https://www.poundingtherock.com/2022/11/11/23451843/what-history-tells-us-about-late-first-round-draft-picks
Really good article on the nature of value received from the bottom third of the first round in an average draft. Some good food for thought when we’re all trying to figure out what’s reasonable value for a guy like Jacob, and trying to understand the Spurs perspective of accumulating late firsts for the next few years.
Shows that San Antonio absolutely is awesome at drafting, and that finding solid contributors that late is a heck of a task. But that there’s definitely still plenty of Premier players that do slip through the cracks and that list would be significantly larger if you include second round picks as well.
by paxusromanus811
2 Comments
We’ve gotten crazy value from 2 29th picks. 2 swaps, 2 protected picks and 2 unprotected picks.
Its an interesting read. There are significant factors that cannot be truly evaluated and variable – like, how good is ATL going to be in 25-27? Will the Bulls pick convey and if so, when? How deep will any given draft be that far into the future?
You could do a similar study with mid FRPs and I would be curious to see the results – how statistically does 10-20 perform next to 20-30?