift uh fascinating stuff Josh always a pleasure to catch up uh great topics today and we’ll catch up with you soon sounds good JJ thanks for having me all right thanks this has been another episode of islands in the league presented by draftking Sportsbook as

Always thank you for Watching

Welcome to another episode of Islands in the League presented by DraftKings Sportsbook. In this episode, JJ examines the end of the regular season and how much that has mattered to teams in the past like Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets and LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers. Then we have a new segment called “Build Around” which is simple – how would you build around an NBA legend in today’s NBA. First up – Michael Jordan. And finally we welcome in Josh Appelbaum to talk Golden State Warriors playoff odds and more.

Subscribe to The Old Man and The Three podcast w/ JJ Redick (ESPN / First Take) and Tommy Alter YouTube channel today for more NBA analysis, player interviews and highlights.

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