Welcome to Part 4 of the pre-draft deadline Bruce Brown breakdown. If you missed the previous parts then feel free to check them out below:
Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

For part 4, we're taking a look at a team that may come as a surprise for a team potentially looking at salary relief.

Portland Trailblazers

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Most likely player(s): Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Deandre Ayton

Incoming salary: Ranges from $34-34.9 million if assuming Brogdon + Williams are compiled; net increase of +$11 million to +$11.9 million

Pick(s) available: 14th pick (1st), 34th (2nd), 40th (2nd), future Bucks 1st

One of the later names to crop up as far as salary selling teams, Portland, simply put, has too much money on the books despite being in a rebuild, not to mention they're entering a roster crunch as they have 4 picks in this draft. Granted, 2 of them are second rounders and thus aren't guaranteed a contract but burning said seconds for the sake of it is terrible asset management when those 2 are in the top 10 of the 2nd round.

Between their current salary, the expected draft picks' guaranteed rookie contracts if selecting 7th and 14th, they're looking at crossing in to luxury tax territory in this very offseason.

They won 21 games this season, for those who weren't aware.

The team that won 21 games this season, the worst record in the West, could be crossing the first tax apron solely through its draft picks & general salary increased from the players under contract.

You can see why they're looking to cut spending given the lack of success and how early they are in to a rebuild. The tricky part is who one could consider since there's a fair amount of players making a lot of money and very few options for aggregation.

While 2023's 6th Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon might seem like the most obvious candidate since he's frequently injured, the Trailblazers value his veteran presence and hope they'll be able to have a "Rocket-like rebound" going in to the next season, with Malcolm playing a key part in Portland's second year in the Scoot/Simons/Sharpe era. He's making less than Brown is, so they'd technically be paying more were they to make that swap before accounting for the difference in rookie salaries were the Raptors to trade up from their current pick to 14th. Additionally, Brogdon has been linked to several playoff teams who have interest in trading for him should Portland change their mind though it is worth noting that most playoff teams lack the cap space to absorb his salary outright and thus a Brogdon trade alone likely wouldn't bring the Blazers under the apron.

The same applies for Jerami Grant, albeit there are different reasons beyond the issues with getting under the tax apron via a playoff team with no cap space to spare. Grant is in that coveted 3 & D wing archetype and despite being 30 years old and having one of the most egregious overpays of the 2023 offseason, Jerami had no shortage of suitors at the deadline – mostly notably the Kings – so it's more likely one would have to give up something of value than acquire him as a buy-low option in a salary dump.

As for Robert "Timelord" Williams, his value is far more dubious due to various injuries that they've struggled with their entire career thought like Brogdon, his $12.4 million salary is in that "not Bruce Brown" territory. I've talked about Timelord in the past as a potential buy-low candidate and much of what was said then still stands…especially the part about him struggling to stay healthy. If he were considered a candidate, it would make more sense in a three-team Boucher swap or using cap space to straight up absorb him than anything related to Brown. While it's worth considering compiling both Williams and Brogdon for roughly $34 million, this is definitely a case where the Trail Blazers would likely get more value out of trading them separately given the aforementioned interest in Malcolm and Williams' value having plummeted after only playing 6 games last season.

If Robert was making more money, he'd be the obvious candidate but he's not. Frankly, it may be better for the Blazers to simply punt moving off of his money closer to next year's deadline in the hopes he can string together a few healthy games and recoup his value because when he does play, he's an impactful defender.

With that being acknowledged…let's talk about Deandre Ayton.

If you know me, you'll know i'm a believer in Ayton despite the constant frustrations that he comes with, of which there are plenty. Games like the double-digit win vs. the Raptors this year, albeit against a shorthanded squad lacking Scottie and Poeltl, best showcase what Ayton can be, as he racked up a 30 point double-double with 19 rebounds.

He's demonstrably a talented center with the length, athleticism and touch to be a dominant force in the paint, and his solid midrange game suggest there's untapped potential for him as a stretch 5 (For context: Ayton's career 3-point percent is low but he almost never takes 3s with an average of 0.1/game) though he's almost never asked to fill in this role, and on the other end of the floor, when he's locked in, he can be a great defender.

That said, there's a reason why he's considered such a frustrating player: Low drive.

Lack of dog.

Does not want it after getting that second contract.

Invisible motor.

Whatever term you want to use to describe the same concept, the fact is that Ayton's ability to motivate himself, to improve and bring his best varies on a night-to-night basis. To put it mildly, it has been a constant problem, both in Phoenix and, thus far, Portland. For every Game 1 in the Conference Finals, there's several games where he's passive, unwilling to absorb contact or in general not looking to score despite the overwhelming force he can be in the paint, and just as many when he's invisible on defense or his impact is minimal.

His tenure in Oregon was noted for "tardiness and tantrums" when it started this season (The excuse being that Ayton was apparently sleeping on an air mattress at the beginning), with a particularly infamous story of him missing a game due to some icy roads of Oregon in the middle of a snow storm. While he did play better to close the season like in that aforementioned Raptors game, managing to average a double-double for the 6th season in a row, it was an overall career-low in points per game this season of 13.8.

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That number requires some context – their established guards in Simons and Brogdon were frequently injured, Scoot was bad at initiating the PnR with Ayton, Chauncey Billups is a bottom 3 coach who doesn't know how to use his big men (He was similarly poor at using Nurkic) – but much like we talked about with John Collins in part 1 of this series, that dip in performance is notable when Deandre had free rein on a rebuilding team. It serves to highlight the discrepancy between what Ayton can do & what he's done thus far when he has what should be the perfect environment for him to live up to his nickname.

Deandre Ayton is making $34 million next year yet he's never made an All-Star team nor does he have any notable accolades to his name despite being paid like one of the best players in the world. No All-NBA nods. No All-Defense. Never been in the running for any of the other major awards (MVP, DPoY, Clutch Player, etc.) for that matter. As much as one can criticize Masai for claiming Poeltl is a Top 10 center in the league, at the very least he isn't paid like one.

Ayton is the 7th highest paid center in the league – and his salary is closer to Bam at 6 than it is Brook Lopez at 8th – but he isn't producing like he's in the tier either player is in.

With the Blazers reported to be disappointed with Deandre's performance this year, a potential salary dump for Ayton is a potential high risk, high reward for a 25-year old (26 in the summer) who fits the timeline for the BBQ retool, but that risk is very notable, not to mention expensive and closer to needing an extension than you'd think.

All that being said, there's 2 big (pun not intended) problems with any sort of Deandre trade beyond his oft-questioned motor.

First, the pick. Even with the Blazers pick dropping all the way to 7, Portland aren't giving up their Top 7 pick for salary relief. Thankfully, they do have a 2nd 1st round pick in this draft, assuming they don't want to part with some potentially valuable Bucks picks that won't convey for several seasons. Now that the Warriors pick has officially conveyed, the Blazers have the 14th pick in the draft and while the drop from 14 to 19 isn't as significant salary-wise (Depending on the rookie scale signing i.e. 80-120%, it can be upwards of $800K in savings; most rookies are signed to the maximum 120%), it does lessen the cap hit that said pick will have on Portland in the near future as well as further out when decisions on Scoot, Sharpe and Simons will need to be made.

They also have two picks that are very early to use on the 2nd night of the draft that could make for an alternative i.e. including the 31st in the draft for 34th & 40th instead of moving up in the 1st round, which could be interesting given the new CBA's 2nd round exception and some of the options expected to go in the 30s or so such as defensive stalwart Ryan Dunn.

Second…look, having over $50 million dedicated to your center rotation in 2024 doesn't make a ton of sense unless you're looking at an MVP candidate like Jokic on a super/max. That's just way too much to invest into that position, especially when your rotation would consist of two starter caliber centers who can't start together i.e. one or the other is overqualified for a backup role off the bench.

If the Raptors did decide to gamble on unlocking Ayton's potential, they have to trade Jakob Poeltl.

I know there's been a lot of talks in favor of trading Jakob of late so i'll try to keep this short: Poeltl can certainly get some value back from a team looking for a starting-caliber 5 – it's not hard to put together a trade for the Grizzlies, Thunder or even the Pelicans (Okay, maybe not New Orleans if i'm remembering their salary on the books, but you get my point) of filler, a pick or two (and by 2 I mean a 1st and a 2nd or such, not 2 firsts), maybe a reclamation project like Ziaire Williams. But beyond the difference in skillset, namely Ayton being a worse passer than Jakob in an average game than Deandre is on his best…let's say that you make a move for Ayton and simultaneously trade Poeltl.

Assuming the Raptors don't draft another big man like Yves Missi or Kel'el Ware – the latter of whom has gotten comparisons to Ayton for a similarly questionable motor, albeit they don't play the same style-wise as Ware is more of a stretch 5 with a far more slender frame – which is entirely reasonable to assume given their purported priorities include filling in the backup point role and need of defensive wings to fill in the O.G.-shaped hole in the starting 5, the absence of Poeltl could exacerbate the risk of trading for Ayton blowing up in their faces. His contract isn't particularly long but it's pricey and another down year could leave Deandre as the latest face of negative trade value contracts, moreso than one could argue he currently is.

Look, i've talked about Ayton quite a bit in prior posts and I doubt this is going to be the piece that convinces anyone that is critical of Ayton. As noted, there's a pretty big reason not to like his production given his most recent season and his sizeable contract. It was an underwhelming debut in what should have been an overall high in Ayton's thus far strange career and it is completely justifiable to want nothing to do with Deandre. Whatever else can be said about Robert Williams availability, he shows up in games when [if] he plays.

All I will say is this: Back in 2022, the Raptors tried to sign & trade for Ayton in the offseason before he got his offer sheet from the Pacers. What that deal would have been, how serious the interest was, why it fell through & whether Toronto is still interested in Dominayton is unknown.

A change of scenery can do wonders for a lot of players. Not for Deandre Ayton, at least thus far.

Conclusion

Here's our TL;DR so far: