What happens when 8 teams all decide it is time for Cooper Flagg

What happens when 8 teams all decide it is time for Cooper Flagg

what happens when the bathtub full of tank is too full and the water starts to overflow that’s next on locked on Jazz you are locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz part of the lock on podcast Network your team every day how are you I am David lock radio voice of Utah jazz jazz NBA Insider this is locked on Jazz your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz today we’re gonna look at the Cooper flag effect the dude is tearing up USA basketball right now and there is a bathtub full of tank lining up in the NBA to get their 14% chance to get him we’ll talk about it the Jazz have $37 million in cap space that they have not used yet you keeping their powder dry how could have they used it and what have the why is the powder dry we’ll discuss that coming up I might bore you to death with some really geeky cap stuff so hopefully you don’t fall asleep driving anywhere and night two of Summer League was a bust last night that was not good we’ll talk about all those things coming up on today’s show as I mentioned this is locked on Jazz it’s your daily podcast on the Utah Jazz it gives you Insight expertise geeky numbers and hopefully makes it way better to be a jazz fan each and every day thank you so much for making locked on Jazz your first listen of the day we are free and available on all podcasting apps we’re also on YouTube please give us a thumbs up please subscribe follow join the show if you’re on YouTube hit that Bell button then you know uh what’s coming and we notify you and so thank you you for being a first time making lockdown Jazz your first listen and thank you for being an every dayer I do greatly appreciate it uh today’s show is brought to you in part by our friends over at who is it today oh it’s game time that’s right tonight’s episode Game Time download the game time app create an account and use the code locked on for $20 off your first purchase term Supply maybe use it for Noah com last night uh all right so we have something interesting going on in the NBA the NBA flattened the lottery odds to try to get rid of the uh chances of teams tanking and right now I don’t know if we would call that having been successful because if you go to fanduel.com or sportsbook.com fandel Sportsbook and you go to conference championships in the Eastern Conference there are three teams at 50,000 to one and in the Western Conference there’s two teams at 50,000 to one so that’s five teams right there that are already like that’s as big odds they give you if you go to the NBA finals chances there’s eight teams that are 100,000 100,000 to one eight teams now if you look at Conference Championship so you kind of try to narrow this down a little bit of those eight teams at least the right now the sports books think that Chicago Toronto and Charlotte are slightly better than the other five not sure I totally think that is true but as of right now there are eight teams that are a 100,000 to one to make the NBA Finals zero chance yeah we’re one of them the Jazz the Nets the Wizards the Pistons the Blazers the Raptors the Hornets and the Bulls and the Hawks aren’t far behind I mean Eastern conference is kind of crazy there are eight teams that are going to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference and somebody is going to accidentally make the plan seriously Boston New York in order probably let’s just do it Boston Philadelphia New York Cleveland mil Milwaukee Orlando Indiana Miami that’s the eight somebody two other teams have to make the play in right now it’s probably Atlanta at nine and then I think Chicago Brooklyn Toronto did I say Charlotte Washington Detroit one of those makes the play in by accident in Eastern Conference they make the play in at sub 30 wins there are eight teams right now and Atlanta’s close to nine that are legitimately positioned to be able to just tank get in the bathtub a tank I don’t know what the bathtub has to do with it but somehow that seems to be like I have this vision of like there’s this pool and everyone’s getting in it and the it just kind of keeps filling up with water and it keeps turning over and over and over over and over that’s kind of like that’s what I Envision right now there’s no one who has like an over under in win totals out there right now but I would guess that like the Jazz would be at like 28.5 and the Wizards would be like 23 and the Nets would be like 25 and the Hornets are probably at 30 like I think all these teams are 30 or below in the win total maybe we’re a little higher maybe we’re 31.5 so what do you do what happens here when there’s suddenly a bathtub full of tank Cooper flag is that good right now and so is Ace Bailey and so are some others that the 2025 draft has everyone just completely enamored now we’ve done this before and it turned out to be Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker and Dante exom and Aaron Gordon and Joel embiid who was legit and it was worth it for Philly Joel embiid single-handedly gives them wins for all these years but this is I don’t know exactly what you’re supposed to do here but when you start to look and like Toronto and Brooklyn are both at 50,000 to1 to win their division Detroit’s at 50,000 to1 to win its division Washington’s at actually at 30,000 were’re at 50,000 Portland’s at 50,000 and that’s it in the west now this is the interesting one in the west and maybe this is a little bit of it to our if we’re trying to draft position ourselves this year and develop talent and draft position at the same time is maybe a little bit to our advantage is that we only play the Brooklyn Nets twice the Washington Wizards twice the Toronto Raptors twice the Hornets twice the Bulls twice the Pistons twice that when the way the NBA schedule works and you play 30 games against Eastern Conference teams and you play 52 against Western Conference teams that of the 48 games that we play against Western Conference teams that aren’t named the Portland Trailblazers we probably not favored in very many of them like very few as of right now we’re probably favored when we play the San Antonio Spurs at home we probably are favored against the Houston Rockets at home and we’ll see about the LA Clippers and who’s healthy for them I don’t know when we play Sacramento at home are we going to be favored don’t know whereas Chicago is probably going to be one of those teams that ends up in the playing to they they actually like that because when they play the Pistons and they play the Hornets and they play the Raptors and play the Wizards and they play the Nets they’ll be favored now the fact is that what’s crazy about this is that the NBA did play around with the lottery Yachts one through three has a 14% chance to get Cooper flat if in fact he’s the number one pick and a only a 52% chance of being a top four team now this draft might have four players so there’s eight teams in the bathtub full of tank and only three of them are going to have a 50% chance or better of having a top four pick when it’s done the fourth team said about gets I think a little less than that 12.5% and I think it drops to about 48% maybe maybe four and five come close with Lottery odds to being at 50% also it can’t be it can be that five teams are over 50% that actually would work mathematically but once you’re at the six pick you’re at a 9% chance of getting number one and you’re at about a 45% 46% chance of staying in the top four so the NBA has in fact made it less beneficial less guaranteed than ever before to play in the bathtub full of tank and yet we may have eight teams if not nine teams trying to get into the same little small confined area without enough water kind of gross it’s wild now I don’t I don’t know what you’re supposed to do honestly like so all right so like you’re listening right now your answer is like so what I I I don’t actually have a good so what answer like I think it’s the reality of what just has happened it’s weird it’s not what the NBA had intended I’m trying to figure out if there’s some unintended consequences has caused this like with the first apron the second apron all these things that we’re GNA delve into and try to make sense out of for one time ever I’ll try to make sense out of it this isn’t what they designed and thought would happen but it has happened and frankly as we look at the Jazz still have $37 million of cap space but I can’t tell you what I think they should have done with it we’ll look at that next in other words it’s not a great situation to be in because everyone’s playing in the same sandbox you are but I’m not sure I actually have a good answer of what that sandbox should have been I think the Jazz when the big game hunting efforts fell short are in a weird box and I don’t actually have a good answer for what that box should be that’s next on lock on Jazz Today’s Show is brought to you by our friends over at intercap lending that’s Steve Carter and this is pretty neat uh intercap that’s been for us a long long time and Steve Carter is our 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trading Lowry the concept of trading Lowry was hard because no other team could do this and so how if they could use up to I don’t think they’ll have to but they could use up to $24 million of their cap space for Lowry if I understand the rules correctly I don’t think they’ll need all of that but I think so that’ll leave them somewhere at the minimum of $13 million of cap space um at the end of that situation and so there has been this little thing that if the Jazz were going to use their cap space they would have had to use it in a manner that they left themselves if resigning Lowry is a priority at least 13 or 14 million of cap space okay so if they have 37 and they had to leave themselves 14 million they they couldn’t like the Harrison Barnes deal where San Antonio took $18 million of Harrison Barnes into their cap space in exchange for a 2031 unprotected pick swap with the Sacramento Kings which is pretty interesting concept we’ll talk some about pick swaps today I mean this is an exciting show cap pix swaps aprons I mean holy cow you just are thinking to yourself wow this is dynamic crazy stuff okay we’re trying to make sense out of things hopefully you’re still sticking with me I greatly appreciate you if you are okay so the Jazz of 3730 million catch I don’t think they’re going have to use all of it to resign Lowry but on the other end Lowry’s look might be looking at the roster being like wow like I gotta go through a year of losing or two maybe I want all of it so the Jazz get a deal done with Lowry the chances are they’re using somewhere in the range of as much as possibly $23 million in cash pleas you if you do want to resign Lowry you didn’t want to bring Harrison Barnes at$ 18 million into your cap space and then have Lowry be like yeah I’m not interested because I’m not getting the full deal okay like that’s that’s the tricky thing the way the on the damat sabonis deal that a lot of people use as the kind of model for what the the Spurs did in what the Kings did in 2023 was sabonis is uh they bumped his number up using cap space uh gave him an extra $15 million taking his salary from 22 to 37 and then from 37 they extended him out okay so he went you know I don’t you know 22 to 37 is what sabonis did I think Lowry you know is I I don’t know if the Jazz have to go that far but Lowry’s at 18 if you were trying to get him to 37 you had to use you know that’s 19 that’s somewhere in that range that’s 19 million dollar of cap space right there instead of the 23 I’m talking about so you’re in you know you’re in that kind of game all right I think you’ve got that figured out so for the Jazz what got tricky here is that could have you done the deal where you get involved as the third team for and Harrison Barn deal for the San Antonio and the answer is yes you could have but then you wouldn’t have had all of the C you probably would have had enough but boy that probably if that turns out to be wrong would be a catastrophic error all right Sacramento sign toar Rosen like okay you decide that you’re in a bathtub full of tank there’s no point to be everyone’s doing it we’re going to be a little bit better than that we’re going to have a better environment and you have to and Demar de Rosen signs for I believe it was 24 million well then you’re you you don’t have it you can’t do Lowry Markin if you dear rozan okay well that’s not that’s not a great deal so when all of a sudden none of the big game hunting came together I guess there’s probably one other miles Bridges recently signed if you wanted miles Bridges and Miles Bridges seem to sign for on average about 25 million again the Jazz would have had 12 million left over that’s not enough probably to get the Lowry deal done so what happens to the Jazz here a little bit is when they make these moves or try to make these moves to improve the team you end up with you’re in a little bit of a box where you can go sign someone you probably doesn’t get you totally out of the bathtub full of tank and you limit your chances of resigning Lowry okay so now the Jazz find themselves in a really interesting circumstance and I honestly do not know entirely how this is going to play out but this is going to be interesting to watch and there is a chance that the Jazz have done something really really smart and they’re going to benefit off it in the next little between now and the end of the year and that is that there are suddenly a plethora of teams that are stuck hard capped on the first apron or the second apron and the Jazz are the one team left along with a little bit of Detroit that has cap space and if you’re trying to get out from under something here coming up in the near future the one person you can call is Justin zanic like Justin zanic has become the better help for any team that has apron issues 16 teams right now are hard capped at the first or second apron the second apron really is bad I’ll explain on that in a second and then touch on what was a not very good night to of summer league as we continue here on lockon Jazz thank you very much for making lock on Jazz your first listen of the day lock on NBA is available for you is your second listen today so feel free to grab it all right there are 16 teams that are hard capped at the first or second apron what the heck does that mean David I I don’t know how to explain these things but let me try Okay the first apron hard caps you and starts to limit some of your movement the second apron is really the one that everyone is Deb trying to stay away from so here are and actually I am going to screen share because those of you who are on YouTube you get to see this and Keith Smith who is just a fabulous NBA follow has done a great job with this and so let me see if I can get this up on your screen for you and then if you can read it and follow it while I’m going along with it and maybe it’ll make it a little bit better um for you um actually I should just add this give me one second I’ll do this a little bit better than I’m doing it right now um there that’ll me because I will probably have to reference this multiple times over the next few years and times and that will make it better for all of us every time I do it all right so if if you are over the first apron it’s not the worst thing um but if you use your tax player mid level which is 5.2 million then you become hard CA to the second apron teams that are hard CA to the first apron are PR are limited they can no longer use their tax mid level exception or their non tax playing level exception they cannot use their biannual exception whatever these are but here’s the biggest one they can’t buyer player via signing trade and they can’t sign a player in the buyout market and if they’re going to trade they have to use more than a 100% of salary matching in a trade there’s two impacts of this one is I think indirectly the League’s going to make some player movement very very difficult okay um some of these teams like suddenly the jazs are going to be looking around to make a deal and there’s not going to be very many teams that are suddenly able to make deals because of the fact that people are over the first apron and they have these hard cap circumstances and so suddenly I think deals are going to be hard to be made Co so those are the teams that over the first apron but they have to use more than 100% in salary matching in a trade so another words the Jazz have $37 million of cap space they go get let’s say they go get the Lowry extension done and they’re left with I don’t know like I don’t know what that number is but let’s say it’s somewhere between 17 and $20 million a cap space well now they can relieve somebody from getting out from the first apron the second apron you’re not allowed to sign any extensions your team cannot use the mid-level exception you cannot aggregate two or more player salaries in a trade big deal cannot aggregate two player salaries in a trade you cannot send out cash in a trade and you cannot acquire a player using the taxpayer exception that was created uh for to do in a previous sign and trade you can only if you’re on the second apron you can only resign free agents sign draft picks sign players to minimum and make trades where one player salary is sent out an equal or less salary comes back so you can trade one player for two but they have to bring back less money and you cannot aggregate two or more players on your roster very limiting so those teams that need to get out from this circumstance really might only have one phone call maybe true to Detroit but maybe just one phone call to the Utah Jazz and then the Jazz can start playing around with things and the end thing to do if you know you’re going to be good like San Antonio and Oklahoma City is to pick swap I don’t know whether or not we have the circum St in which we know we’re going to be good soon enough to be able to do this that would be the one question I have is San Antonio and Oklahoma City have played around and grabbed all these pick swaps because they know with their rosters with Victor webban Yama and and Shay gilg Alexander and all those players that they’re going to be good the other thing is we already have so many pix swaps right in 2026 we can only use one pick swap we have the pick swap between Cleveland and Minnesota we can’t pick swap our 2025 pick yet because it’s still protected or our 2026 pick 2027 we have four first round draft picks in theory we could do a pick swap with our pick but are we going to be better than people in 2027 and it doesn’t frankly look like our 2026 pick swap with Cleveland and Minnesota is gonna be worth a lot because it looks like both Cleveland with Donovan resigned and Minnesota will be better than us in 2026 so maybe we could pick swap 2028 we have a Cleveland pick swap 2029 we have our pick Minnesota’s predicted and then 30 we could start pick swapping hopefully will’ll be good by then so it’s an interesting little game the Jazz have played here which I’m not sure is intended but they may they may be in a position where they’re in the cat bird seat in a new system with new rules which ends up giving them the opportunity to be able to suddenly play in a manner that has it so that they are able to profit off this that’s my that’s my one thought if I leave I’m nervous here to take this thing down because if I leave the studio it says leave studio and I’m nervous that that would mean that I end the show and I don’t want to end the show um so I’m cannot figure out how to get the this is really funny I cannot um figure out how I’m supposed to get this oh I know how now I got it there we go I’m back all right so that’s kind of the update on that we’ll see the Jazz did not use her caps based on a der Roan did not use a cap space on a barn to get a pick swap because of the fact that ends up restricting Lowry but they may even after doing Lowry be in the cat bird seat to be able to take in some money from people and get a pick or a swap or something because teams have to get under these hard caps and we’re the one team where it can happen Okay W that was exciting you know it wasn’t exciting after a stellar first night of summer league night two w very good last night ball didn’t move players didn’t play well Sean Shannon said they didn’t think they played hard um not great disappointing um Cody Williams is really interesting I really like Cody Williams Cody Williams showed like it we’re gonna just get used to he showed a flash came off pin down crossed over got to the rack finished the dude is so casual and I don’t think he’s not playing hard I think his body and all of his movements are just so easy and the and athleticism is so natural that it just looks that easy but it doesn’t look like this was actually the book on him of why I was like there’s no when I was calling around the league I was like there’s no way he gets to 10 and people are saying no his workouts aren’t very good he doesn’t look like he play hard he doesn’t seem like he goes hard in his workouts his workouts aren’t very good he’s gonna get to 10 and I was like no way well he got to 10 and maybe that’s the reason is that some of his workouts don’t he you know if you have him in a gym by himself and he’s doing as on zero workout it probably doesn’t entirely look like he’s busting his butt because it doesn’t look like he’s busting his butt out on the court out there so I’m G have to get used to that it’s hard it’s weird to watch if you’re watching him it’s very clear like it’s I’m sure he is playing hard it just doesn’t look it because he’s so I think his body just moves so naturally I do think he could probably play harder like he went to the basket once and Ron Bo was like oh he could have done that with more force and understood the force he needs to do it with um he probably has just never had to do that before so kind of an interesting um little look at things uh from that stand Point uh Collier hit two pull-up jumpers yesterday which I didn’t know he had um I didn’t know that Cody Williams could come off a pin down crossover so you’re beginning to see these flashes in the NBA that you didn’t get to see in college uh filipowski is a really really good passer that’s clear um the NBA shot seems long for him everything’s coming up a little off um and uh on that Kenny Lofton Jr and Darius basley are really interesting to me so Kenny Lofton plays the summer league and he’s really really loud like he catches the ball and he makes a ton of plays and he does all these things and you get super excited about him and he can play with the ball in his hands like Kelly Lin and he can go to the basket and a little bit of my thought when I watch him in summer league is if that’s your guy in the NBA that’s doing those things you’ve got a problem like Kenny lofton’s really good but you better have somebody better than that who does this in the NBA I remember I’ll never forget I was talking to an NBA Scout a battle player and I was like yeah he can do this and he can do that and he can like this was like a 68 guy and I was like he can bring it up and he can pass and he can do all this and the guy and like Scout looked at me and said yeah and if that’s the guy doing those things for you you have a problem and it was a really interesting point like it’s really cool that your fourth guy or fifth guy or your ninth guy has his versatility can do all these things but you better have somebody else who’s doing those things right okay so I actually feel the opposite about Darius basley like Darius basley doesn’t really have a dribble off the drive game he does if he can figure out how to shoot it a little bit he fits perfectly in an NBA roster so my point on Kenny Lofton is he’s got all these skills he’s wildly talented he does all this stuff I can’t entirely Envision how it fits on an NBA roster on the floor with a bunch of other really good players because I’m not sure with all those other really good players I want the ball necessarily going through Kenny Lofton and Kenny Lofton making plays every single time to the point of the Scout if that’s the guy who’s making all your plays on the NBA level you’re in trouble but I like him I mean he’s really skilled Darius basley I feel the opposite about Darius basley I look at I’m like oh he just fits an NBA roster like he could just play like he he’s he’s lanky rotates defensively can guard one through four he’s a pretty decent rebounder he could be an offensive slashing rebounder and if he could bang down a shot or two he’s really a viable NBA player because he fits perfectly on NBA roster because he’s not doing any of those things and I’ve got four guys on the floor that are better at all times on an NBA roster who are doing those other things and I need him to switch one through four defensively and Slash and rebound and do all those kind of things it’s kind of an interesting contrast between those two over playing the contrast a little bit with Kenny L but but it’s an interesting thought for you as you watch a player in summer league and you think to yourself not one of our rookies who are just trying to figure it out the these guys who are trying to find a roster spot and both Kenny Lofton and Darius basley are up July 25th for the first decision on them like I can really easily see Darius basley on an NBA roster and how he fits and how he plays and how he’s valuable and a good roster on all sorts of teams and on Kenny Lofton Jr I have a harder time with that because what’s his role the last thing I’m going to say we’ve gotten into an interesting little thing here having had him around here and that is that we keep trying to reference people as Kelly Alin Kelly Alin is so flipping good we’re really underselling how good Kelly Alin is Kelly Alin is big strong tall amazingly gifted with Incredible passing L Vision he was the 13th pick of an NBA draft for a reason he’s super and we keep trying well Kenny LOF could be Kelly OIC and Kyle philas can be Kelly no k k l beeping great and I think we’re underplaying how hard it is to do what Kelly oin does and how great Kelly linic is and even with that set as great as Kelly Lin is he only plays on average 22 minutes a night so just a thought have a great day I’ll see at the arena we will have the in Arena feed for you as well if you want to listen real time tonight uh go check out my Twitter I’ve got a bunch of uh notes on that on how to do that thanks very much for tuning in this is locked on Jazz your daily podcast in the Utah Jazz on YouTube we send you to locked on sports today on audio search the big 660 for our new show

Cooper Flagg is making waves at USA Basketball and the NBA World is awaiting his arrival. All of a sudden it looks as though 8 different teams could be via for the #1 spot in the draft and the right for Cooper Flagg. The NBA worked to flatten the lottery odds and prevent this from happening but the Utah Jazz may have found themselves is bath tub full of tank.

David Locke, radio voice of the Utah Jazz and Jazz NBA Insider, takes a look at how the Utah Jazz got here and what is the best option for them at this point. In addition, the Utah Jazz still have 37 million in cap space and this may allow them to profit when teams have to deal with the new CBA rules and the only call to make is to the Utah Jazz to free them of their cap burdens

Summer league night two was a tough one for the Utah Jazz youngsters. Locke takes a look at Kenny Lofton Jr. and Darius Bazely and how much easier it is for him to see how Bazely fits into the NBA than Lofton.

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