The next Rondo or Maxey? Yes, the New Orleans Pelicans can draft a starter 21st overall

The next Rondo or Maxey? Yes, the New Orleans Pelicans can draft a starter 21st overall

rayon Rondo Tyrese Maxi Ryan Anderson all guys drafted 21st overall so what are the odds and chances the Pelicans can get that type of player in the upcoming draft I’ll break it down in today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans let’s go you are locked on Pelicans your daily New Orleans Pelicans podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team every every day welcome to another edition of locked on Pelicans the daily podcast covering your favorite team the New Orleans Pelicans at NBA part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day available wherever you get your podcast and available on YouTube I’m your host pel Insider credential member of the media Jake Madison NOA Jake on Twitter here with you’all on this Wednesday and we are going to look at the 21st overall pick can you get a Rondo can you get a Ryan Anderson or what’s this the quality level of player that you’re going to probably get with a 21st overall pick we’ll break it down to Today’s show but there’s a couple complications too with that and I’ll let you know what those are including a recent mock draft that I saw and making sure that the front office and coaching staff are on the same page plus we have a update on the Lakers head coaching search we know what that means when it comes to James BGA so thank you for making lock on Pelicans your first listen today and every day we are here the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about the team just giving you straight talk about the Pelicans so please subscribe wherever you get your podcast join over 10,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well and become an everyday or that means you listen Monday through Friday to locked on Pelicans so let’s get into this I want to start with this and this was inspired by a Hoops hype article that looks at kind of How likely you are to land a star player with each pick in the draft and I’ve done similar studies on this a lot of people have too and when you look at certain overall like certain picks the top five matter the the NBA draft is largely I don’t want to say a crapshoot but the quality definitely diminishes as it should right as as the draft goes on you don’t have as high of a chance of getting an All-Star level player with the 21st pick as you do with the first overall pick like that’s just how drafts go but you get a lot of Misses in there too complete misses and every now and then you’ll get a second round pick that turns into an MVP like joic well really the only one there but or just like a solid All-Star player like a green or what have you or herb Jones level kind of guy that’s an all defensive guy but the top five really make is where like the the majority of those type of players those top end players really come from they say per hoop typ that you get an All-Star level player with the first overall pick 65 a little over 65% of the time second overall pick 43% of the time the third pick an Allstar is 45% of the time the fifth pick and I’m reading these numbers for a reason seon 34% of the time the fifth pick 35% of the time the sixth pick it drops to under 20% it really does say that if you’re not drafting in the top five your chances of getting like that topend quality player really start to diminish while the numbers are at times kind of close and maybe go up a little bit or down a little bit it follows like a downward trend from the first pick to the 30th overall pick and once you get to kind of the 15th pick or so things start to drop a little bit even more that’s when you start to get under 10% for some of those type of players and the 21st pick is no real difference they say there is a 9.68% chance of drafting an All-Star there when you look at some of the NBA comps and NBA players that have been drafted 21st overall it’s actually pretty good I’m looking at the list going back to 1999 oddly a lot of them have played for New Orleans which is kind of weird to me there’s more um mop Pete Morris Peterson drafted 21st overall in 2000 Boris di by the Hawks in 2003 Nate Robinson NBA starter right NBA All-Star level guy drafted in ‘ 04 um in’ 05 Ronda drafted in ’06 Ryan Anderson 2008 the then New Orleans Hornets drafted darus Darren Collison in 2009 he became a starter for them and was a you know a longtime player in the NBA Georgie yangang in there as well you look at more recent guys and they’re useful players here two years ago Christian Brown was drafted by the nuggets and he was a key piece on him back in 2020 Tyrese Maxi was drafted with 21st overall blend Brandon Clark the year before that and then Grayson Allen was drafted by the Jazz in 2018 with the 21st overall pick one of the things I want to kind of stress to you the takeway from this segment here is those are all useful rotation guys some are obviously better than others Rondo kind of being the best probably drafted at 21st overall with multiple All-Star appearances in all NBA teams but Ryan Anderson was a serviceable starter for years Darren Collison was either a good starter maybe not a topend starter but a solid starter or a good backup right Grayson Allen has been key for a couple of different teams the Phoenix Suns this past year the Milwaukee Bucks before that Tyrese Maxi Allstar and he’s kind of like a buddying all NBA guy Christian Brown a very good depth piece useful rotation player for the Denver Nuggets so when you look at a lot of these names and a lot of the guys here that you know played for a while that is encouraging for New Orleans because here’s the thing you don’t need to draft an Allstar with this pick you don’t even need to draft a topend starter with this pick you know if you’re looking at big men and we’ll get into a complication with that coming up in the next segment here you know a Kell wear a Kyle filipowski and EES Mei or um was it Don Holmes II you just need a fifth starter right if you’re looking at a big man that is going to be a center that’s going to play that role and either start or be your kind of first center your first big man Off the Bench that’s all you’re looking for you’re not looking for the production on the level of a Zion Williamson a CJ McCullum a Brandon Ingram a Trey Murphy even a herb Jones you just need a dude that can go out and be your fifth guy with that starting unit or a guy that can come in and give you 25 minutes off the bench every single night I don’t think that’s asking too much yes this draft is a little bit weaker but when you look at some of the players that are drafted in this R in this spot and you know the guys that they could be I do feel pretty good that you can get that useful kind of player just kind of based on some of the historical data that we’re looking at and while you know data and stats are a snapshot in time they don’t predict the future they can be useful for trying to kind of figure out what you should do and I do think this indicates the Pelicans can get a quality player at this position that will be a contributor for them ideally sooner rather than later you don’t need a guy to be a starter that’s like okay we’re going to give him 15 or more shots per game you just need a dude that can step in breathe some air and do what he needs to do within the offense play a little bit of defense and you’re going to be in a good position ideally a big man you can definitely do that Brandon Clark was an impactful big man Off the Bench is a rookie for the Memphis Grizzlies Tyrese Maxi was immediately filling a role for the Philadelphia 76ers Christian Brown is filling a role for them all of these guys have been contributing for the most part over the past couple of years and I think that’s a really good indicator of what things can look like for the New Orleans Pelicans that also means that in a trade maybe for Brandon Ingram you don’t want to include the 21st overall pick because there does seem to be some indication that you’re going to get a guy that’s going to be a needed person for you and given that they’re kind of in a weird spot in terms of you know how much money can they spend and maybe needing to be a little bit cheap in certain places the 21st overall pick is certainly going to be able to do that so there’s some precedent that you can do really well here but there’s maybe some more complications with that and that involves two of the names that I just mentioned Kell wear and Don holes let’s look at that and the impact of the coaching staff on this as well that’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans is brought to you by our sponsor better help we all carry around different stressors in our life big and small and when you keep them bottled up it can start to negatively affect you and you don’t want these stressors to impact your life in other ways stress already bad enough right therapy though is a safe space to get things off your chest and to figure out how to work through whatever is weighing you down life doesn’t come 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and thank you for making lock on Pelicans your first listen today and every day we are here Monday through Friday the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team so please subscribe wherever you get your podcast join over 10,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well do you want to see him keep this 21st overall pick do you want to see him trade the 21st overall pick in this month’s NBA draft let me know in the comments down below for your second listen Ross Jackson’s going to have a ton of updates from Saints o OTAs cuz it’s open to the media so make sure you subscribe to the locked on Saints podcast and that they are your second listen he’s going to get you covered for everything black and gold part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day so let’s keep talking about the draft 21st overall pick we’ve talked a lot about big man as we should it’s a huge glaring need for the Pelicans and given the chances of drafting an All-Star is rather low I think this is a draft in a situation for the Pelicans where just go with someone that you think is going to be able to contrib and that fits a position of need there might be players that have higher ceilings at this spot but you can’t afford to kind of just wait for them to develop if they do and go for that risk reward kind of play you need someone that’s going to play and going to be able to just give you what you need and I think you can get that again some of the centers that we’ve been looking at and rightfully so are Kell wear EES Mei Kyle filipowski Duron Holmes there’s a couple of others too and we’ll get into we’re going to get into a lot of draft talk the next two weeks after this week so those are all names that I think make a ton of sense now this might get complicated a little bit as draft boards start to change now we’re past the the combine here we are into like draft workout season and I just saw a mock draft over at the ringer that had Kell we going in the top 10 if you look at all previous mock drafts he’s been around 21st overall out of Louisville this is a guy that’s a shot blocker that has a bit of a three-point shot too after you know playing one season at Oregon so he might not be there all of a sudden you know Don Holmes is canceling pre-draft workouts meaning he likely has a promise from some team that it’s like if you’re there when we’re drafting we will take you so you know kind of what your floor is and probably won’t work out for any team below that because more dating on you if someone wants to draft you can only kind of hurt things that maybe complicates this a little bit in getting the kind of guy that you want and you’ve got to maybe then be willing to trade up or just know that you maybe need to Pivot and go in a different direction because you need one of these guys that you think is going to contribute sorry there’s like something in my throat as I’m recording here which is the worst time for something like that so you might need to be flexible and really do your due diligence and start kind of canvasing around the league to kind of see where some of these guys are going to go so that you can go and draft a guy that you think will play so here’s the thing it’s that will play part right that’s kind of the when it comes to it with this team that will play because we have seen head coach Willie Green maybe not trust rookies in a way that we want and I don’t want to only focus on Jordan Hawkins this past season I don’t think that he really was the answer to what was wrong with the Pelicans so much as you needed to kind of figure things out with Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson more we saw herb Jones play as a rookie and yes Trey Murphy didn’t and they probably should have over Tony Snell his development has kind of worked out just fine and I’m okay with looking back on it how things have been handled you know Dyson Daniels early on was given minutes didn’t kind of meet that this team’s in win now and doesn’t have some of the luxury of trying to develop guys and I don’t think the answer was going to be Jordan Hawkins in the playoffs still couldn’t hurt to have tried some of these things though more but that’s more for the regular season right now you’re not going to have a ton of time next season to experiment with the way that the West is going to look so if you draft someone it it’s got to be it’s got to go a couple of different ways here one of a couple of different ways it means that you’re drafting a guy that you know Willie Green likes and will play when you think about how they’re probably going to address the center position if they don’t trade for someone is sign a center cheap in free agency that will be your kind of nominal starter and then draft someone that’s going to be your backup along with Larry Nance Jr if he’s not included in a trade you need to get someone that you think can play you’re going to need another kind of traditional backup big and Larry is a small ball big and I don’t think Larry was as bad as some people want to make him out to be this last season but you’re going to also just need a shot blocker back there so if you draft one and Kell we can give you that it seems like felow can give you some of that Mei can definitely give you that even if he’s just very unrefined with it and so can Holmes you’ve got to trust or you’ve got to know that Willie Green is going to play him because otherwise use this pick on another guy that will get minutes so you need the front office and the coaching staff to be on the same page when it comes to this 21st overall pick or and here’s kind of the flip side of that or you just have the front office tell the coaching staff what to do and we kind know that that’s something that David Griffin would like to do he had some influence on play Maybe starting Larry in the third quarters of games even though that didn’t really work so when you look at this situation that the Pelicans find themselves in you need to make sure that you’re all on the same page with that and that same page just might be you’re told what to do that is a valid thing too so the Pelicans definitely need to get this pick right and it’s going to mean getting everyone on board in some capacity I’m trying to pull Larry n Jr’s third quarter net rating because now I’m kind of curious about that and how that went and so sorry if I’m like distracted here as I’m talking um because you can’t keep doing what you were doing there needs to be just a plan in place and at times it felt like there wasn’t for the Pelicans last season so this is the time to try and get it right when it comes out l Jr had a positive net rating 1.7 in the third quarter yonas Val Tunis minus 4.4 still not really the answer if it’s just positive 1.7 as a starter though so not it’s also not necessarily as a starter so you’ve got to get this pick right because you can’t rely on a 1.7 net rating to kind of carry you through third quarters everyone’s got to be on the same page lock step is the word David Griffin would probably use to describe this so if you’re going to give you know it’s one of the things that you look at the Dallas Mavericks and they got players that Jason kid was going to want was going to use properly and that was part of it and they did and now look at them in the NBA Finals that goes a long way or just tell your coach what to do but no more seemingly kind of like acting without a plan or when data tells you that like something isn’t working you’ve got to definitely be a little bit and I think they are working strategically I don’t want to accuse them of not working strategically Al or planning strategically or coming up with like non-strategic game plans but you’re going to need someone that’s going to be impactful and if they have the tools like if it’s like we need Rim protection in the third we need a back a rim protecting backup big which they don’t have if you get that you got to play that guy because what’s the point of having him if you’re not going to play what’s the point of paying more into the luxury tax the team almost certainly is going to need to do that if you’re not going to play that guy just don’t draft it trade the pick or something like that save the money definitely make sure you get the right guy that the coaching staff is going to want to play I don’t think it’s that Willie Green doesn’t play rookies I think you’ve just got to make sure you get the right kind of guy for him there are rookies that he plays Herb Jones Dyson Daniels Jose Alvarado right undrafted rookie that got minutes as the season went on sometimes out of necessity but make sure you get a guy that your head coach is going to play that for me is a must do thing don’t just draft a raw guy that will never get minutes for this team CU they’re not ready and maybe in a couple years they’re going to be good good you can’t afford that with this pick this year get someone who will play and that will contribute or at least that you think will maybe it doesn’t happen that way but at least that you know that that’s kind of the plan going into the regular season or do you want to just go best player available let me know what you think in the comments down below so coming up next we’re get we got an update from Shams on the Lakers coaching search they’re zeroing in on JJ reic what’s that mean for James bgo does mean he staying here in New Orleans not so fast let’s look at that coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans is brought to you by FanDuel it’s winner take all time in the NBA and NHL and FanDuel is giving you a shot to bring home a big win of your own right now new customers get $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet that’s 150 bucks to bet on spreads money lines player props and more Celtics are favored by five and a half you think Dallas has a a better chance do you think they’re going to win game one or do you think the Celtics are going to run away with it the Mavs have only won game one one time in in the tenure of Jason kid here that kind of bodess well for the Celtics maybe they win by 6 78 take that minus 5 and a half then so visit f.com locked on and make every playoff shot count again that is $150 in bonus Bets with any winning $5 bet fuel America’s number one sports book in the official sports book of locked on and thank you for making lock on Pelicans your first listen today and every day we’re here Monday through Friday the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this team so please subscribe wherever you get your podcast join over 10,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well tell a friend about the show let him know about lock down Pelicans we’re going to have a ton of draft coverage the the next couple of weeks here going into other players than bigs there’s a couple I like that could be in this range and I’ll tell you who they are next week the way the way the ne the rest of the week is going to work here on lockon Pelicans tell your friend what’s coming on next on lockon Pelicans tomorrow is a Thursday trade Target Thursday we’re going to look at the Sacramento Kings there’s some interesting things you could do there but I think it also leads to a larger discussion around maybe keeping Brandon Ingram we’ll get into that in tomorrow’s show then Friday I’m going to give you my ideal ideal Pelicans offseason the trades I want to see him make the players I want to see them draft the free agents that I want to see them add and what that means for the team going for what is the ideal off seon that’s coming up on Friday’s episode of lockon pelicans that one’s going to be a lot of fun because I think there’s a way to really remake this team that is also realistic and maybe makes you a title Contender next season so now for your second listen don’t go to any place where they don’t actually talk sports are you watching Fox sports ESPN they’re just yelling all day it’s not really any Nuance discussion it’s not just what you want to hear right got to turn down the volume CU they’re yelling or they’re just making jokes and they’re not getting into the actual disc discussion you want make the switch to lock on sports today a free 24/7 Sports streaming Channel program for you every day to bring you the biggest stories without all that yelling locked on supports today brings you can’t miss analysis opinions and news streaming 24/7 on YouTube or the free Amazon Fire TV channels app part of the lockon podcast Network your team every day so let’s switch gears from the draft the 21st overall pick and look at the coaching the Lakers still don’t have a head coach the Cavaliers by the way still don’t have a head coach sham Sharia of the athletic re just before I started recording this was talking about how the Lakers are infatuated or zeroing in I forget the exact quote on JJ reic it feels like this is the worst kept secret around the league bargo’s name keeps getting brought up it’s basically sounds like for the Lakers job between bgo and reic but it sounds like it’s going to be reic and you feel like if it was bgo they would have hired him and announced it now he’s not coaching JJ reck it’s been said out loud that if he were to take the Lakers job it wouldn’t be until after the NBA Finals since he’s calling the games so if nothing’s getting done it’s kind of hinting at JJ reic right so that means James bre goes out of the running he’ll stay here in New Orleans right not so fast so one he’s still up for the Cavaliers job and they’re kind of like just getting started with their search getting deep into the process here interviewing another of a couple of other names as well to their interest in James bgo it also just based off of this maybe bargo’s just got the best agent in the world but it also easily could be this is a guy that’s just going to be a head coach again at some point in time I’ve said that it’s not the end of the world if he leaves but if you can keep him that would certainly be a good thing because Willie Green’s going to be a little bit on the hot seat going into next season and if you have to make a decision midseason on getting rid of him you’ll have bgo there to elevate to that top job and maybe keep him going forward because it sounds like he will be a head coach elsewhere you don’t want to run into kind of the Chris Finch situation where the Pelicans really did whiff on that in the past not firing Alvin Gentry mid-season and at least giving Chris Finch that interim tag to see what he could do they just didn’t think he was going to be a good head coach and he ended up just walking at the end of the year as he should have right that was kind of insulting if you’re him don’t if you can avoid that same mistake with bgo do that what what would concern me based on reading that athletic article is maybe he does follow JJ reck and go there as the lead assistant for the Lakers this I completely forgot about this he overlapped with Anthony Davis here in New Orleans for a brief period of time they talked about in that article how bgo has developed a bit of a rapport with Anthony Davis maybe through this whole interview process so you have a situation where maybe he wants to go to La bigger Market they might offer him more money something along those lines I don’t think that would be ideal we would certainly like to keep him here in New Orleans but but him leaving even to take kind of a similar job elsewhere I don’t think is the potential worst thing in the world so you can have him walking it’ll still be okay I’d previously have said I don’t want to see him leave for you know a a lateral position essentially but I don’t think it would be the end of the world should that actually be the case by the way would did they overlap I guess maybe he was on the staff after Anthony Davis was drafted and then left to go elsewhere I it was to the Orlando Magic I’m looking at it I don’t know when he was hired for that job so that’s kind of interesting so maybe they didn’t really overlap and they’re just kind of saying that um makes you kind of go huh wait what and so he might still leave I do think that’s going to be on the table they might just throw money at him to go be JJ reck’s lead assistant and the Pelicans should try and match that if they don’t I’m going to be a little bit disappointed in the team for that I want them to spend money coaches are getting more and more expensive right now we’ve seen that with Mike Brown more on him in tomorrow’s show too so you get this situation where they’re going to hire reic but I don’t think it’s for certain that bgo is going to be staying here in New Orleans it’s probably neither good nor bad whatever ends up happening though I would like to keep him just basically it’s keep people who are highly thought of around the league inhouse in your building I do think that’s an important thing a good thing so we’ll find out what happens with that but it sounds like it’s going to be JJ reic as the Lakers head coach and given that the Cavs want to interview even more people maybe that means that bgo is not going to go to Cleveland here so I still think there’s a good chance he ends up staying here in New Orleans next season and I think that would be a very good thing I’ve got to show on exactly why if you need to go and listen to that one but if you’re in every day or you already heard that show so tomorrow trade Target Thursday we’re going to look at the Sacramento Kings here in as a Brandon Ingram trade partner and then on Friday what the ideal my ideal offseason is it’s going to be a fun rest of the week here on lockdown Pelicans we’re going to get into a deep draft discussion on a ton of prospects in next week’s shows along with the trade Target Thursday and other news that’s going to come up we’re going to be covering it all here so that’s going to do it for this episode of lockon pelicans I appreciate yall so much for listening we are part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day as always I’m your host Jake Madison Nola Jake on Twitter be back with y’all tomorrow

The NBA Draft is quickly coming up for the New Orleans Pelicans. The good news is they can draft a quality player 21st overall. Rajon Rondo, Tyrese Maxey and others have all be drafted in that spot. Jake Madison looks at who could become a starter next to Zion Williamson. Plus, we have an update on the Los Angeles Lakers next head coach between JJ Redick and James Borrego.

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