Amen Thompson and fitting star-shaped pegs into round holes

[Hello everyone! I originally wrote this for the general NBA audience at r /nba, so forgive some of the no-duh stuff in here for Rockets fans. But I was told that you all might enjoy this longform post on Amen Thompson, so here it is. Thanks for reading!]

Did you collect stuff as a kid?

If you were anything like me, you had a bedroom filled with random knickknacks. I had a wooden carving of a Komodo dragon, a replica katana, a gold doubloon supposedly from a pirate ship (it was not), a cutout of Kobe Bryant’s 81-point box score from my local paper, Pokémon cards, and much more.

Individually, these were all incredibly cool (*cut to my wife vigorously shaking her head*). But taken together, they were overwhelming. No piece could shine; there wasn’t enough room. The dragon blocked the full view of the sword, the Pokemon cards were covering up the box score, and the doubloon, neglected and unshined, just looked like a big, rusty penny. The whole presentation was far less than the sum of its component parts, which, again, were awesome.

On a related note: here are the Houston players deserving rotation minutes next year: Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Alperen Şengün, Steven Adams, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Reed Sheppard, Cam Whitmore, Jae’Sean Tate. That is 11 players, excluding quality depth options like Aaron Holiday and Jeff Green.

That’s a lot of shiny talent. Most of those players are still on rookie contracts, too, meaning there’s plenty of room for improvement — but also an unspoken need to put up stats to justify significant contract extensions. Could the team’s fierce competition for minutes, desire for shooting around Şengün, and win-now mentality under coach Ime Udoka squeeze Amen Thompson, the flawed but exciting sophomore?

You know Thompson’s three-pointer was as broken as a lovelytheband song, but it was even worse than you likely realized. For his entire rookie season, he shot just 8-for-58 from deep. By comparison, I counted 11 shots that missed the rim entirely. That’s not a good ratio for a sixth-grader, much less an NBA player. In the league's history, only five other players have attempted at least 50 threes and hit fewer than 15% of them. (It’s probably not worth pointing out that Michael Jordan, Hall of Famer Dennis Johnson, and DeMar DeRozan are three of the other five, so I won’t.)

Teams stashed their center or absolute worst defender on him almost from the get-go. Nearly every three-pointer he took was a practice shot: 57 of his 58 attempts were considered “open” or “wide-open” in the NBA’s tracking data. Yet even the shots that miraculously caught the rim didn’t have an alibi: [click for video of a hideous miss]

Hopefully, he’ll develop a better shot (it certainly can’t get worse), but it’s foolish to assume he’ll approach league average in the next couple of seasons. So why should Houston bother featuring him?

Thompson was so good at nearly every other part of basketball, particularly for a rookie who had seldom faced college or overseas competition before the season. He is one of the most unique players in the NBA and will only get better.

Despite his long-distance troubles, Thompson still hit nearly 60% on twos. His outrageous combination of physical tools propelled him to more favorable areas of the court: two-thirds of his shots occurred at the rim, more than most centers. Most rookies struggle with NBA shotblocking and athleticism when they get to the paint; per Cleaning the Glass, Thompson converted an excellent 67.4% at the hoop, better than Bam Adebayo, Jaylen Brown, or Zion Williamson (!!).

His athleticism stood out even in a league full of standout athletes, but unlike many rookies, he applied it correctly by pushing the ball in transition at every opportunity. According to Synergy, Thompson was in the 96th percentile for the proportion of possessions finished on the break. Defenses can’t sag off of him if he outraces them to the goal: [click here for video]

Thompson’s handle is a little raw, but he’s 21 years old. That’s one of the easiest things for young players to improve. It’s harder to improve passing instincts, and Thompson already possesses those in spades. He’s a quick reactor and excellent floor-mapper: [click here for video]

Plus, who doesn’t love 35-foot bounce passes? [click here for video]

Thompson is a savvy cutter for a player used to having the ball in his hands. He knows defenses are ignoring him. If his mark strays too far, he waits for the opportune time to cut backdoor and dunk things others would’ve laid up: [click for video]

Thompson also had the highest offensive rebounding rate of anyone under 6’8” (min. 500 minutes). He was often stationed in the dunker spot, providing him with plenty of opportunity to chase misses, and he has as good a second leap as anyone in the league, letting him beat opposing bigs to an airborne ball. Thompson has a highlight reel full of nifty putback dunks, but this spinning tip off an airball is an even better illustration of his coordination: [click for video]

He has a nose for the ball, an F1 motor, and the rare ability to chase offensive rebounds without compromising transition defense (and he’s nearly as good a glass-cleaner on that end, too).

Speaking of defense, Thompson was one of the best perimeter rookie defenders we’ve ever seen. He was in the 95th percentile in Defensive EPM (only Tari Eason ranked higher on the Rockets) and led the team in D-LEBRON. Thompson earned Udoka’s trust with his performances on big names, frequently matching up with the likes of Devin Booker, Tyrese Haliburton, Kevin Durant, and Jalen Williams. He posted excellent defensive playmaking numbers, averaging exactly two steals and a block per 36 minutes.

Thompson can guard the full length of the court, and he’s already one of the better screen navigators in the game. Even when he gets brushed, his length and lateral quickness get him right back into the action: [video here]

Despite the new positionless awards voting, in which bigs vacuum up most of the All-Defensive-Team slots, I’d be shocked if Thompson doesn’t get a nod in the next few seasons.

Although Thompson spent most of his life as an on-ball player, the Rockets used him in various ways, from traditional point guard to full-blown center. After Şengün went down with an injury late in the season, Thompson started setting more screens while using the short roll to his advantage. Houston often took advantage of his versatility by making him a hand-off hub at the top, usually with VanVleet and/or Green. He could pick out cutters, hit FVV or Green for open triples, or take the ball to the rack himself. Really, there’s nothing he can’t do!

Oh wait, he can’t shoot. Right.

So how does he fit? On a different team, he’d be treated like the good version of Ben Simmons: play on-ball more, push the team in transition as much as possible, attack the boards, and lock down the other team’s best ballhandler.

But on this crowded Houston roster, Thompson might be fourth in the pecking order behind steady VanVleet, thrilling Green, and post hub Şengün, competing for touches with Sheppard, Brooks, and Whitmore. His defense, rebounding, cutting, screen-setting, and off-ball activity make up for his spacing deficiencies, and he was a big part of Houston’s late-season push for the playoffs, but he’s undoubtedly an untraditional player whose two best roles are currently occupied by superior (for now) teammates. He’s a star-shaped peg trying to fit into a round hole.

Thompson needs more time to accentuate his strengths and mitigate his most glaring weakness, but the Rockets may not give him that. Udoka has vowed to make a playoff push, and two offseasons in a row, they’ve been linked to win-now moves (that never materialized).

Thompson isn’t going to fall out of the rotation, but there are reasons for Udoka not to give him top-six minutes. His current handle and shooting limit him as a point guard, and the Rockets already have Fred VanVleet running the show. The Rockets’ offense was generally worse with Thompson on the court than off, with one major exception: Jabari Smith at small-ball center lineups, which we saw a lot after Şengün’s late-season injury. Those were reasonable offensively and excellent defensively. In those groups, Thompson can act more like a center on offense by screening, rolling, and hovering in the dunker spot while Smith spaces from the three-point line. If he can’t be the point guard, being the sole paint presence is the next best thing.

But when healthy, Houston already has a borderline-All-Star big man in Şengün, so those minutes with Smith at center will be limited unless the Rockets make a move. Şengün’s name has floated in and out of trade rumors since Udoka took over, as the coach has traditionally preferred a more defensive-minded center. Those whispers quieted some after Şengün’s breakout performance last season, but with the Turkish youngster almost certain to ask for a rookie max extension, they’ll likely resurface again.

Don’t get me wrong: I’m also quite high on the indecisive flamingo. In fact, I’m high on nearly every player on the Rockets, individually. But like my scattershot childhood collection, there’s just too much to look at. Houston has so many budding talents that featuring some will inevitably stunt the growth of others, like trees fighting for the same patches of sunlight in a forest. It’s a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless.

Truthfully, I’m not sure how it all shakes out. Outside of the championship contenders’ various trials and travails, the Rockets’ player development and rotation might be the most interesting storyline in the league next season. There are so many interesting configurations to try, and it’s up to Udoka to figure out how to maximize everyone.

But I do know this: the Rockets don’t have a player with a higher ceiling than Amen Thompson. One way or another, I hope Houston puts him in a position to reach it.