In the upcoming days, I'll be taking a look at each key player for the Miami Heat in more depth. I'll be taking a deep dive into the kind of season they just had, what they showed, what they were good at, what still needs to be worked on, what do they need to make a potential leap, and projecting what their season is and should look like. I do this as an article on my Substack, which I'd appreciate if you could check it out! & here, I'll be making a shorter, summary of all the key points!
Today, we're going through the transformation that Duncan Robinson had. You can find the breakdown here!
After a disappointing 2023 season & showing signs of a jump in the playoffs, he "really" took off this season by making improvements in every aspect of his game. He became a completely different player & as a result, has been even more impactful than what he did in 2020.
He expanded his game on all counts to basically stopping him from being solely a 3pt specialist – I wouldn't call him that anymore. He has moved out of that group of players because of his higher usage, role, shot diet & how his play types have adjusted
Tracking stats(since 2020):
- Touches per 36 minutes: 41 -> 44 -> 47 -> 50 -> 50
- Avg seconds per touch: 1.4 -> 1.64 -> 1.57 -> 1.73 -> 2.1
- Avg dribble: 0.42 -> 0.63 -> 0.59 -> 0.82 -> 1.27
As a result this has also meant his 3pt rate dropping a lot;
- 88% -> 85% -> 86% -> 81% -> 71%
This is where he moves out of the specialist role – Hauser(84%), Houstan(85%), Merrill(90%) & now is in a group of Beasley(73%), Grimes(72%), Strus(71%), Donte(69%).
Rim stats
He's now attempting 5.2 2s per 100 & is shooting 58% on them. He has doubled his rim rate! This kind of rim pressure is what puts role players in a higher role. To create shots at the rim, even off ball, & shoot at a high clip is so impactful
There are 21 players that take at least 1 2pt shot & 5 3pt shots within the touch time of 2s. He's 3rd in 2pt% & 8th in 3pt%!
The way he does it is by constantly moving. He's always active as a cutter & a screener, which helps that role. Whether it's backcuts, slips on his screens or timely cuts when the defense isn't paying attention is one of the main ways he's able to generate shots at the rim.
Link to the rim attempts video off cuts
Related to the off-ball movement, it's his ability to beat closeouts this year that "really" stood out. He's doing it with much more confidence. This is where he began to put the ball down more. This is probably "the" thing that has made him more dangerous & more impactful
Link to the beating closeout video
Here are his drives stats per 36 & the % of it passed out
- 2020: 1.1 / 53%
- 2021: 2.1 / 62%
- 2022: 2.5 / 59%
- 2023: 4.6 / 60%
- 2024: 6.7 / 52%
That's a significant difference to what he was doing when he was a starter three years ago & it was so needed that it made the offensive flow much better. That's because of that ability to make plays for others:
The passing isn't something new to him, but now with the combined volume, it's more noticeable. He can easily run around, beat closeouts, draw the defense AND make a play for others whether it's finding the cutter or make a kick. Continuing the advantage is VERY important.
Pick and roll
The most eye popping difference has been the pick & roll stuff. Over 17% of his possessions ended in a PNR. That's wild to think about. This is another reason where it brings him out of the typical shooter/specialist role & into more of an all-around role player.
Some players with >8% freq: Beasley, Hield, Grayson, Keegan, Grimes, Huerter. & here are some players with 15-18%: Scottie, Keldon, Caruso, Suggs. That's a better company to be in.
With the Heat's context, that's what they needed & he did a pretty good job adjusting to the completely different role. He was able to take guys off dribble & get to the rim even when he was the one creating. That's the most significant flash of his new improved game
The overall PNR game has been fun too – he's re using screens, forcing defenders to go over, hesitates, surveys the floor. He doesn't look like he can't handle it. But there were struggles once the defense did commit or it was a better defender. When he had "too" much responsibility or asked to do more vs more pressure, that's when mistakes piled up. He can't improvise yet or make plays vs an aggressive defense.
Combining all of the additions with the skill that he has always been one of the best is the passing. With the confidence to put the ball down, run more PNRs, beat closeouts, elite off-ball, he now is able to use all of that to make higher level reads. There were plays out of the PNR that I didn't think he was capable of making. Again all about rounding out his game.
As a passer, he has always been elite. Outside of volume, of course, he even graded out pretty reasonably against on-ball players. He's a smart passer. Makes all kinds of different passes with ease. Sees passing windows quickly. The reaction time & processing speed WITH the accuracy is on point.
3pt shooting
He also had the bounce back season from 3pt. His shooting will always remain the number 1 thing about him because he's that elite of a shooter. The way he gets those 3s, how he gets open, the constant movement, the array of moves to do so & accuracy with it is what makes him great.
The off-ball 3pt shooting from him is honestly so fun to watch
The use of ghost screens, the constant running around, screening, relocating. It does feel like he's been used in that way more rather than simply be a handoff guy. I noticed he's also been better at finding spaces.
Link to his off-ball 3pt video
Wrapping up & thoughts on next season
So, overall, he had his best season yet. Don't just fall for looking at his box score stats! He did have a significantly different, higher impact.
This is all assuming his back stuff isn't an issue. That alone changes "everything" because back issues for shooters can be bad. This is assuming, he's going to be Duncan.
With all of the improvements, he should start. There's no reason that he shouldn't. He fits with the starters better. He fits with better players. He was the better fit "before" the improvements & additions to his game. He will now be an even better fit. The old skillset combined with this Duncan is fixing a lot of the issues they had with him back then.
Before, he wasn't getting shots at the rim. He wasn't making plays for others. He wasn't doing something with the ball. The Heat were very restricted in what they could do with him. His improvements expand that. They can run what they run before AND add stuff to make them even more versatile offensively
The player he has turned to is the exact player you want around Butler & Bam but oddly enough his MPG with them has dropped
19.2 -> 18.2 -> 17.9 -> 3.0 -> 12.6
That should be much higher. Duncan "is" a role player that is dependent on playing with better players to be maximised.
A maximised Duncan also maximises others. This should be an easy choice. Now, I'm also wondering what kind of improvements we'll see now. These were the biggest jumps he could make, so now it's all about refining it, making it more consistent. Consistency is the next step for Duncan to be even more important & impactful
This was such a fun season to watch from Duncan considering everything else in his career.
by SimplyBallin
4 Comments
Lead us 55!
start him please he works way better w the starting unit and has more size for defense… him and herro are both not great there so might as well go w fit
I’m sure Tobin will appreciate this write up for his next video. Good stuff
Fuck yeah baby, a dose Duncan straight into the bloodstream!!