Should the Trail Blazers Trade Up in the NBA Draft to Land 2 Top 10 Picks?

Should the Trail Blazers Trade Up in the NBA Draft to Land 2 Top 10 Picks?

in today’s show for the second time in less than two weeks the Blazers are rumored to be interested in trading up in the draft what might it look like and is this a good idea welcome to lockdown Blazers let’s get into it you are locked on Trailblazers your daily Portland Trailblazers podcast part of the locked on podcast Network your team everyday what up world your pass first point guard and Trailblazers reporter Mike Richmond you are listening to another episode of Locked on Blazers part of the locked on podcast network available wherever you get Podcast and also on YouTube thanks for making the show your first listen coming at each and every weekday Monday through Friday so make it a part of your daily daily routine make your first listen and tell your friends to do the same it’s locked on Blazers your team every day in today’s show another rumor connecting the Trailblazers to having interest in trading up in the draft is Portland chasing another top 10 pick armed with two lottery picks do they want to sweeten the pot and end up with two picks in the top 10 according to one report yes we’ll talk about that uh it’s not the first time we’ve heard this something like this uh I would also we shall also discuss uh what the packages might look like like what is a realistic trade package when you hear like the Blazers want to trade up right what is what is what are their realistic paths I think there’s two distinct ways they could approach it and I I’ll talk about that in the second segment and then like there seems to be whether this happens or not there seems to be a little bit of um maybe the smallest the smallest of small fires connected to this smoke and and I want to I want to just kind of put my cards on the table is is this a good idea is this the right approach for this draft for this for this team for this month uh let’s let’s let’s get into it in today’s show we got we got two weeks um as you’re listening to this less than two weeks uh from the draft it is it is you are listening to Thursday June 13th show um Le less than two weeks away from the NBA draft it’s lying season let’s let’s just put that out there to begin with this is the time of year that you hear things that are intentionally untrue because folks and particularly agents this time of year are putting out stuff that is particularly untrue but I don’t think this what I’m about to tell you here um necessarily F Falls in that category for for some reasons that I will that I will break down for you Kevin o’ Conor uh veteran NBA reporter who writes for the ringer and and is a podcaster for the ringer and a couple different shows on the ringer NBA draft show that published on Wednesday June 12th he said that the Blazers are among three teams that he has heard who are interested in trading up into the draft either to get into the lottery or in the case of a couple of of the Blazers getting a second top 10 pick he says that he’s hearing that Cleveland Toronto and the Blazers are all all teams that have been that are interested in trading up in the draft Toronto has has a pick in the teens obviously um Cleveland they’re two in the Blazers are at 7 and 14 teams that are interested in in in in trading up into this draft and I do think there is in general and I think this happens often this time of year and and maybe it happens all the time in sort of the new world of media is that um when someone who is not the sort of typical news breaker news broker report some Intel people discredit it on face value by by virtue of it not being from a source they prefer to hear from right this say w get out of here this ain’t my guy Shams I don’t want to hear it um and I think that’s sort of the poison of modernity but I also think there is um you know that certain people break stories for certain reasons right and that that’s kind of just sort of media literacy that you have to develop on your own dear listener also Al just judging by my text messages from my from my friends uh I don’t think Blazer fans love Kevin o’ Conor I think he’s been a little bit harsh about the team and the reality that they faced over the last few years and people just people don’t people don’t care for his coverage right so when he says to stuff it’s like it can’t be true I dismiss this whole cloth um I wouldn’t and here’s why I wouldn’t because I’m old enough to remember two weeks ago two weeks ago Jonathan gavone of ESPN reported the Blazers were among the three teams interested in trading up with Houston for the number three pick in the draft those three teams at the time included Chicago Portland and Memphis who had expressed some interest or at least had put out some feelers to see what a trade would look like this doesn’t mean the Blazers are going to make a trade are going to trade up in the draft but when two Independent Media team media companies totally separate reporters that do not report the same things have it that the Blazers have have shown interest in trading up in the draft it it just has to be true that they’ve shown interest in trading up in the draft you know sometimes this stuff leaks out because say Houston in the in the case of of ESPN’s report that that came out on June 1st it’s like Houston has maybe interest in driving up the price oh we’ve heard from all of these teams so at the time it’s like yeah hey maybe this is I’m not saying that it’s it’s false but there’s a reason why it would be out there but when two different reporters say that it’s there I think it’s pretty clear that the Blazers if nothing else are putting out feelers now that doesn’t mean that a that they have accelerated to the point where they are talking deal right um I think there is kind of like a NBA 2 2A 2A 2K ification NBA 2K ification is the word that I’m trying to make up poorly on the spot here where um like not all trade talks are like here’s the trade package take it or leave it right some of it is exploratory calls um you know this is It’s been explained to me in the past by members of NBA front offices um like that you say are you trying to get are you trying to take on money are you trying to shed money or do you want players do you want picks right you kind of you say oh okay well if we were to make a trade for the sixth pick in the draft like say it’s Charlotte or whatever we’d actually like to um we’d act we’d like to add future picks we’re not interested in adding veteran players we want to add future picks or if you’re talking with Houston they’re like oh we want to add veterans but um we would prioritize some picks but you know here here’s kind of what what we’re looking for but we’re not super interested in first rounders into the future because we have those you need like players that can play um and so you kind of get a baseline for deals so the the idea that the Blazers have like are it’s you know being rumored from multiple sources that the Blazers have had have had separate you know at least in in certain situations um I don’t know if they’re separate or this is the same thing that two reporters are hearing but in certain situations the Bladers have explored the idea of trading up it makes sense to me that’s like you do your due diligence this is what the blazes are doing this is what you want them to do you want them to explore all of the Avenues the blazes are at 7 and4 they’re an incredibly crucial summer the next two summers are incredibly crucial for the Blazers for the health of the franchise if they’re going to get out of hell they need to be they need to get the next two summers right that’s kind of that’s going to be a theme of the whole this podcast for a long time right it’s like they got to get the stuff right so exploring what that looks like what right looks like is incredibly important to them what would a trade package if we want to move up in the draft we being the Royal Wii of the Portland triple if if if we’re sitting at 14 and some veterans today angle or 14 and some second round picks what does that trade look like what where can we get to and if we get to what does our Intel say is still going to be on the board you’re trying to figure all of that out during lying season but I think um like I said I think there is the I think this smoke is like the very very very faint Embers of a campfire that an irresponsible camper did not quite put out it’s real it may have been burning at some point it could easily be burning again but right now it’s just very clear that the Blazers if nothing else have been doing have been making calls they’ve been doing the job of running a basketball team so if they’re doing the job of running a basketball team what the hell does it look like what does this look like let’s talk about what it could look like I want to offer two trades that are kind of the different routes I believe the Blazers could go and I I’ll go specifics because I know people love fake trades and I’m good I’ve cooked up some fake ones some sort of fake ideas fake parameters that kind of explain where I think the two directions if the Blazers are indeed considering trading up what it could look like in two different scenarios join me to hear those scenarios in the second segment first though I want to tell you that Today’s Show is brought to you by game time it’s the place for last minute tickets it’s the app that makes procrast that rewards procrastinators if you’re considering going to a game well use game time to get up to 60% off on last minute tickets um this summer the Portland Timbers and the Portland Thorns they’re they they’re in action at Providence Park they’re in beautiful Northwest Portland it’s it’s a wonderful place to catch a game in the summertime they’re actually both out of town this weekend which gives you even more time to procrastinate and get some deals on and um on the game time app so the Thorns will be back in town not this coming Sunday but Sunday afterwards uh that is the 23rd so the week after Father’s Day uh shout 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time today last minute tickets lowest prices [Music] guaranteed all right so the Blazers clearly are at least considering a trade up or if nothing else exploring what the market might look like I think it is when when multiple multiple reporters report something similar I think it’s undeniable that it’s probably happening the extent to which it is happening is Up For Debate um and maybe not even up to debate just completely unclear to us from the outside but it’s I think it’s very clear that the Blazers are at least making calls doing the exploratory work to see what it would look like I I’m going to pitch you two deals that I think are kind of the two different routes they could go here and then close the show talking about whether I think this is the right move or not but let’s let’s kind of get into the the um the specifics of the hypothetical uh and then unpack it a little bit on a on a show earlier this um earlier this offseason with Jackson Gatlin of locked on Rockets we discussed a hypothetical trade about the Blazers moving up from 7 to 3 um and it was centered around Malcolm brogs and going to Houston and and when um Jax and I were discussing that we ended up not uh finalizing a deal neither of us liked the package we didn’t want to give stuff up but it was kind of like the type of thing you talk about in in June that maybe you revisit in you know in early June that you revisit in late June or on draft night when things get serious I think it was a a sort of good use of the exercise but let’s say that’s I think that’s kind of the first route the Blazers use a veteran player who’s not going to be part of the sort of long-term core and I think Malcolm brog seems to be the most tradeable most obvious trade piece on on on the roster um use that as your starting point so you kind of get out from not get out from under but you move on from from a veteran to prioritize you know um playing time for for your young guards and also allow you to draft other young guards into the future kind of clear up some of your decision making by getting rid of a good player in Malcolm brogs and and getting rewarded for doing so but I’m going to pitch a slightly different trade because if the Blazers if we’re following the sort of Kevin oconor reporting the Blazers don’t want to trade up from seven and end up with like three and 14 they want two top 10 picks cuz they’ve got their eyes on four so I’m going to pitch this Malcolm Brogden 14 and 34 that’s the Blazer’s first pick in the second round in exchange for Jo lale and Jeff Green and three uh if the if the Rockets balk you offer them either 40 in this draft or a future second round pick and you say that’s our sweetener that’s what we’ve got and we’re giving you the best player in the draft a functional player that’s going to help your young guards like I think you could argue them Mal br’s like better than Jaylen green might not be that way for long um but like um and I’m not even sure I would make that AR but he’s certainly he’s like he’s he’s effective he would be um he’d be he he’d be able to play and they want to be competitive because they don’t own their draft picks um familiarity with em udoka you’re getting an upgrade in the back court for very little um for very little cost the blazes end up with veteran Jeff Green who I really like if you’re going to add a guy in the late 30s how about a guy in the late 30s who knows how to knows how to play in the league offered some veteran leadership and doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective and probably doesn’t even need to play a whole bunch of minutes to offer you some value and landel is like Insurance Center and on a team that has a lot of insurance centers but he is um has you know a non- guaranteed contract I believe for the next two seasons Beyond this upcoming one so three more heading into this season um imminently tradable if another team needs them you could just like go ahead and flip them if you don’t if if um if he’s not in your immediate plans and you want to just like play duop wath and and Bank on on Rob Williams or whatever it is it’s it’s it’s relatively low cost for the Blazers that’s one route right that’s one route that is the sort of that is the um T trade a player route you end up with three and seven and you allow I I I think you know I talk about this more in the third segment but like you you have yourself a chance to make three of the first seven picks in this draft you’ll be the first team to draft twice because you’ll be effectively leapfrogging the Spurs who have four and eight you’ll be the first team to make two choices um and and you’ll probably have um I guess a higher hit rate hard to know hard to know at least less folks making decisions in front of you that’s one route you trade Malcolm brogs and you move up in the draft not 100% sure that gets done but that’s a framework of one idea the Rockets are rumored to be interested in trading that pick back there’s some value they still end up with 14th pick in the draft they might they might be able to hit that pick if there’s somebody they like in that range Bing Bang Boom that’s one route the other route is just straight picks and I think this is more of a team like Memphis so you come a calling to Memphis with 14 and 34 to move up to 9 and Memphis says that’s a lot we don’t want to move back five spots um you know we could use another second round pick because we’re relatively expensive roster and second rounders are going to help us build out the roster in the in the future and even our sort of young players like we don’t know what to do with Z Williams and Santi Al dama like maybe we need to sort of reset our our young our young you know back half of the rotation types um and they’ve been pretty good on the margins Vince Williams and and GG Jackson to to note um so it’s like even though me Memphis has 39 in this draft they say okay we’ll take 34 to but if they don’t you say either 40 in this draft I don’t think they want three second round picks in this draft maybe they do if not you say Okay a future second rounder of your choosing 2 seconds 14 to move up to nine that’s the other route right is you don’t cash in your veteran you don’t um instead of uh instead of using a player to move up maybe further in the draft you just move up to seven and nine right you end up with two picks in the in the sort of in that mid late Lottery range you get um you might be able to Leap Frog some guys you know if you’re worried like okay uh we can use more specifics here it’s like okay at at seven we’re going to take tjon salong because we know he’s not going to fall past San Antonio at 8 but at 9 this gives us an opportunity to go get say like aulton connect who we know won’t be there like Memphis would take him and he won’t be he won’t drop past 10 and it’s like we we want you know that upside swing in um in in in Salon but we also want like a functional 23-year-old shooter who could help like at least make the offense easier in in like I don’t know like immediately it’s hard to know how good dton connect’s going to be as a rookie but like theoretically helps much earlier in his career and and could be useful um you know could be useful in the fall as opposed to some that you need to be a little more patient on like an upside swing like salon so I think that’s the other route right is that you use you don’t trade players you specifically say okay we’re just swapping picks um maybe 14 to9 is a little too aggressive in that in that area um and and maybe that doesn’t maybe that um that might be somewhat wishful thinking but I’m offering some um offering some sort of ideas I think in general the notion is that after the top two picks which mostly are um when you look at mock drafts from the folks in the know are mostly either uh Zachary rash or Alexander SAR in some order and then it’s like wide open from there um you know there’s folks who have clinging up that high there’s folks who have match bazel up that high there’s you know I think before the ACL injury nicpic was often in the top three like um it’s pretty wide open so if a team you know maybe Memphis says like yeah we’ll take two first cuz we know we’re going to get our guy like if he’s on or it’s like we agreed to the trade we’ll draft for you assuming that um now we know you know because we have we’ve done our our int our Intel we know we’re going to get who we want at 14 we’re not worried plus we really like a couple guys in that early second round range and if we move up from 39 to 34 o now we’re cooking I think those are the two sort of of broadly speaking the two approaches um I think I kind of spoiled some of the logic here right but I don’t if the draft is relatively flat and if there is a lack of consensus why trade up why trade up I think that’s that’s the question right like if if if um you know especially if you know like well this team’s not going to take a big and we want a big or this team’s definitely going to take one of you know Rob dillingham’s on the board and we’re not interested in Dillingham or Nicol Topic’s on the board we’re not interested in topich like we can if we only trade up to I I think another another one that I had considered was trading up with um with Utah but I don’t think just looking at the roster I don’t think Utah necessarily needs Brogden like he doesn’t make a ton of sense for him because they already have Colin seon and they already have Kean George and they already have um Jordan Clarkson obviously Utah could do some other things that make that makes it more valuable in theory they could trade for Jeremy Grant but I don’t I don’t um I don’t see like a super duper clean fit although like they’ve played lry Market in a bunch at the small forward over the last couple Seasons it’s fine um they can they can pencil him in there even now like if they were to play Walker Kessler and John Collins together then Low’s playing small forward there too so like but I don’t see an easy one with with Utah and trading up to 10 I don’t think it’s I don’t think it’s super obvious there but I I think those are the two routes you use a a veteran to make maybe move up a little bit higher cuz you’re offering some offering some real quality or you find someone in the then that would allow you to get up in that three-ish range I don’t think like I don’t think the Washington Detroit or Charlotte would want to trade for a vet so if you’re trading with them you’re trading picks um and like you know I I think there’s that you know you you end up in that um you know Washington’s at two I don’t think you’re going to jump all the way up there but like five with Detroit and six with with Charlotte I think there’s a world in which the Blazers explore trades for them I think there’s a there’s a Jeremy Grant reunion idea floating around with Detroit although I don’t um I’m not sure I love that trade package necessarily but all of this is to say like the framework of all these things including the two specifics that they offered like the the vet route or the J picks route is this a good idea like is this is this something they should do let’s let’s talk about the logic of it and what it means if they do pursue this path for the Blazers that’s what we’ll do to close the show join me in the uh third and final segment won’t you first though I want to tell you that Today’s Show is brought to you by prize picks it’s the easiest way to play daily fantasy sports it’s also the number one fantasy sports app with over 5 million members it’s the most fun exciting way to get on the action when you’re watching your favorite sports and your favorite players all summer long you just pick more or less on two or more player stats and get a shot to win up to 100 times your cash with prize picks you can turn $10 into $1,000 in a single game watching your favorite sports this summer so whether that’s uh Major League Baseball All Summer 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Chase trading up in this draft I wouldn’t do it um but I don’t have all the info so the sort of the cliffnotes version of the first two segments of this thing is like no I don’t think it’s a good idea no I don’t it like on my face value I I’ve kind of joked that I’m like a low information strong opinion h in this draft but like no I I I don’t think I don’t think this draft is strong enough and there’s no there’s no specific prospect that appeals to me from my seat here in my very own basement that I say yeah you got to do it cash Malcolm Brogden and get to three like Donovan kingan doesn’t do it for me like that like I I’m not like he’s gonna be Rudy Gober except with a hip American haircut like he’s big um I think he’s probably going to be pretty good on defense I don’t know that I would chase him but I am operating under the assumption that the Portland Trailblazers know a lot more than me so I’ll say two things one I I don’t like the Malcolm Brogden route necessarily I don’t hate it I don’t hate it um but like I think it’s fine but I would be hesitant to trade away players on the roster who I think have Standalone trade value to trade up in this draft that is perceived and I hold this perception as well as a relatively weak draft class when I read the scouting reports and watch some YouTube videos I think like every one of the players that are kind of in the Blazers draft range in that seven and 14 range are flawed and it’s it you are you are really hoping that you get it right and there there aren’t players at the top of the draft and I think this is the real the real key here is like there’s no one at the top of the draft that say like okay well if you get in this range you’re you’re guaranteed to get something or other right you’re guaranteed to get uh you know a guy who has a chance to make multiple Allstar teams I don’t I don’t certainly there will be impact players in this draft but where those impact players land who freaking knows and so that’s when if you are if you are in favor of this route I think the the why you would be in favor of it is you trust the Blazers decision makers you say listen if they see someone they love at nine striking that deal with Memphis and making the selections at seven and nine give them a chance to get it right or if they you know strike the deal with Houston these are again hypothetical I made up like if if you were to make those deals they get up to three and they get the guy they want that that is you know you trust them to get it right to get that part correct and move from there that would be why you’re in favor of it I think in general like I said like I I’m in favor of the Blazers trading many of their veteran players they’re allowed to acquire veteran players you’ll notice that in the brog and trade I have them acquiring Jeff Green I don’t I don’t think every single player on the roster needs to be 22 years old um but I do think that it would be more valuable if they had some the veterans they had were less sort of like ball dominant offense first guys and they could kind of clear the runway a little bit for to still have the veteran presence and all the value that like institutional knowledge in the NBA brings but not um maybe dudes who need to play 22 minutes and dribble a bunch because that’s maybe not the most onc Court valuable onc Court development also they could use maybe some uh Shooters uh with with those vets too because they could use some use some shooting in these lineups um does Jeff Green solve that no he he does he does not obviously um maybe not obviously he does not um so like I while I’m in favor of them trading vets if does Malcolm Brogden have more value than being able to jump from than cashing in you know jumping from I think that particular trade you’re trading 14 and 34 and maybe another future second I think you would have value there if it’s if it’s if it’s like the sort of the rumored uh you know if it’s packaging multiple picks to move up to three if it’s seven and 14 to move up to three I hate it if it’s like seven to move up to three I’m not super in favor of it if it’s many vets matis thy Jeremy Grant combos Rob Williams um anrey Simons combos I don’t think I love that either um because I think the Standalone value of the trade of of potential trades that you could get from Malcolm Brogden or Jeremy Grant or anre Simons or any combination of that three might yield you more value in the long run than jumping up in this particular draft because again it is noted to be a relatively week class and when I as I continue to learn about these prospects I am not enamored that’s my personal opinion but I don’t think that alone makes this like disqualifying bad like I don’t think this is capital B bad because I my personal opinion is that I’m wary of it that I’m wary of it I don’t even it’s like I wouldn’t do it but I don’t get to do it anyways I’m wary of that decision making it doesn’t um it’s not a great it’s not a great path in my eyes but I know this and I’m and I believe believe it so strongly the Blazers have to get these next two summers right so if you if if they know that say like Salah and topic or um I don’t know Reed Shepard and Donovan kingan or or or Ron Holland and and and Zack Edy are the guys right and that that like you know and and you know you can only get them I think Ed is maybe a bad example because he’s can to be deeper in in the draft but it’s like if you think you to if you think the best path forward the way that you’re are going to be good is if you absolutely end up with Donovan cling and Dalton connect and the way to do that is to cash in some assets so you’re picking at you know six and seven back to back so there’s no there’s no interference anywhere they have to do it I don’t know who’s the impact player who’s going to hit in this draft there’s probably two or three of them there’s you know I think the history of the draft suggests that there’s probably one dude who makes the Hall of Fame in this draft class and a couple Allstars um one of that all stars is also probably the Hall of Famer but like even the worst drafts ever yield some Talent 2013 yielded ruy gobear and Yannis an tupo and CJ McCollum who’s pretty good um I think the 2017 draft was a huge mess but like you get Jason Tatum at three and then the the teens yielded Donovan Mitchell and and and and bamat bio and do not look into the Blazers specific draft history regarding that draft and trading up if you want to have positive vibes but like and I don’t think like they trade it up once so they they it it always goes wrong like it the idea is that if you trust the decision makers in the front office making the move this time of year is like you have to get you have to get this draft right you’re probably going to be really bad again next year and you have to get 2025 that draft right you have to get these Summers correct and you probably have to get the drafts correct there are ways out of the gutter for teams in the Blazers situation that aren’t just nailing draft picks but it only gets you back to the middle if you just nail a couple trades the way that they get back into being like seriously competitive with a four to six-year window is nailing the draft perhaps they already have and that and and Shaden sharp and Scoot Henderson are going to pop and it’s going to feel very different next year but I think like right now we don’t know and they’re going to be you know they’re a team that’s going to have two lottery picks and perhaps if they go this route two top 10 picks and they’re probably going to be picking it towards the top of the lottery again next season I don’t think I would go the trade-up route but if they do they have to get it right it is imperative that they get it right or the cycle is just going to continue forever and there’s no good way out if you miss on the draft and you are bad and then you are back in the draft there’s no magic Elixir to get out of there fans will say tanking doesn’t work well um what if you are just bad by incompetence then it’s the it will be the same outcome as tanking you know functionally and you you know how you’ll save your yourself from that hell you will draft correctly you’ll nail some draft pick and get out of there um whether you you know whether you chase the middle or chase the bottom the way to get back to above the middle is to nail the draft if you’re you know 95% of the league that isn’t involved in signing stars and free agency and is not destinations where players demand to be traded to I don’t know if trading up in the draft is the right is the right process I I think it’s I personally think it’s not but the Blazers a lot more much stronger you know the Blazer front office much stronger uh understanding of the breath of the draft the bre the prospects and the direction this team wants to go so I will I will say that I defer to them in this this world right if they if they value that if they value the move so be it but you can’t get it wrong you cannot turn three picks into Zack Collins and kilip swanigan because you know what happened it ruined the back half of Damen Lillard’s career it will be a long time time in the desert if you get it wrong these are the two summers to get it right they’ve set themselves up to be high lottery selectors in four consecutive drafts you got to come away with players that anchor the foundation and if trading up anchors the foundation that’s the move that’s going to do it for uh today’s show come back for tomorrow’s show you’re not going to want to miss this one uh a a rare week where we’re going to have three interview views uh Tyler meaf of No Ceilings is going to join the program on Friday’s show um so what we do here 5 days a week wherever you get podcasts and also on YouTube We’re ramping up towards the NBA draft less than two weeks away as you are listening to this tell your friends about the program um I say this a lot but I I sincerely mean it this is the Blazer podcast that is coming out 5 days a week you’re not getting this anywhere else so if you made it this deep into the show tell a friend about the program and then come back for tomorrow’s show I appreciate you listening I’ll talk to you soon [Music]

A report from Kevin O’Connor at The Ringer says the Trail Blazers are interested in trading up to get a second top 10 pick in the 2024 NBA draft. This follows a similar report from ESPN a couple weeks ago. Is there any fire around this smoke? What would a package look like? Is this even a good idea?

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