NBA Finals: Will Mavericks stay hot vs. Celtics? Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum | Hoops Tonight

NBA Finals: Will Mavericks stay hot vs. Celtics? Luka Doncic vs. Jayson Tatum | Hoops Tonight

all right welome to Hoops tonight here at the volume happy Saturday everybody hope all you guys are having a great start to your weekend as promised yesterday we did the Western Conference Finals kind of Fallout mailbag this episode is going to be all the mailbag questions centered around the NBA final so everything having to do with Boston and Dallas against each other and then tomorrow morning we’ll have one final mailbag that’s going over everything else that’s around the league anything that any question that I received that didn’t have anything to do with Dallas Minnesota or Boston is going to be in tomorrow’s show you guys know the drill before we get started subscribe to our uh to the Hoops andite YouTube channel so you don’t miss any more of our videos follow me on Twitter _ jlt so you guys don’t miss show announcements don’t forget about our podcast feed wherever you get your podcast under Hoops tonight and then keep dropping mailbag questions and those YouTube comments so we can keep hitting them throughout the rest of the postseason all right let’s talk some basketball so question number one why are you picking Boston in the finals let navs are better at playmaking shot making they have the best player in the series and the best duo call coaching BB basketball IQ athleticism size and length chemistry and fit a tie Celtics are better defensively and have more Talent across the roster but Dallas has more depth are you expecting Boston to slow down donic and Irving and their Collective offense to match them have Superstar Duo how would that work so I put this question at the beginning for a specific reason because we’re going to get to a bunch of specific Topics in in the finals today but I haven’t done all my prep yet so a couple things I mentioned on the coward podcast on Monday when he asked me where you leaning and I am leaning Boston before I go into my prep but I haven’t done all my prep yet and so I’m taking the weekend off with my wife I recorded this show on Friday taking the weekend off with my wife decompressing for a little bit Monday morning I’m hitting the film and we’re going to do an entire episode centered around Boston on offense on Monday we’re going to do an entire episode around uh Dallas on offense on Tuesday and then I have two interview style ones with the nerd sesh guys and S Vini for next week that is going to run on Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening flowing into the game one day which is on Thursday right so we’re going to have a lot of film in those two sessions I’m going to give you my actual pick but yeah I’m leaning Boston going in but I don’t know what I’m going to think after I go watch the film it’s very possible that I flip to Dallas we’ll see when we get to that point I’m not actually making my official pick until we get into probably the Tuesday show next week um that also factors in for some of the way I’m answering these questions right now like I’m going to reference some Concepts that we’re going to get into in more detail when we get into the film next week as far as all of the specific details that he mentioned will’ll get into them and some in this mailbag and some of them in the the film sessions next week but I just wanted to reference I haven’t picked anybody yet yes I’m leaning Boston but we’ll see how that uh that kind of shapes out after we go into all of our prep next question hey Jason love the show I’ve been learning a lot from you for over a year now you’re the best analyst I found by far greetings from Brazil thank you for the kind words is porzingis the key for Boston to reduce Dallas’s bigs impact by pulling them out of the paint and will and giving Tatum and brown clear Lanes to the basket I’m a Dallas fan and I’m worried about this Dynamic so what was the biggest lesson we learned from the Minnesota Dallas series it was perfect example of the fact that matchups dictate a lot when it comes to playoff series this is a I had a big rant about this in the mailbag yesterday as it pertains to Dallas fans Dallas fans are the latest in a long line of fans Denver last year the year before that Golden State Milwaukee the Lakers even where there’s this feeling that oh we’re winning now that means we’re invincible and that we’re you know this awesome team that no one’s ever going to stop and there is not a team like that in the league right now the the the last team that we had that was like that was the Golden State Warriors in 2017 2018 I think out of all of the teams that I’ve seen in this last kind of five-year window I think Denver is the most capable of sustained success year in and year out they’ve got this perfectly constructed starting five a really deep uh uh group of starters and then obviously Nicole joic is with Luca right there at the top of the league if not at the very top of the league right but like no one’s invincible and matchups do play a big role and who wins and we just saw a Minnesota team beat my Championship favorite going into the postseason Denver the same Denver team that beat Boston twice that won the championship last year in convincing fashion right that team had a lot of problems with Minnesota right and then that same Minnesota team walked into Dallas and it felt to me like six halves into the or excuse me uh six quarters into the series right around halfway through game two I’m like oh they can’t beat these guys because of the matchup because of the perimeter out athleticism the interior defense piece right and we had a YouTube comment during one of the shows where someone said and I I thought this was uh kind of profound at the time he’s like this is great example of how we can’t look at playoff matchups through the lens of who the best team is in a vacuum we have to look at it in individual matchups and how these basketball teams face up against each other right because I personally would have picked Denver to beat Dallas said they fa in the Conference Finals but they didn’t play each other because Minnesota was a bad matchup for Denver they were able to dispatch of Denver now we have uh Dallas versus Minnesota in the Conference Finals and Dallas wins by the way I think Dallas would have had a chance to beat Denver I would have given them a good chance I just would have leaned slightly towards Denver in that matchup the point is matchups matter so what’s different about this matchup compared to the Minnesota matchup right now uh there’s a in terms of defensive personel the Boston has more good perimeter defenders in terms of like I think they’ four in their starting lineup that are all awesome like Drew holiday’s awesome Jaylen Brown’s awesome Tatum’s awesome Derek white is awesome right Minnesota has really good perimeter Defenders especially in Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels right but like the other guys that they had that are good perimeter Defenders come off the bench they have some offensive limitations right so like I think Boston’s perimeter defensive Personnel is at a similar level to Minnesota if not a little deeper right but the reality is is none of them are big enough really to hang with with Luca except for Jason Tatum right so that’s an interesting matchup piece we’re going to look at we’re going to go into a bunch of different matchup pieces over the course of this this mailbag but I want to zero in on one specific matchup and that’s the porzingis and Horford matchup right so if we look at Minnesota they are uh they played Rudy goar the majority of the minute so they had shooting big lineups or they’d have a shooting big at the center but this is going to be very different in the in the sense that you’re going to face 48 minutes of a shooting center the entire series it’s going to be porzingis for probably right around you know 27 28 minutes and it’s going to be Horford the remaining minutes right so you’re going to face shooting bigs the entire series and they are going to pick and pop that’s what they do they are a pick and pop keep the floor spaced type of team and so if you run a deep drop coverage or even a high drop coverage like Dallas did for the most part against Minnesota you’re going to leave some guys open the schematically we’ve talked this through before if in a drop coverage the guard is chasing over the top so the offensive player going downhill the guard’s chasing over the top trying to apply back pressure right you’re trying to funnel them into your screen Defender that’s waiting he’s either up at the level or he’s a little bit further back but he’s waiting on the other side of that screen what if the guy who sets a screen instead of rolling into that same vicinity Pops to the three-point line if he pops to the three-point line he’s going to be open he’s going to be open unless you rotate from the weak side which is going to cause other problems on the weak side of your defense right so that is a a very unique piece in this series from a matchup standpoint that’s very different than what we saw from Minnesota again Minnesota had shooting bigs but they did not lean into that for large portions of the series right this is where I think Maxi kba and him being back in the lineup is an interesting kind of matchup piece for uh for Dallas I think that we could end up seeing more of the kba Lively Duo than we see of the Lively Gafford duo in this series because Gafford while he’s an awesome uh while he’s an awesome rim protector and his Rim protection was very valuable against Minnesota Lively is better on the perimeter and kba is better on the perimeter and so I think what’ll end up happening a lot in this series is Dallas is going to have to do some switching they’re going to have to have lineups out there with kba PJ Washington or Lively PJ PJ Washington with drick Jones Jr obviously kyre and guard on the perimeter as well and they’re going to have to do more switching in those ball screens my guess is that’s not how it’ll start they’ll start in their drop and they’ll leave porzingis open to start the series and basically they’re going to be like let’s see if he hits him in my experience watching the NBA every single team basically concedes the pick in pop three until it becomes a problem doesn’t matter if it’s Miles Turner doesn’t matter if it was Anthony Davis back in 2020 when he could shoot doesn’t matter if it’s Nicole yic Nicole yic got left open on pick and Pops in the Minnesota series right like it doesn’t matter who it is most teams will favor the ball handler in a pick and pop and leave the popping big open until he starts making shots once he starts making shots that’s when you’ll see kind of like what Boston did in the last round well they’ll switch Tatum onto Miles Turner right that’s that’s what I expect Dallas to do I think they’ll start in a drop coverage and concede shots to porzingis but eventually porzingis if he starts hitting and I mean like over 40% if poringa starts hitting that’s when they’ll start switching and that’s when I think we’ll see a lot more lively a lot more kba because kba can guard on the perimeter Lively can guard on the perimeter and whoever the primary round ball guy is Derrick Jones Jr they’re going to have him Sprint back out to christops porzingis or Sprint back out to Al Horford now porzingis presents another issue in the sense that he’s a switch beater he will take you down to the post and try to attack your guard in an isolation situation there however that is something that is easier to handle as a team than a wide openen three so for instance if porzingis is hitting 40% of his pick in pop threes that comes out to 1.2 points per possession so if you’re giving up five of those a game you can safely assume you’re going to um uh you’re going to give up 1.2 POS points per possession for those five possessions right what does that come out to like seven points or something like that right so like you that’s that’s what you can count on for those five possessions but if he goes down to the post it’s more possible if you can offer backside help rotate out of it maybe you can hold him below a point point of 1.2 points per possession right so like those are the types of decision M decisions that the staff has to make what are we willing to concede and again I believe they’ll start by conceding the pick and pop but if porzingis starts hitting half of them that’s when they’ll probably start switching and try to make porzingis beat post mismatches down low now we’re going to get into more of the other matchup examples both in this mailbag and when we get into the film session next week but throw everything out everything you saw about Boston in the first three rounds everything you saw about Dallas in the first three rounds throw it all out it’s all about this matchup and how these guys line up and yes this is a fundamentally very different offensive attack from Boston then Minnesota and it will challenge Dallas’s defense in a different way in the same way that Minnesota’s defense was constructed to deal with Denver’s interior size and passing and they locked up Denver but they had very little success slowing down Dallas Dallas had a 118 and change offensive rating against Minnesota because they were a bad matchup for Dallas’s offense right we have to throw all that out and zoom in on just this particular series better Duo Jason Tatum and Jaylen brown or Luca and Kyrie Irving this is a tough one to me and I think it’s very close to make it on a very simple level I believe Jaylen Brown is a bit better than Kyrie Irving uh Jaylen Brown’s a much better defensive player but Kyrie is a good defensive player I think Kyrie is a better offensive player but Jaylen Brown is a very good offensive player right so I think Jaylen Brown Jaylen Brown we’ll see when we get into the player rankings but I think Jaylen Brown’s right around the 15th best player in the world right now and Kyrie Irving is somewhere in that like 17 to 22 type of range right probably a little high I I think Kyrie’s gained some ground in my book so like I I would argue that like we’ll see when we get into the offseason but I’d put Kyrie closer to the 17 side of that you know he’s having an amazing off offensive postseason run don’t look at the box score numbers either it’s about timely scoring like Kyrie has been passive in a lot of games as Lucas run the show and then taken over late that’s obviously going to manifest in lower box score numbers it’s kind of like Jaylen Brown he averag what 23 points a game this regular season he’s capable of averaging 2728 on a good team if he’s the number one option right so like everything is in context of their team situations but I do think Jaylen Brown’s a little better than Kyrie Irving but I think LCA donic is a little better than Jason Tatum I think Luka donic is a Bonafide top tier Superstar I think Tatum is like near the top of the next tier of players and so from there why I lean towards Luca and Kyrie as a Duo is the fact that I think having the best player in the series is a real advantage and I do think Luca is a better basketball player than Jason Tatum and so I do think Dallas has a better Duo but that doesn’t matter because the next three guys that you’re going to name are all going to be Celtics it’s going to be Derek white porzingis and uh and Drew holiday if you’re ranking players in the series and so I don’t think it really matters much in this series but I do think Luca and Kyrie are the better Duo I’d argue it’s actually more important just to focus on Luca and Tatum LCA being better than Tatum is a more point is a bigger point of optimism for Dallas we’re this close to crowning a new NBA champ and with the action heating up on the court it’s even hotter at draftking Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NBA there’s only so many games left and draftking Sportsbook has you covered with same game parlays live betting odds boost and so much more don’t miss out or 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you from every angle whereas Minnesota has a bunch of play finishers on the floor right like ant can run action cat can run action Conley can run action but ideally you don’t want to run a ton through him but it’s like goar is strictly a play finisher and a bad one at that and Jen McDaniels is mostly just a play finisher and he’s not that great at it right this Boston team everyone is both a play finisher and a offensive initiator in their own way and so they can Target entry points easier than Minnesota could so like Minnesota had a hard time attacking Luca because even when Luca would get on a switch they just load up behind him by ignoring Rudy goar and it would just be gaford or Lively waiting under the rim if ant did manage to beat Luca off the dribble which allowed Luca to press up on and take away the pull-up jumper right this series is going to be different in the sense that luk is going to have to guard one of those guys we’ll talk about the matchups later but like it’s it’s very possible that he ends up on a Jaylen brown or on a Drew holiday and like you will see Boston will just give the let’s say he’s on Drew holiday they’ll just give the ball to Drew and they’ll start running action and they’ll start looking to attack and like let’s say they bring Tatum into the action and Luca just switches and allows you know Derrick Jones Jr or PJ Washington to guard Drew holiday they’re throwing the ball right to Tatum on Luca and it’s not going to be Gafford or Lively parked in the paint on the backline it’s going to be poringa spacing to the left to the opposite Wing or to the opposite corner and so like I do think and by the way we saw this like one of the things I thought was really interesting about the Pacers series Boston was relentless attacking halberton it was like every time down the floor and so that I think is a big matchup difference in this series especially from a fatigue standpoint Luca got to do a lot of standing around against Minnesota on the defensive end of the floor he obviously did his job in that position but he didn’t have to engage himself as much defensively Boston is going to make Luca work he’s an entry point Kyrie Irving for all of his gifts has a size issue so I think that teams will look to attack him I say teams Boston I think Boston will look to attack him as well but Luca and Kyrie being forced to guard the ball against Boston is going to be a very different type of dynamic than the last series on the opposite end of the floor I think that Luca is going to like they’re might put Tatum Boston will inevitably at some point in the series put Tatum on the ball screen big to try to shut down ball screen actions but it’s it’s just going to be the and I actually think we’ll see less of that because they’re not a pick and pop team you might see that a little bit with kba but I I doubt we’ll see too much of it because they’re a pick and roll team more than a pick and pop team right but even if Tatum even if they move guys around they Luca will find whoever porzingis is guarding even if it ends up being Derrick Jones Jr if Boston puts porzingis on Derrick Jones Jr Luca will bring him up into the ball screen and he will look to attack the exact same way that he attacks in these other ball screen actions specifically one of the things I’ve noticed on film The the size is an issue for Boston Luca is too big for most of their guys but I do think that uh uh that they have a unique weapon in Jason Tatum to unleash on Luca that most teams in the league don’t have which is a really big strong forward that can actually match Luca’s physicality that said Boston’s entry points are going to be Derrik white and Drew holiday Boston does a lot of switching especially on guard guard actions my guess is Luc is going to do a lot of dribbling the ball at the floor calling for a guard guard screen to get either Derek white or Drew holiday switched onto him and then put them in jail trap them on his backside methodically work down the lane try to bait the rim protector one way or another and either shoot or pass out of there so like again I think the pressure points or entry points for both defenses will be for Dallas it’s going to be Luca and Kyrie just getting attacked on the ball by Boston and on the other end of the floor it’s going to be the smaller perimeter players I think struggling to handle Luca’s size and strength hey Jason as you’ve spoken about on the show one of the Mavs key attributes that has led to their finals performance is his Rim protection one thing we haven’t talked much about however is their perimeter defense which ranks among the bottom in the League this season although this wasn’t a factor in the Minnesota series due to Minnesota not being a very good perimeter offense or jump shooting team in general do you expect this to be a factor in how the finals goes when considering Boston’s Elite perimeter players and Derrik white Jason Tatum Etc love the vids uh a couple things first of all I do think Dallas has good perimeter defense I think that they did demonstrate that over the tail end of the season this Dallas team do you remember how all year long I kept talking about the mediocre teams and that was like Dallas the Lakers the Bucks uh you know the Warriors the um like like all those teams that were like kind of beneath the top tier I said consistently the same thing they need like a 15 to 20 game stretch sometime before the end of the season where they build the habits they need for the postseason I kept referring to that constantly with all of those teams Dallas did that Dallas over the tail end of the season sharpened up their defense that’s what they did they it was like a it’s almost like a little mini training camp post trade deadline where they got all that together and they’re carrying that into the postseason I think Derrick Jones Jr has been one of the best perimeter defenders in this postseason run PJ Washington has had his moments he’s better on pull-up Shooters than he is on drivers uh can is a little bit slow of foot laterally sometimes but PJ Washington can defend on the perimeter Josh Green can defend on the perimeter and Kyrie Irving when he’s locked in is an above average perimeter defender in my opinion I thought he had some good reps on Anthony Edwards last night so like I actually think they’re a good perimeter defense team however you’re right about Boston’s Elite perimeter players in the sense that it stretches your perimeter defense so if you use Derrick Jones Jr let’s say you use Derrick Jones Jr on Jaylen brown or Dereck white let’s just say I I think they’ll probably use him on Derrick White we’ll see if they use Derrick Jones Jun on Derrik white and they use PJ Washington on Jason Tatum and they use Kyrie Irving on Jaylen Brown that means that Drew holiday is gonna be guarded by Luka donic and again Jaylen Brown’s gonna have a massive size advantage against Kyrie and we know how he likes to attack in the post which may cause them to switch that and Kyrie will be on Derek white but like regardless of how those matchups work out Boston just stretches your perimeter defense just because you need four good perimeter Defenders to handle their perimeter threats even with Lively going down and coming back do you think bringing in Maxi kba into an obviously working Dallas starting rotation in the Celtics series could be a mistake as he’s also a defense and rebounding liability in comparison and coming back from an injury first of all I think Maxi C is a good Defender uh I think he’s proven that over the last three years or so um I think that he also because of his ability to switch onto perimeter players makes him uniquely valuable in a series like this against Boston I think they have to play him I think they have to play him a lot I think it’s actually more likely that you see a guy like Gafford get his minutes cut in a series like this next question looking at this MAV Celtics finals one interesting Dynamic is the personal motivators of the Dallas Stars Boston fans hate Kyrie and I’m sure he will be extra motivated to beat this opponent more than any other Luca and chrisop porzingis didn’t work out together and I think Luca could go into the psychopath Tendencies to try to torch him whenever he gets the chance do you take these Dynamics into account when previewing a series I look I do I think Luca’s indomitable personality and his ability to dominate a game is a factor yeah but I don’t think it has anything to do with porzingis like Luca got mad at a fan last night like the competitors like him they don’t need motivation they find motivation it’s not hard for them uh at this point you’re playing in the NBA Finals with a chance to win the title and both teams are legitimately very good I don’t think motivation plays a role at all in this series I think everybody’s motivated by the Larry O’Brien trophy Jason question for the mailbag what’s your take on the national media being seemingly over overly critical and negative on Jason Tatum he has always put up numbers and been the best player on the League’s best team would appreciate your Insight love the work you do so I I’ve seen a lot of this from Boston fans and I really don’t think it’s that complicated I think there’s a basic disconnect between where Boston fans view Jason Tatum and want him to be respected and where most of the fans in the around the league view him so for instance BOS Jason Tatum’s team success has been undeniably impressive I mean the GU this he’s about to make his NBA Finals appearance he’s uh been to the Conference Finals a bunch of times the dude’s played over a 100 playoff games already he’s had a lot of big playoff moments so there’s like a lot like Tatum’s already putting together a pretty long resume of playoff success right but I don’t think he’s one of the top players in the league I think that if you were ranking players you’re putting joic you’re putting Luca you’re putting Giannis and the like there’s there’s like a gap before you get to the next tier now when you get to that next tier the guys like you know Shay gild Alexander the guys like Joel embiid Jason Tatum You could argue Tatum’s at the top of that list and we’ll see how I end up ranking everybody when we get into the offseason but I don’t think Tatum is capable of doing what LCA donic did last night I don’t think Tatum can uh completely mentally and physically dominate an opponent and get them to lose their confidence I don’t think Tatum has the ability to to reach the Heights that the top players in the league can reach right and so the problem there is that that’s where the disconnect is Boston fans desperately want Tatum to be regarded as one of those guys and what they point to are his accomplishments but the rest of the the fans in the league are like he’s not one of those guys and we don’t care about those accomplishments because one the Eastern Conference is super damn weak and two in the time where the boss like in the time since the the Eastern Conference has gotten stronger and I do think in the last few years the Eastern Conference is stronger at the top but in that stretch Tatum has also had by far the most talented roster in the conference and so what that’s done is it’s minimized some of those accomplishments right it’s no different than the LeBron MJ thing LeBron fans are like eight straight finals eight straight finals he’s been to the finals 10 times and like while that is an accomplishment that uh when you factor in the weakness of the Eastern Conference is not going to sway an MJ supporter a a Michael Jordan fan is not going to look at LeBron’s h straight Conference Finals and be like that’s the differentiator they want to see titles and that that’s kind of because the title is is undebatable right and even within the scope of titles every title is weighed differently like LeBron’s title in 2016 with the Cavs is weighed differently than his title in 2020 when he had the best team in the league all season long when Anthony Davis was also playing at a top five level when they dominated everybody and didn’t look threatened at any single point over the course of four rounds of the playoffs so guess what in the court of public opinion the time that he would came back from down 3-1 and had to achieve unbelievable level of play to steal a series against a 73 win team is going to be way differently right that’s the thing Jason Tatum winning the Eastern Conference this year winning 60 whatever games in that weak ass East against the terrible opponents they played in their three playoff rounds is not going to sway the court of public opinion to raise Tatum up to the level with those guys the only thing that is going to raise Tatum up to the level of what Luca and joic and Giannis are regarded at around the league is if he goes toe-to-toe with one of those guys and badly outplays them in a series the last time he had a chance was the uh like last year against Jimmy Butler and he lost the year before against Steph Curry and he lost in the same season against Giannis it was like they were heavily favored going into that series because of the Chris Middleton injury and Giannis out like Tatum had big moments in that series but Giannis dragged that series to seven games and Giannis was the best player in that series and so like that that’s the thing is like they what what they want what what everyone outside of Boston wants to see is Tatum go into this Dallas series and just badly outplay Luca and be the reason why his team wins the title and by the way if he does I think he will get recognition from that group but that’s the disconnect there Celtics fans are like look at the resume and everyone else is like that conference is weak as hell and ever since the conference got a little tougher now you have the most talent in the league you have five $30 million plus players you have four of them actually on those contracts and Derek white is worth Derek White’s worth like 35 million a year and will get that the next time he’s a free agent so like that’s just the reality of the way this stuff works go ask any Kevin Durant fan they’re going to be like why isn’t he regarded as this this and this and everyone says the same thing why would we put Kevin Durant on the level of Stephen LeBron when he won two titles when he jumped on to that Golden State Warriors team that won 73 win 73 games and he’s lost everywhere else like obviously those aren’t going to be regarded the same way like it’s just the reality of the court of public opinion how do I feel about Tatum I think he’s somewhere in that you know fourth to seventh best player in the world I think that he’s perfect for that CTIC roster I think his defensive versatility is one of the most underrated things that we hear about a superstar in the league the dude is just a dominant defensive player that flies completely underneath the radar he’s a great connective star the perfect guy unselfishly to tie all of that Talent together he’s perfect for that Celtics team but he’s not doing especially not in terms of degree of difficulty what Lucas had to do in the west what yic had to do last year in the west what Giannis has had to do in years pass as well Giannis is playing like Giannis was won a title with Drew holiday and with Chris Middleton right like it’s just it’s just a different level of difficulty it’s a different level of challenge for those Stars it’s regarded differently in the court of public opinion and again like I I don’t see that Gap closing Celtics fans are going to continue to want Tatum to get that regard and everyone else is not going to give it to him until he finally uh climbs the mountain top and again like I’ll be I just need to prepare you Celtics fans if Boston wins this series and Tatum averages you know 2610 and five and he shoots 42% from the field and 32% from three it settles for a bunch of bad jump shots and impacts the game still and is a great defender and does all those things but Jaylen Brown plays awesome and Drew holiday plays awesome and chrisop porzingis plays awesome and Derrick White plays awesome and Al Horford plays awes awesome and Pritchard and Hower hit a bunch of threes and Dallas just looks overwhelmed by talent and all of a sudden Tatum’s hoisting the the Bill Russell Finals MVP trophy you guys need to be prepared for the rest of the league to be like yeah it kind of reminds me of when KD won in in 2017 or 2018 right and KD was like actually considered one of the top guys and like he didn’t get credit so like again that’s just the way this all this that’s just the way this all works but if Tatum goes into the series and he guards Luca and shuts him down and averages 30 and shoots 48% from the field and 37% from three and is deeply and profoundly F and all these other facets of the game and the series goes six and Tatum makes a bunch of big plays and then he’s hoisting the Bill Russell trophy everybody in that other Camp is going to be like damn that might be the best player in the world and don’t be surprised if you actually see that group Elevate Tatum to that level but that’s what they want to see they want to see difficulty they want to see Rising against adversity they want to see you going to- to Toe with the best players in the world and beating those dudes the same way that Luca did in the last round to get ant the same way that he did in the previous round against Shay gildas Alexander and the same way he did in the round before that against Paul George and James Harden that’s what people want to see that is what gets regarded in terms of the actual full-blown NBA wide fan base local fan bases all have their different opinions about it right I uh I’m a Lakers fan Lakers fans are a lot higher on Anthony Davis than I am like that’s that’s kind of the way this stuff works right like it is totally normal like Warriors fans still think Steph Curry is the best player in the world every Denver fan has been in my mentions and YouTube comments non-stop complaining about how I have elevated Luca above joic because of what he’s doing in this postseason run because they’re convinced their guy is still the best this is totally normal but if you’re going to win the court of public opinion there has to be this undeniable evidence to win that battle uh one last note on that front though like I do feel bad for Celtics fans in the sense that I do think Tatum has become a bit underrated in the sense that people I think don’t pay enough attention to the good things he does do for that team if Kyrie wins another ring does he surpass guards like Dame Westbrook and Harden not in a vacuum but as a player who contributes to winning basketball so when I look at like number two options who primarily focus on scoring the basketball who helped lead their team to a championship I think guy in recent NBA history I think guys like Paul Pierce in 2008 behind Kevin Garnett who I thought was the best player on that team Jamal Murray for the Denver Nuggets was a good example that Chris Middleton for the bucks like he was the one who hit basically the game winner in that Net series in game seven uh when they went into overtime like those are guys that that kind of focus on shot making to compliment their stars and they LED their teams now if he uh help help their teams win titles now if he does it twice if Kyrie does it twice the next kind of peer that I’d be looking at there for Kyrie is a guy like Tony Parker where it’s like clearly not the best player on his team uh but like a scoring ceiling Razer who works at the guard position and is probably closer to the top of the league Than People realize and by the way before you think Tony Parker is an insult for Kyrie Irving Tony Parker has made second Team all NBA three times Kyrie’s made it once Tony Parker has a finals MVP so like that’s not an insult that is a compliment I think Kyrie Irving enters into that Tony Parker layer of like secondary scoring guard that just helps lift a championship team to that level respect your work Jason my question is do you see the Celtics mixing in different coverages to throw at to throw Luca off like a box in one or zones or do you see them staying home and trying to make and making him try to beat single coverage and eliminating the other players I think we’ll see a bunch of different coverages I think we’ll see some blitzing especially on nights when Luca’s got it going I think we’ll see a lot of drop coverage and I think we’ll see a lot of switching too I think we’ll see a lot of like trying to force Luca to score on an island I think we’re going to see everything and again when it comes down to these types of situations trying to slow down a superstar it’s all about that variety and mixing up coverages and trying to keep the offensive player off balance Jason are we underestimating the Boston defense a bit I think holiday is as strong as Dort will give Lucas Luca an issue Derek white is going to absolutely swallow up each of Kyrie’s shots first of all I I do think we underrate Boston’s defense I think that they’ve demonstrated especially in clutch time this postseason run that when those four guys Brown Tatum white and in holiday when they all really lock in on defense I think that they can be frightening on the perimeter right uh that said I do not think Drew holiday is as big and strong as Lou Dort I think that uh like Lou Dort brings like another level of physicality that Drew can’t match and just in terms of his size I don’t think he’s going to give Luca as many issues as ludor did and Derek White’s an awesome guard Defender but no one’s swallowing up each of Kyrie’s shots like have have some respect for your opponent here like Luca and Kyrie are really really good that said I do believe that Boston is capable of being a better defensive team than Dallas and I think that we’ll see some crazy defensive punches from Boston in this series hello Jason I have a question about Dallas defending Boston with porzingis Lively had some problems with him in the one time porzingis played in this matchup I just feel like this is a potentially bad match up for Dallas how does Dallas try to counter it uh if it proves to be problem early in the series if it proves to be a problem early in the series thanks love the show uh couple things we talked a little bit more about that pick and pop piece earlier in the show so I won’t get into that again I am excited to look at the um the film and see what you’re referencing in terms of porzingis in Lively’s individual matchup but like again I think I think it comes down to them running drop until porzingis starts making shots and then switching if porzingis starts hitting at that point Jason said Luca is going to be the best player in the MAV Celtics series is Kyrie the second best player is Kyrie the second best player in that series no Jason Tatum is again like I think I think we’re I think I think the NBA fan base at large underrates Tatum a little bit I think he’s a lot closer to Luca’s level than people think what will it take for you to admit that Jason Tatum is a better player than Luka donic I understand that LCA has better stats and is a better passer than Tatum but Tatum has a much lower usage rate due to Boston’s stacked roster Tatum is bigger faster longer stronger and a better athlete and a much better defensive player A better jump shot in my opinion a very underrated passer no holes in his game it’s Etc he also tends to outplay Luca whenever they play head-to-head and Boston has won the last four meetings if Jason Tatum outplays Luca and Boston wins comfortably in five or six games will you finally admit that you’ve had Tatum too low in your player rankings and that he’s a better player than Luka donic this mailbag question is a perfect example of what I was talking about earlier that’s how most Boston fans view Tatum and so that’s the disconnect they view him as better than than Luca and better than the guys at the top of the league and outside of Boston people don’t feel that way they view him in the tier below that right couple things uh I do agree that Luca has the ability I’m going to take it to the front portion of this question what will it take for you to admit that Jason Tatum is a better player than Luka donic guard him in the series you’re going to need to guard him in the series lock him up and do everything you can to help your offense score on the other end of the floor be the better two-way player and lift your team to win the title it’s literally that simple but if you if he doesn’t take the Luca assignment and Luca shreds them but Boston just wins because they’re more talented like that question that Boston’s won the last four meetings Boston’s the best team Boston has the most talent in the league by far so like they should win most of the time they should win the title this year they’re minus 220 favorite in the series Tatum’s not viewed as a minus 220 better player than Luka donic that’s the roster the roster is what’s dictating that as far as the in specifics is Tatum bigger uh in terms of like overall physicality it’s closer than you think I’d probably give the the the the uh slight Edge to Luca Tatum faster yes Tatum longer yes Tatum stronger Tatum’s leaner but like more like uh defined muscle but luuk is a big strong uh a better athlete definitely Tatum much better defensive player definitely Tatum better jump shot absolutely not Tatum’s jumper is very inconsistent Lucas is more like Luca hasn’t shot particularly well in this postseason run up in until the last round but from October to now Luca’s been a better shooter um very underrated passer you’re right Tatum’s an underrated passer I think he’s one of the best passers of all the forwards in the league Luca might be the best passer in the league that’s just a it’s a different level uh no holes in his game totally disagree I think Tatum in slow down half court environments can struggle sometimes he’s better at it than he used to be he’s better at than a lot of people think he is but he is not the same level of half court initiator as Luka donic so again in in terms of it has to be Tatum badly outplaying Luca and his team winning it can’t just be the team wins but Tatum and Luca just kind of play each other to a draw at that point I think Lucas just accomplished more in this playoff run in terms of degree of difficulty and what his team has needed him to do to win uh but that I’m not going to write that off like I it’s very possible that two weeks from now we’re talking about Tatum as the best player in the world I’m not I’m not saying he can’t do it I’m saying I just don’t think he’s going to do it I I think it’s more I think the most likely scenario in this series is that Boston wins and Tatum looks more or less like he’s looked through the other three rounds of the postseason like just another really good player in the NBA do you think that Tatum has the ability to lock up or at least make life difficult for Luca to play well in this series I personally think that he can and will sacrifice his offensive production to do so leaving the rest of the Celtics to pick up the slack offensively do you think that Dallas has the Personnel to guard the rest of the Celtics starters effectively so this would be the worst case scenario for Tatum in whatever sort of public opinion sort of thing because the public is so focused on box score numbers but that is Boston’s best Pathway to Victory if Tatum goes into the series from the jump and says I am guarding Luka donic the entirety of the series everyone else I will spot up in the corner and run second side action whenever I have the legs for it but you guys are on the offense I’m going to focus on Tatum if Boston did that I’d feel pretty strongly that Boston’s going to win this series it’s just unlikely to me that they do that uh I hope I I think that if they find themselves in some trouble like if Dallas is up 2-1 in the series I think we’ll see a lot more Tatum on Luca especially if they’re struggling to guard him but like that to me is like the it’s the non it’s the it’s not the the uh super exciting way to win the series but I think that that’s an interesting direction that Boston could go that would be really difficult for Dallas to deal with who needs this Championship more this is a tough one Boston’s bringing everybody back next year I said this with Colin the other day but the only thing that would really freak me out if I was Boston is if Tatum Tatum sucks if Tatum goes into the series like he did in the Warriors series and plays abhor bad and Luca dominates the series and Dallas wins in six games that’s a catastrophe because now it’s like holy Jason Tatum at age 26 just cannot go toe-to-toe with the best guys and it doesn’t matter how T talented of a roster we put around him they’re just not good enough like like that would be a catastrophe but any other outcome is great like if Tatum plays great and you lose you’re bringing everybody back next year and you Pro and you have a much better chance to get it done with another year of experience for Tatum right like or if you win right Dallas has it’s just if they lose it’s just bad no matter how you slice it because they’ve poured everything the worst case scenario for Dallas is if you get killed if Boston wins this series four games to one that’s that’s rough because now you’ve invested so heavily in this roster which does not have enough Firepower to beat Boston and that becomes an issue right and then you also didn’t have to play Denver in the in the in the Western Conference playoffs which there’s a decent chance you have to the following year right so like it’s kind of both teams will live to fight again regardless of what happens I’m going to say Dallas needs this Championship more though just simply because the West is much harder to get through and because they’ve invested so much more in terms of draft Capital into this particular season and they have less ability to Pivot than Boston does Boston has all these really good players they can trade really good players you know like Dallas has a lot of play finishers that are valuable for them but maybe less valuable elsewhere around the league all right guys that is all I have for this particular mailbag I will be back tomorrow with another mailbag on the rest of the league I’ll see you guys then [Music]

Jason Timpf answers listener questions about the NBA Finals during a mailbag segment. Jason dives into his early predictions on Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks’ matchup with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Boston Celtics.

Timeline:
00:00 – Introduction
00:53 – Jason’s early prediction
03:02 – Is Porzingis the key for Dallas?
11:57 – Better duo: Luka & Kyrie or Tatum & Brown?
15:02 – Pressure points were both defenses
19:09 – Will Mavs perimeter defense hurt them?
21:26 – Maxi Kleber returning a mistake?
22:00 – Mental battle of being in Finals
22:52 – National media too hard on Tatum?
32:04 – How winning impacts Kyrie’s legacy
33:29 – What will Celtics defense look like?
34:04 – Are we underrating Boston defense?
35:07 – How Dallas guards Porzingis
35:51 – Is Kyrie or Tatum the second best player in series?
36:10 – Will Jason ever say Tatum is better than Luka
39:39 – Can Tatum lock up Luka?
40:48 – Who needs this championship more?

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