Which Teams Were “Lucky” to Win an NBA Championship?

Which Teams Were “Lucky” to Win an NBA Championship?

Welcome to another episode of islands in the league our exclusive YouTube series presented by draftking Sportsbook in this episode I will be talking about luck in the NBA as it relates to winning a championship I will also be continuing our build around Series this time I’ll be building around sha and finally as

Always we’ll be joined by our resident sports betting expert Josh applebomb all right this is islands in the league let’s let’s get it everybody always talks about luck in the NBA oh this team was lucky to win this player is lucky to have a championship this player is lucky to

Have four championships you can put an asteris Asis asterisk asterisk asterisk you can put an asterisk next to nearly any NBA championship I’m sorry you can part of this is just the nature of the sport right basketball so often is looked at for a singular play making the

Difference when in reality basketball is about the aggregate of a series of plays hundreds sometimes of plays that come down to whether or not a team wins a game or wins a series and let’s not forget about injuries lose a star player for one or two games in a series or

Potentially an entire playoff run well is that luck I don’t know you still have to play the basketball game I think about this in my own career a little bit 2009 the one year I played in the NBA Finals with the Orlando Magic ultimately we lost to Kobe

Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers in five games I think about that playoff run a lot there were two different buzzer beaters in our Series against the Philadelphia 76ers in the first round Glenn Davis hit a buzzer beater to beat us during our Boston series in the

Second round turkalo hit a gamewinner in game game one of the Conference Finals LeBron hit a buzzer beater to beat us in game two Rashard Lewis hit a miraculous three-pointer off an inbounds play to get us to overtime in a game we won against the Cleveland Cavaliers and I think about

Injuries Kevin Garnett missed that entire playoff Run for the Boston Celtics we played the defending Champions the Boston Celtics in the second round and they didn’t have Kevin Garnett but at no point in time did we feel lucky that we made the NBA Finals we still had to play the games and then

In the finals we got destroyed in game one in Los Angeles game two we played a lot better had a chance to win it in regulation Courtney Lee missed a layup was that lucky on the Lakers part I actually don’t think so we executed a great play from Stan Van Gundy Courtney

Lee was in a position to score Pal Gasol recognized what was happening happening and made a fantastic play on the ball to contest and alter Courtney Lee’s shot that wasn’t luck that was basketball we win game three we go to game four game four we’re up five with under a minute

To go at home a chance to tie the series and this is back when the series were 232 we had another home game in game five what happens we miss a free throw Kobe Bryant gets a rebound dribbles down makes an insane pass to Pal Gasol who the basketball

8784 we don’t score again they take the ball out of bounds Derek fiser hits a shot a three-pointer over jir Nelson to send the game into overtime we lose we’re down 3-1 Kobe closes out in game five there was nothing about that sequence that felt lucky to anyone the

Lakers weren’t lucky that Courtney Lee missed the layup the Lakers weren’t lucky that Derrik fiser hit a three the Lakers weren’t lucky that we missed a free throw that’s part of basketball it’s not luck the game requires so much I lived a little bit too in 2015 with

The Clippers you know we were up 3-1 against the Houston Rockets and we blew that series we collectively blew that series Houston Rockets went on to lose in the Western Conference Finals to the Golden State Warriors and when the Golden State Warriors got to the finals against LeBron James and the Cleveland

Cavaliers guess what Kevin Love was hurt Kyrie Irving ended up getting hurt and it was an underman team that ended up losing to the Golden State Warriors but the Warriors weren’t lucky to win a championship it’s just not luck they still had to play the games my point is

I think it’s very easy to point to a specific play 2021 Kevin Durant Tow on the line in game s if he was wearing my size sneaker the Brooklyn Nets would have advanced to the Conference Finals and maybe the big three of Kyrie Irving Kevin Durant and James Harden would have

A championship in Brooklyn but that’s B bball again he made a move he happened to be on the line it’s not luck it’s the game even within that series Kyrie Irving sprays an ankle James Harden is coming off a hamstring injury that he suffered early in that series the

Milwaukee Bucks of course go on to win the NBA championship and then this past season Giannis gets injured early in game one of the Miami Heat series and everybody points to that oh he missed two and a half games he missed two and a half games the he were lucky the heat

Were lucky to win that series were they or did Jimmy Butler go crazy were they or did Max stru and all of the Miami Heat Shooters go ballistic did they shoot above what they had shot in the regular season were they a better team than they were in the regular season and

Damn it I lived it again in 2019 kawh Leonard that wasn’t a lucky shot there was nothing lucky about that he didn’t get a lucky bounce Kawhi Leonard has a certain shot trajectory Kawhi Leonard has a certain rotation on his basketball when he shoots it he hit

The rim perfectly it’s a shot I’d seen him make before he had beat Portland earlier that season on that same shot now it didn’t bounce five times it only bounced once but that’s kawh Leonard being kawh Leonard and of course the Raptors they go on to win the NBA

Championship Klay Thompson gets hurt Kevin Durant gets hurt there was nothing lucky about it though they still had to play the game they still had to beat a champion I mean I could point to a specific play or a specific injury in nearly every playoff run that benefited

One team and hurt another this is the NBA this is basketball there was nothing lucky about LeBron James winning an NBA championship in the bubble in 2020 there was nothing lucky about Luca donic leading the Dallas Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals you got to

Play the game you got to beat the team again you could do this for nearly every NBA season so here’s the thing it’s either all luck or hear me out here it’s just part of basketball all right welcome back to our build around segment today I thought

That I would build around literally one of my favorite players and personalities of all time in the NBA and that is Shaquille O’Neal as a reminder in this build-around exercise we are using a past NBA great and building a team around him using today’s NBA players we

Are also using current salaries and for the purposes of this exercise I have taken the teams with the five highest PVE rolls I have averaged those out and essentially I have $195 million to spend on a ninan rotation I want to be clear on one thing I can only use one of

Today’s NBA players once meaning one of today’s NBA players can only be on one of these build around teams so for example unfortunately I can’t put Derek white on Shaq’s team and that breaks my heart had I had Derek white available I would have definitely put him on this

Team I’m getting Prime Shack here I just want to be clear I am getting Prime Shaquille O’Neal I’m getting both young Orlando Shaquille O’Neal and I’m getting three Pete three-time Finals MVP with the Lakers Shaquille O’Neal I am getting the best version of Shaquille O’Neal so to start off our exercise Shaquille

O’Neal is going to make what Steph Curry is making this year he’s going to make $51 million Steph Curry is the highest paid player in the NBA this season so Shaq will get that salary just as Michael Jordan got that salary all right Shaquille O’Neal let’s be honest one of

The most dominant players of all time certainly one of the most dominant interior players of all time so I look at this in two ways Shaquille O’Neal in any era is going to dominate in the low post he is he was Nimble he had great footwork he was powerful he actually had

A really really nice touch around the basket we are going to play through Shaquille O’Neal at times secondly I look at Shaquille O’Neal defensively defensively Shaquille O’Neal would be a drop coverage big meaning he’s not chasing people all over the perimeter he’s going to play that Brook Lopez Rudy

Goar type role defensively where he’s in the paint in pick and roll he’s in a drop coverage so I need shooting I need perimeter Defenders and I need to figure out who the other front Court player who the fourman is that I pair with Shaquille O’Neal I’m going to start with

The greatest shooter of all time I’m going to start with Steph Curry Steph Curry and Shaquille O’Neal two-man action pick and rolls dribble handoffs pin Downs sha to Steph I like this Steph Curry is also making 51 million so I’ve just blown through $102 million of my budget I’ve

Got to make some choices here my next build-around player is going to be low marinan Lowry marinan is one of the best catching shoot players in the NBA he’s a guy that can attack Closeouts he’s a guy that can move without the basketball and he’s an excellent rebounder for his

Position so so far I’ve got Steph Curry Shaq making $51 million Lowry Markin in this season makes $18 million I’m at roughly $120 million of my $195 million budget all right I need some Wing Defenders all right I also need Wing Defenders that can shoot the basketball

I’m going to start with a Denver Nuggets guard in cavius Caldwell Pope he’s going to be my two cavius cwell Pope makes $14 million he’s having an all defense type season he’s an excellent three-point shooter most importantly I think he’s a guy that stars in his role he’s

Perfectly comfortable being off the ball and a fifth option kcp is making $14 million this year so now I’ve got Steph Casey P Larry marinan and Shaquille O’Neal I need one more Defender I need one more guy that’s gonna Hound the basketball I need a guy who can oscillate between guarding wings and

Guarding bigger players Casey P probably will be hounding the primary ball handler so I need a guy who can shoot threes and guard big wings and you ask why well I need guys who are going to chase and be physical could get rear view contests can guard one on one again

I’ve got Shaq on the backline here I’ve got Shaquille O’Neal on the backline so for my other Wing I’m going to go with Lou Dort Lou Dort is shooting over 40% from three this season and he’s one of the the best Wing defenders in the NBA L

Dort is making 15.2 million my starting lineup with Shaquille O’Neal again based on the players that I I chose last time they’re not available to me is Shaquille O’Neal Lowry marinan Lou Dort cavius Caldwell Pope and Steph Curry between my starting lineup I’m at roughly $150

Million as I move into my rotation I have to be smart I have to be smart I’m looking for a guy on a rookie contract as well here’s how I’m thinking about my bench I want a ball handler to play with Steph Curry so that Steph can play off

The ball and run around I want a big guy who is a screen Setter a highly efficient Rim finisher and another backline Defender so my first two picks for my ninan rotation are going to be tyus Jones and Daniel Gafford tus Jones is making 14 million Daniel Gafford is

Making 12 I’m at rough $176 million all right I also I really want more shooting I really want a dynamic shooter a guy who can play Ghost pick and roll a guy who can spot up uh and a guy who’s making uh a very attractive contract for

Someone who’s against the luxury tax I’m going to go with Trey Murphy Trey Murphy on his rookie deal right now and he’s making $3.5 million I believe that is a steal and I believe he will be a perfect fit around Steph Curry and Shaquille O’Neal so Trey Murphy and to round out

My rotation looking at this roster I love a l Dort I love a kcp I need another agitator I need another tough-minded hard-nosed loose ball guy who can also potentially shoot some threes for me I’m going to go with kenri Williams from the Oklahoma City Thunder who’s making $6 million again my

Starting lineup Shaquille O’Neal low Mar Lou Dort kyp Steph Curry my bench tus Jones Trey Murphy kenrich Williams and Daniel Gafford how do you think this team Stacks up against my build-around Michael Jordan team let me know in the comments this GM thing is easy all right let’s welcome in Josh

Apple bomb Josh how are we today my friend JJ we’re doing great best time of the year Sports betters are excited let the Madness begin my friend indeed indeed uh where do you want to head today what are we talking about yes JJ you and I have been you know talking all

Year long about different markets looking at awards in particular and a lot of these awards they’re really unbal so if we’re looking at it right now joic minus 280 to win MVP he’s become a big favorite most improved player which we highlighted previously Tyrese Maxi he’s

Up to minus 280 six Man of the Year Malik monk has made a huge leap here when banama is a huge favorite for rookie of the year so a lot of these markets are really unbal at this point so I want to get your take on really the

Big one here who’s going to win the NBA championship we have some updated odds right now we’re at the tail end of the year before you know we’re going to have the playoffs here the playin games it’s all going to get started but here are

The updated odds and I want to ask you about your opinion between holding a Celtics Futures ticket right now or a nuggets Futures ticket and which one you would rather have in your in your pocket but right now the Celtics as we all know having an incredible year they’re the

Favorite to win the NBA title they’re plus 210 the nuggets are right behind them at plus 320 then we have the Clippers plus 600 the bucks plus 700 and then no other team is really close to that uh the next uh best odds would be

Suns at 20 to1 and then OKC at uh plus 2200 so I want to get your take on one JJ how good are the Boston Celtics are is this a team that finally this year and we heard LeBron actually talking with you about how you know Jason Tatum

At his age he’s accomplished so much he’s been a winner but I can just tell you as a diard Celtics fan and I’m in Boston you know it’s all great but can you win the big game that’s what has eluded the Celtics uh thus far uh since they’ve been a really good team

But haven’t gotten over the hump but they’re 54 and4 uh they’re 6 and a half games above uh the next best record which would be the Nuggets they’re number one in point differential number one offensive efficiency number three defensive efficiency but here’s the little nugget here JJ they’re 0 and2

Against the Nuggets this year they lost at home 102 to 100 they lost on the road 115 to 109 and if you watch those games the Celtics really got bogged down uh if it’s a lower scoring defensive game that was really playing to the benefit of the

Nuggets so I want to get your take and for everyone you know listening and watching the Pod you know is it just hey Celtics are great this is their year take that plus 210 or is it hey Celtics you’re you’re a great regular season team but you haven’t proven it to me in

The finals JJ is there value to take the nuggets at plus 320 at a better payout to win the title again this year I would say this these two teams to me feel like they are on a collision course to meet in the NBA finals they

Have the two best records in the NBA after the All-Star break uh both playing excellent basketball I I think if you look at the two games that were played earlier this season it felt like a playoff game and maybe that’s part of the reason it felt like the Celtics got bogged down a

Little bit um where I think there’s an advantage to sort of if you’re if you’re a Boston Celtics fan I guess or if you’re thinking is this year going to be different for the Boston Celtics my argument here of why it could be different is simply that this is a

Different team this is a different team than the team that has been to the Conference Finals four times this is a different team than the team that lost to the Golden State Warriors in 22 that lost to the Miami Heaton game seven last year porzingis and Holiday of course we

Know about their additions and what that has done for this team porzingis in particular has punished mismatches he has spread the floor it’s given them just a different layer to their offense that I think was missing at times the two-man game with Jaylen Brown you look

At all the indications right now for the Boston Celtics Jason Tatum since the uh turn of the year has shot over 40% on pull-up jumpers after struggling for about a season and a half on those shots he’s shooting 44 % over his last 10 games on on pull-up threes Jaylen Brown

Is playing probably as well as he’s played in his career since the All-Star break both those guys by the way career high and assist to turnover ratio so a lot of the sort of knock against them uh that’s been mitigated and then the other piece to all of this is Derek white

Because Derek white has taken on a bigger role a in my opinion a starring role since the departure of Marcus Smart this is a different team so if you’re making a a bet on the Celtics or against the Celtics I just want that caveat out there don’t go on past performance don’t

Go on what happened against the Miami Heat don’t go on what happened against the Golden State Warriors this is a different team with different Personnel your two best players have gotten better Derek white has moved into a bigger role and you’ve added Drew holiday and uh christops porzingis on top of that the

Question marks about their bench Al Horford for his uh age and his uh role on this team I think has had a fantastic season Payton Pritchard and Sam Hower have both been excellent Off the Bench as well so this is a complete roster and they truthfully have been the best team

In basketball however as we said the Denver Nuggets have beat them twice and Denver I said this out today on first take they are in Championship form right now uh Nicole yic sent a text message to his teammates Michael Malone totalist over All-Star break hey guys we got to

Come back after All-Star break with Focus blah blah blah and they have just completely jelled at the right time and it’s a little bit of a jux position from what we saw last year this time of year when they basically secured the number one seed with a few weeks to go and

Didn’t play well down the stretch they were 12 and 11 after the All-Star break this is a team that is peing and jelling and playing with a purpose they can smell it that second Championship Josh they see it they see it so look I I’m not going to steer anybody one way I

Would just say I feel confident as an analyst in saying these are the two best teams in basketball and it feels likely likely that they will play each other in the championship however uh I love Oklahoma City and I also think the Milwaukee Bucks if anyone in the east

Can beat the Boston Celtics it’s a healthy Milwaukee Bucks team Damen Lillard in a playoff series going crazy for four games Giannis doing Giannis things he’s the first player in NBA history to ever average 310 and5 on 60% shooting after averaging 301 and5 last year but slightly under 60% so you’ve

Got really star power there driving that team forward in the Western Conference uh you know the Clippers not playing well and and they they the the betting markets I guess still have favor them over some of the other Western Conference teams but Oklahoma City to me is a great basketball team they’ve been

Top five uh most of the year in offense and defensive rating I think you have to have that balance between your offense and defense uh I believe there’s four teams this season that have both a top 10 offense offense and defense as of this recording and the Oklahoma City

Thunder are one of them the other team by the way uh besides the nuggets and the Celtics is the New Orleans Pelicans there’s one for you how about that they’re playing great basketball 16-5 over the last 21 I think in the Western Conference again if you’re looking for a

Value play uh maybe the youth doesn’t matter for the Oklahoma City Thunder because I do believe they’re that good of a basketball team yeah you raised some really good points here JJ and I think we can you know we started this conversation talking about odds to Wi the championship but remember there’s other

Markets here like to put it into perspective some of the things you were saying odds to the Western Conference versus Odds to Inn the Eastern Conference and I think this speaks to your point like if you’re excited about the Celtics you you expect them to get

To the finals who knows it’ll be a great you know grueling Series against the Nuggets but if you just want to play them to win the East Celtics right now are minus 115 so they’re a minus number it’s not often you get a team that’s laying a minus number to win their their

Conference someone could say hey I want some plus money you could also say hey that’s a pretty cheap price and a minus number to win their conference but to your point if you look at West it is more competitive now the nuggets are the favorite to win the West they’re plus

160 but to your point Clippers plus 295 second best odds to win the West OKC plus 850 Phoenix plus a th000 and you mentioned kind of the Clippers and and I’m with you you know really we thought hey is it is it going to mesh with all

These bigname players how are they going to play together then they got you know caught fire and were fantastic now they’ve dipped off a little bit here but I think you made a good point in terms of the betting Market they’re still respecting the talent on that team when

You see that number Clipper second best odds to win the West plus 295 you know that’s basically in my opinion the oddsmaker saying hey maybe they don’t look great right now but if that Talent can click at the right time you got to respect you know the great players that

They can put on the court all at once and they and they have clicked for an extended period of time this season where they looked like a true Championship Contender and having lived through 15 years of the NBA I I I think it’s common place for teams to have es

And flows throughout the season where you’re playing great basketball and you’re winning games and then you’re playing okay and you’re a little up and down as the Clippers are right now I know you have an interesting uh prop or team bet on the uh Central Division what

Is that one yeah so here’s another prop I I’d love to get your take on JJ when we go to the central because we you know we’ve talked quite a bit about here the Bucks and I’m with you you know bucks plus 700 that doesn’t sound like a bad

Price to you know get to the finals and win it all but in particular a lot of these division odds you know quite a few of them are un ible just because you know teams have huge leads and it’s basically going to happen so there’s not

Much of a reason for the books to post these numbers but I did stumble on something when it comes to the central and in terms of the Bucks they are a favorite here to win the central at minus 300 so I’m not that intrigued by

The Bucks like even if they win it you kind of have to lay a big minus number where the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze at that price but I wanted your take JJ on the Cleveland Cavaliers because the Cavaliers have the second best odds to win this division they’re

Plus 230 now no one else is close Pacers Bulls I mean they’re not even in the conversation they’re like 50 to one but in particular when it comes to the Cavs they’re only one game back of the Bucks I know the Cavs you know Mitchell’s gotten banged up here but Giannis has

Had some issues I know Middleton just came back but my question to you is can the Cavs catch the Bucks like that Cavs plus 230 is intriguing to me I know the season is coming to an end here but if you look at the remaining strength of schedule the Cavs technically play an

Easier schedule their opponents have a 486 win percentage the rest of the way versus the Milwaukee Bucks who have kind of a tough schedule their opponents are a 541 win percentage so your take on the cabs just in terms of you know how deep can they go on the postseason if they’re

Healthy and things are looking good and is there an opportunity for the cabs to win this division or do you think the Bucks are minus 300 for a reason yeah I think there’s a difference uh Josh for me in prognosticating the playoffs versus how a team finishes the regular

Season uh as it relates to this um I think the Bucks have a better chance of getting to the finals than the Cleveland Cavaliers however we have I think at two different times now sort of written off the Cleveland Cavaliers and they have this resiliency about this group JB

Bicker staff has had an outstanding season uh in terms of his coaching getting Buy in oscillating between playing different ways and playing different lineups I think he’s just been fantastic so I wouldn’t count the Bucks out in the Central Division you bring up the strength of schedule and I just one

Thing to note and it’ll get us into our our third topic here one thing to note is that towards the end of the season you know as guys reach these thresholds of 65 games played as teams that are out of the playoff picture uh you know shut down guys that have a

Nagging ankle injury or nagging hamstring injury there’s a lot of random stuff that happens and so if the bucks as you said are playing a strength of schedule where they’re playing more teams that seeding matters and wins matter right now versus the Cavs who are potentially playing teams that it

Doesn’t matter as much uh that could create a scenario where the Cavs end up catching the Bucks and and win the Central Division yeah to me really it’s it’s a Cavs or nothing Play Just based upon the price there and uh the last topic I want to throw you JJ you kind of

Hinted at it you know we’re talking a lot about affirmative positive things who are the best teams well let’s go to the other end of the spectrum and sadly talk about some of the worst teams in the NBA but there is a very interesting prop on the draftking sports book right

Now who will finish the season with the fewest regular season wins now you and I did a pod I don’t know two months ago I remember at the time I want to say the Pistons what do they lose 28 30 in a row whatever that crazy number was there was

A prop bet on their adjusted win total of nine and a half which you were right you mentioned going over that number and they have gone over that number but right now uh who will have the worst regular season record the fewest wins the Wizards are the favorite minus 210

Pistons are right behind him plus 165 you know Spurs they’re they’ve been bad too but they’re kind of out of that conversation uh they’re up to 15 wins at this point but the whiz are 11 and 58 uh versus the Pistons who are 12 and 56 now

The Wizards would technically have a one and a half game lead which with only 13 14 games left you would think the Wizards you know would would probably you know achieve this award or this you know uh I don’t know if it’s an award you want to call it that an award call

It an award the least the least reg wi Here regular season wins uh but do you agree with that is this a play where you do think the Wizards will end up with the worst record how do you think the coaching staff will handle these guys is

One team more incentivized to win some games than the other and the other thing is you know even though you know we don’t know who’s going to win you know the the ping-pong balls here and get the number one pick they’re pretty much sneck and neck where the way the

Pingpong balls are gonna are going to go I think it’s plus 550 both the Pistons and the Wizards to get that top pick but JJ are the Wizards the worst team in the NBA and are they going to finish with the lowest number of wins it’s interesting because by the way I think

It’s the top three teams now all have the same or the bottom three teams now all have the same odds in terms of getting the number one pick so that was changed a few years ago um that’s why those odds are the same so here’s I I’ll say two things on this

Number one by the standards set earlier in the season the Pistons are playing great basketball you know what I mean playing great basketball yeah they’re they’re they’re they’re actually playing well by the standard set beginning of the year I’m going to go back to what I said about the Cavs and their strength

And schedule remaining this time of year there’s just a lot of random noise and honestly Josh this is something that I wouldn’t touch that that is something I I this to me is such a tossup because of the randomness of the end of the regular season that’s how I feel about

It yeah I think to your point too because you know to me it’s like yeah Wizards would probably get it but you’re laying a big minus number and then it’s also like you raised a good point about the pingpong balls and you’re totally right the Spurs are right there with

Them at plus 550 but you know it’s not like the NFL draft like I’m a Patriots fan I wanted them to lose those games down the stretch to get a better pick NBA Adam Silver to his credit wants to make it more competitive get rid of these games that the team’s you know

Quote unquote tank um but to your point you know whether you’re worst or second worst you’re going to get the same odds to get that one overall pick so uh probably the smarter way that you’re looking at it by avoiding this one entirely but I think it just speaks to

You know what A bad year the Wizards have had we’re all focusing on the Pistons being terrible really the Wizards uh they’re they’re they’re probably going to win this thing but again it’s uh it’s dicey to bet such an unpredictable outcome Josh always fun to chop it up with you we appreciate it

This has been Josh applebomb thank you man thank JJ this has been another episode of islands in the league presented by draftking Sportsbook as always thank you for Watching

Welcome to another episode of Islands in the League. In this episode, JJ Redick talks about the role of “luck” in a given NBA Championship. Like, were the Milwaukee Bucks lucky? Was LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers lucky in the bubble? Let’s talk about it. Then we do another “build around” segment featuring Shaquille O’Neal aka SHAQ. And finally we talk home stretch odds with Josh Appelbaum. Let’s go!

Subscribe to The Old Man and The Three podcast w/ JJ Redick (ESPN / First Take) and Tommy Alter YouTube channel today for more NBA analysis, player interviews and highlights.