Heat beat Sixers just a few months ago, but now the Sixers are in the inner circle and the Heat are out?
Look I fucking loved PJ, but he isn’t THAT good
moneybooy
Raptors overrated af. Heat are definitely a tier higher than them
Kitdee75
Why do people post articles with a frickin paywall. Copy and paste the list or don’t post it at all.
Nevermind it’s posted in the comments
UTM20
It’s time for our 13th annual Tiers of the NBA — my alternative to power rankings. With exceptions both happy (the San Antonio Spurs from the mid-1990s through the Kawhi Leonard disaster, perhaps the Golden State Warriors now) and sad (KANGGGZZZZZ!!!), team-building flows on a soft boom-and-bust cycle: stars rise, peak and then fall — taking teams along the same path.
Grouping teams helps clarify who is where on that spectrum — and which teams might be on the verge of moving up or down.
Order within tiers does not matter.
**THE INNER CIRCLE**
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
LA Clippers
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Denver Nuggets
* The mild surprise here might be the Sixers and Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns and (if you slip on Ted Lasso’s rose-tinted sunglasses) whatever the hell is about to unfold in Brooklyn.
Phoenix fans have a gripe. The Suns diced up the Nuggets in the 2021 conference semifinals and upended the Clippers — without Leonard — one round later. Their idiosyncratic offense, almost entirely dependent on midrange jumpers, performed at league-best levels in last season’s playoffs until the final five games of their debacle against the Dallas Mavericks — a sputtering you might chalk up to some COVID outbreak and dissension surrounding Deandre Ayton that may have since been buried under a pile of cash.
Their defense collapsed in both postseason series, but an optimist might excuse that too; the New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix’s first-round opponent, were built to brutalize the Suns’ weak rebounding, and there is no shame in falling victim to Luka Doncic’s slow-pivoting, always-grinning brand of torture.
They lost only one key player, and even that guy — Jae Crowder — is still on the team. They’ll either get someone for Crowder, or ask him to return as a backup. The Suns are likely replacing a C-level shooter in Crowder with an A-plus one in Cameron Johnson, which should result in more 3s and wider driving lanes — modern kicks-in-the-butt for their old-school offense.
Johnson and Mikal Bridges should shoulder more off-the-bounce creation. (Bridges should jack more 3s.) Ayton is the most obvious pathway to stylistic variety via post-ups, emphatic rim runs and free throws.
Dario Saric is back to fill minutes at both power forward and center, and the deep bench is solid. If they are healthy and cohesive, the Suns should win bundles of regular-season games.
But the West has fortified around them after a two-season interregnum. The Nuggets and Clippers are healthy. The Warriors should be better, provided contract extension dramas — Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson — don’t open fissures. The Green-Poole practice altercation Wednesday — and Green facing potential discipline — brought a discouraging deja vu. I trust Golden State to handle it.
James Wiseman’s verticality adds a dream dimension to Stephen Curry’s pick-and-roll game (and Green’s lob passing), but Golden State’s repeat potential goes well beyond Wiseman.
Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga are ready for more. Poole is still improving at 23, and will either be playing for a new contract or with the security of one. Wiggins banked a year learning the fast-twitch nuances of playing alongside Curry, Green and Thompson — the winks and nods and cuts. Thompson should be sturdier in Year 2 after catastrophic injuries.
(PS: Curry shot 43.7% last season — 38% from deep, 52.7% on 2s. For normal people, that’s fine. For Curry, that’s below average. His raw scoring may not jump if Golden State coasts, but I’m expecting a monster per-minute Curry season — almost prime MVP-level.)
Between Robert Sarver, Ayton and Crowder, there is a lot going on in Phoenix, and the top of the West allows for nothing less than complete unified focus. Chris Paul turns 38 in May. The Suns have squeezed every drop from their offense, and may not have enough ingredients without a trade to inject meaningful diversification.
They have the picks and salary to get in on just about any star who comes available.
• This is the most important season in Clippers history. It is somehow already Year 4 of the Paul George-Leonard era. They fell apart in the bubble in Year 1, and injuries short-circuited Years 2 and 3 — though not before the Clips ended the conference finals curse (and the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert era in Utah) in 2021.
George and Leonard are healthy. In cascading series of transactions, the Clips used front-office smarts and Steve Ballmer’s money to build the league’s deepest roster. I’m not sure any team in history has had this many wings, including a half-dozen legit two-way guys. Ivica Zubac is the only center guaranteed to make the roster, though the Clips will add a backup — either Moses Brown (on a non-guaranteed deal) or some veteran ring-chaser.
That lack of size might hurt against Nikola Jokic, but I’m not sure the Clippers do (or should) fear any other big enough to care. They’ll go five-out, and dare bigs to chase them. John Wall with even 85% of his peak speed is a great fit in that alignment and should run a nifty pick-and-roll with the sticky-handed Zubac.
• I get the Denver skepticism. In back-to-back postseasons, its defense wilted against Phoenix and Golden State.
The quality and scheme of the Nuggets’ defense has fluctuated wildly over the Jokic era, and they have to prove they can guard consistently with all three of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on the floor. They took an important step in humiliating the Clippers in the 2020 bubble conference semifinals, but no one knows quite how to project based off Orlando.
Denver was injury-riddled and bereft of perimeter defense in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and Jokic was fatigued from carrying the offense alongside (mostly) career backups. Murray is a gritty, underrated defender. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are hand-in-glove fits, and give Denver the ability to sit Porter — shifting Aaron Gordon to power forward — to cinch up the defense.
Denver is betting tighter perimeter defense — slithering around picks — will make Jokic’s job easier, and that the return of Murray to run the offense will have the two-time MVP fresher in the postseason. The Warriors and Curry were a nightmare matchup, hunting Jokic over and over, but Jokic has done enough for Denver to upend other powerful offenses in the playoffs.
Golden State still looms, of course, but the healthy version of this Denver team is better equipped to face the West titans. Offense matters as much as defense, and Denver has all the answers there.
Jeff Green and Davon Reed are dependable two-way reserves. Bones Hyland is the best kind of brazen. Christian Braun is ready. Zeke Nnaji — perhaps Denver’s most switchable defender outside Gordon — has shined in camp, perhaps (hopefully?) supplanting DeAndre Jordan as backup center and opening up a possible spot-minutes pairing with Jokic.
We only saw 117 minutes of the Murray-Gordon-Porter-Jokic quartet after the Nuggets acquired Gordon in 2021, but Denver’s utter dominance in that stretch stuck with me.
All is contingent on Porter’s back holding up.
• Boston has the talent, depth and shared toughness to withstand the Ime Udoka crisis and a medium-term injury to Robert Williams III — interior pillar of what became the league’s best defense (and among the best ever) once Udoka shifted Williams III into an off-ball rover role.
The last three rounds of Boston’s postseason run were uneven, its offense aimless and turnover prone. But fatigue sapped them, and Boston’s demolition of the league over the last 50 games of the regular season should carry just as much weight in projecting them. Malcolm Brogdon is the supplementary ball-handler they needed. Joe Mazzulla, Udoka’s replacement, is the real deal — a tactician. The Sam Hauser hype appears to have been justified.
• The Bucks took Boston to Game 7 without Khris Middleton — perhaps their second-best player, and inarguably their most important ballhandler. Can anyone beat them four times in seven tries when Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are healthy? Middleton shouldn’t miss much time recovering from wrist surgery, sources say.
Critics see ricketiness on the outskirts: broken-down Wesley Matthews, George Hill, Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka and Joe Ingles — coming off a torn ACL. Boston torching Grayson Allen is fresh in their memories. The Bucks have never found their P.J. Tucker replacement — the tweener forward to beef up Giannis-at-center lineups.
I’m optimistic Lopez and Matthews have another year of 3-and-D in them. Bobby Portis is squarely in his prime, and works in lineups of all sizes. Pat Connaughton is really good, and has a case to start over Matthews. (I’d expect the Bucks to keep Matthews there for now.)
Allen can’t guard Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but he’s a nice player. Ingles was never dependent on athleticism, and adds a ballhandling, lob-lofting dimension. Keep an eye on Jevon Carter and Jordan Nwora; Antetokounmpo will make Carter look good.
The Bucks have internal interest in Crowder as that Tucker replacement after getting into the recent Jerami Grant and Bojan Bogdanovic discussions, sources say. They will search all season for one more piece.
I came away from that Boston series feeling Antetokounmpo — having nearly beaten a great team almost alone — was coming to lay waste to the league this season.
Friendly-Thought-973
Having 6ers and Denver in the top tier but no Phoenix is crazy.
FLUSH_THE_TRUMP
I won’t believe the 76ers are a top tier team until they make an ECF. I’m taking the under
_Jetto_
Ya PHX depth is absolute DOGshit compared to two years ago(finals run)
PearlsB4Swoon
Really had to drop the nets and lakers by name for extra clicks. Sports journalism is so lame now
PaulWilliams12
Last year I got piled on because I said he was in sleeping on Golden State. This year I think I’ll go with Cleveland. Indiana might also bunch above their tier.
browndude10
>• With the Seattle Mariners in the playoffs, the Kings officially own the longest postseason drought in major U.S. sports — 16 years and counting, one of the truly humiliating and remarkable achievements in modern sports history in a league in which 53% of participants make the playoffs every year.
>It’s honestly impressive. Household pets could point to random names on draft and free agency boards every summer, and come up with one playoff team over 16 tries. If the Kings get to 20 years, they should be relegated for one season — and replaced with the G League Ignite.
Oof
EsotericPotato
Jesus, that’s some effusive praise for Ant by Lowe… Two-way superstar this season and making an all-defensive team in the next three years? I think even the most delusional Twolves fans (me) would be pleasantly surprised by either of those coming to pass, let alone both.
MindofShadow
> If the Pacers move Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, they’ll be the worst team in the league.
It says a lot about how little talent we have that moving those two would be losing a lot lol
ChamberDavs
I think an underrated aspect about the Bucks offseason is that because we retained so many guys, there’s no need to worry about chemistry and could help us get off to a good start early in the year
SquimJim
I think my tiers are
1. Favorites: Bucks, Warriors, Clips, C’s
2. Contenders: Heat, Sixers, Nugs, Grizz, and Nets
4. You Need To Do Everything You Can For Wemby or Scoot: Everyone else
5. Fuck You: Lakers
The_Nutz16
Are all 97 comments just op’s analysis?
Holy shit, that must have taken forever to put together.
50YearSword
I like that the word “whatever” was used to describe the position of 3 different Raptors. Very accurate. One potential lineup would be accurately described as
Guard – FVV
Whatever – OG
Whatever – Scottie
Whatever – Pascal
Whatever – Precious
Pandamonium-23
His comment about Jose Alvarado being a cat burglar who plays basketball killed me
dakdiscgolf
Memphis seems really low here
Goooose
The disrespect for the wizards is incredible. He says they have the depth but are stuck in purgatory? There are potentially 3 all stars in the team and he has them below Orlando?
Terrible take.
Eat-Depay-Love
I don’t see the Raps being a top 4 seed. They’re a solid and well coached team that will struggle to score. I think the vaccination mandate helped them last year with home court and I expect Barnes to have a sophomore slump (which a lot of rookies do). The East is better and I see them as a play in team
RedTeeRex
Shoutout op for posting entire article in comments
lionheart4k
Lowe absolutely loves to suck off denver. I think he does it for access to the organization but that’s just me
RRJC10
I really think Atlanta is a notch above Toronto honestly or at they very least on the same level with along with Cleveland. I understand Cleveland and Atlanta have more “figuring out to do” and Toronto is running it back from last year, but the talent on Cleveland and Atlanta is really good. It’s crazy two of those three teams will likely be in the play-in.
Washington should also be on the same level as the Knicks. I think they’ll be ahead of them if no teams face major injuries.
bbuucckk
Thank you OP for copy/pasting the article in the comments so we lowly peasants can have access to it.
26 Comments
Paywall
Heat beat Sixers just a few months ago, but now the Sixers are in the inner circle and the Heat are out?
Look I fucking loved PJ, but he isn’t THAT good
Raptors overrated af. Heat are definitely a tier higher than them
Why do people post articles with a frickin paywall. Copy and paste the list or don’t post it at all.
Nevermind it’s posted in the comments
It’s time for our 13th annual Tiers of the NBA — my alternative to power rankings. With exceptions both happy (the San Antonio Spurs from the mid-1990s through the Kawhi Leonard disaster, perhaps the Golden State Warriors now) and sad (KANGGGZZZZZ!!!), team-building flows on a soft boom-and-bust cycle: stars rise, peak and then fall — taking teams along the same path.
Grouping teams helps clarify who is where on that spectrum — and which teams might be on the verge of moving up or down.
Order within tiers does not matter.
**THE INNER CIRCLE**
Golden State Warriors
Milwaukee Bucks
LA Clippers
Boston Celtics
Philadelphia 76ers
Denver Nuggets
* The mild surprise here might be the Sixers and Nuggets over the Phoenix Suns and (if you slip on Ted Lasso’s rose-tinted sunglasses) whatever the hell is about to unfold in Brooklyn.
Phoenix fans have a gripe. The Suns diced up the Nuggets in the 2021 conference semifinals and upended the Clippers — without Leonard — one round later. Their idiosyncratic offense, almost entirely dependent on midrange jumpers, performed at league-best levels in last season’s playoffs until the final five games of their debacle against the Dallas Mavericks — a sputtering you might chalk up to some COVID outbreak and dissension surrounding Deandre Ayton that may have since been buried under a pile of cash.
Their defense collapsed in both postseason series, but an optimist might excuse that too; the New Orleans Pelicans, Phoenix’s first-round opponent, were built to brutalize the Suns’ weak rebounding, and there is no shame in falling victim to Luka Doncic’s slow-pivoting, always-grinning brand of torture.
They lost only one key player, and even that guy — Jae Crowder — is still on the team. They’ll either get someone for Crowder, or ask him to return as a backup. The Suns are likely replacing a C-level shooter in Crowder with an A-plus one in Cameron Johnson, which should result in more 3s and wider driving lanes — modern kicks-in-the-butt for their old-school offense.
Johnson and Mikal Bridges should shoulder more off-the-bounce creation. (Bridges should jack more 3s.) Ayton is the most obvious pathway to stylistic variety via post-ups, emphatic rim runs and free throws.
Dario Saric is back to fill minutes at both power forward and center, and the deep bench is solid. If they are healthy and cohesive, the Suns should win bundles of regular-season games.
But the West has fortified around them after a two-season interregnum. The Nuggets and Clippers are healthy. The Warriors should be better, provided contract extension dramas — Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson — don’t open fissures. The Green-Poole practice altercation Wednesday — and Green facing potential discipline — brought a discouraging deja vu. I trust Golden State to handle it.
James Wiseman’s verticality adds a dream dimension to Stephen Curry’s pick-and-roll game (and Green’s lob passing), but Golden State’s repeat potential goes well beyond Wiseman.
Moses Moody and Jonathan Kuminga are ready for more. Poole is still improving at 23, and will either be playing for a new contract or with the security of one. Wiggins banked a year learning the fast-twitch nuances of playing alongside Curry, Green and Thompson — the winks and nods and cuts. Thompson should be sturdier in Year 2 after catastrophic injuries.
(PS: Curry shot 43.7% last season — 38% from deep, 52.7% on 2s. For normal people, that’s fine. For Curry, that’s below average. His raw scoring may not jump if Golden State coasts, but I’m expecting a monster per-minute Curry season — almost prime MVP-level.)
Between Robert Sarver, Ayton and Crowder, there is a lot going on in Phoenix, and the top of the West allows for nothing less than complete unified focus. Chris Paul turns 38 in May. The Suns have squeezed every drop from their offense, and may not have enough ingredients without a trade to inject meaningful diversification.
They have the picks and salary to get in on just about any star who comes available.
• This is the most important season in Clippers history. It is somehow already Year 4 of the Paul George-Leonard era. They fell apart in the bubble in Year 1, and injuries short-circuited Years 2 and 3 — though not before the Clips ended the conference finals curse (and the Donovan Mitchell-Rudy Gobert era in Utah) in 2021.
George and Leonard are healthy. In cascading series of transactions, the Clips used front-office smarts and Steve Ballmer’s money to build the league’s deepest roster. I’m not sure any team in history has had this many wings, including a half-dozen legit two-way guys. Ivica Zubac is the only center guaranteed to make the roster, though the Clips will add a backup — either Moses Brown (on a non-guaranteed deal) or some veteran ring-chaser.
That lack of size might hurt against Nikola Jokic, but I’m not sure the Clippers do (or should) fear any other big enough to care. They’ll go five-out, and dare bigs to chase them. John Wall with even 85% of his peak speed is a great fit in that alignment and should run a nifty pick-and-roll with the sticky-handed Zubac.
• I get the Denver skepticism. In back-to-back postseasons, its defense wilted against Phoenix and Golden State.
The quality and scheme of the Nuggets’ defense has fluctuated wildly over the Jokic era, and they have to prove they can guard consistently with all three of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. on the floor. They took an important step in humiliating the Clippers in the 2020 bubble conference semifinals, but no one knows quite how to project based off Orlando.
Denver was injury-riddled and bereft of perimeter defense in both the 2021 and 2022 seasons, and Jokic was fatigued from carrying the offense alongside (mostly) career backups. Murray is a gritty, underrated defender. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are hand-in-glove fits, and give Denver the ability to sit Porter — shifting Aaron Gordon to power forward — to cinch up the defense.
Denver is betting tighter perimeter defense — slithering around picks — will make Jokic’s job easier, and that the return of Murray to run the offense will have the two-time MVP fresher in the postseason. The Warriors and Curry were a nightmare matchup, hunting Jokic over and over, but Jokic has done enough for Denver to upend other powerful offenses in the playoffs.
Golden State still looms, of course, but the healthy version of this Denver team is better equipped to face the West titans. Offense matters as much as defense, and Denver has all the answers there.
Jeff Green and Davon Reed are dependable two-way reserves. Bones Hyland is the best kind of brazen. Christian Braun is ready. Zeke Nnaji — perhaps Denver’s most switchable defender outside Gordon — has shined in camp, perhaps (hopefully?) supplanting DeAndre Jordan as backup center and opening up a possible spot-minutes pairing with Jokic.
We only saw 117 minutes of the Murray-Gordon-Porter-Jokic quartet after the Nuggets acquired Gordon in 2021, but Denver’s utter dominance in that stretch stuck with me.
All is contingent on Porter’s back holding up.
• Boston has the talent, depth and shared toughness to withstand the Ime Udoka crisis and a medium-term injury to Robert Williams III — interior pillar of what became the league’s best defense (and among the best ever) once Udoka shifted Williams III into an off-ball rover role.
The last three rounds of Boston’s postseason run were uneven, its offense aimless and turnover prone. But fatigue sapped them, and Boston’s demolition of the league over the last 50 games of the regular season should carry just as much weight in projecting them. Malcolm Brogdon is the supplementary ball-handler they needed. Joe Mazzulla, Udoka’s replacement, is the real deal — a tactician. The Sam Hauser hype appears to have been justified.
• The Bucks took Boston to Game 7 without Khris Middleton — perhaps their second-best player, and inarguably their most important ballhandler. Can anyone beat them four times in seven tries when Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are healthy? Middleton shouldn’t miss much time recovering from wrist surgery, sources say.
Critics see ricketiness on the outskirts: broken-down Wesley Matthews, George Hill, Brook Lopez, Serge Ibaka and Joe Ingles — coming off a torn ACL. Boston torching Grayson Allen is fresh in their memories. The Bucks have never found their P.J. Tucker replacement — the tweener forward to beef up Giannis-at-center lineups.
I’m optimistic Lopez and Matthews have another year of 3-and-D in them. Bobby Portis is squarely in his prime, and works in lineups of all sizes. Pat Connaughton is really good, and has a case to start over Matthews. (I’d expect the Bucks to keep Matthews there for now.)
Allen can’t guard Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, but he’s a nice player. Ingles was never dependent on athleticism, and adds a ballhandling, lob-lofting dimension. Keep an eye on Jevon Carter and Jordan Nwora; Antetokounmpo will make Carter look good.
The Bucks have internal interest in Crowder as that Tucker replacement after getting into the recent Jerami Grant and Bojan Bogdanovic discussions, sources say. They will search all season for one more piece.
I came away from that Boston series feeling Antetokounmpo — having nearly beaten a great team almost alone — was coming to lay waste to the league this season.
Having 6ers and Denver in the top tier but no Phoenix is crazy.
I won’t believe the 76ers are a top tier team until they make an ECF. I’m taking the under
Ya PHX depth is absolute DOGshit compared to two years ago(finals run)
Really had to drop the nets and lakers by name for extra clicks. Sports journalism is so lame now
Last year I got piled on because I said he was in sleeping on Golden State. This year I think I’ll go with Cleveland. Indiana might also bunch above their tier.
>• With the Seattle Mariners in the playoffs, the Kings officially own the longest postseason drought in major U.S. sports — 16 years and counting, one of the truly humiliating and remarkable achievements in modern sports history in a league in which 53% of participants make the playoffs every year.
>It’s honestly impressive. Household pets could point to random names on draft and free agency boards every summer, and come up with one playoff team over 16 tries. If the Kings get to 20 years, they should be relegated for one season — and replaced with the G League Ignite.
Oof
Jesus, that’s some effusive praise for Ant by Lowe… Two-way superstar this season and making an all-defensive team in the next three years? I think even the most delusional Twolves fans (me) would be pleasantly surprised by either of those coming to pass, let alone both.
> If the Pacers move Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, they’ll be the worst team in the league.
It says a lot about how little talent we have that moving those two would be losing a lot lol
I think an underrated aspect about the Bucks offseason is that because we retained so many guys, there’s no need to worry about chemistry and could help us get off to a good start early in the year
I think my tiers are
1. Favorites: Bucks, Warriors, Clips, C’s
2. Contenders: Heat, Sixers, Nugs, Grizz, and Nets
3. Punchers Chance: Mavs, Pels, Wolves, Suns, Raps, Hawks, and Cavs
4. You Need To Do Everything You Can For Wemby or Scoot: Everyone else
5. Fuck You: Lakers
Are all 97 comments just op’s analysis?
Holy shit, that must have taken forever to put together.
I like that the word “whatever” was used to describe the position of 3 different Raptors. Very accurate. One potential lineup would be accurately described as
Guard – FVV
Whatever – OG
Whatever – Scottie
Whatever – Pascal
Whatever – Precious
His comment about Jose Alvarado being a cat burglar who plays basketball killed me
Memphis seems really low here
The disrespect for the wizards is incredible. He says they have the depth but are stuck in purgatory? There are potentially 3 all stars in the team and he has them below Orlando?
Terrible take.
I don’t see the Raps being a top 4 seed. They’re a solid and well coached team that will struggle to score. I think the vaccination mandate helped them last year with home court and I expect Barnes to have a sophomore slump (which a lot of rookies do). The East is better and I see them as a play in team
Shoutout op for posting entire article in comments
Lowe absolutely loves to suck off denver. I think he does it for access to the organization but that’s just me
I really think Atlanta is a notch above Toronto honestly or at they very least on the same level with along with Cleveland. I understand Cleveland and Atlanta have more “figuring out to do” and Toronto is running it back from last year, but the talent on Cleveland and Atlanta is really good. It’s crazy two of those three teams will likely be in the play-in.
Washington should also be on the same level as the Knicks. I think they’ll be ahead of them if no teams face major injuries.
Thank you OP for copy/pasting the article in the comments so we lowly peasants can have access to it.
He lost his mind.