A Confusing Quarter Season: Let’s Talk About The Raptors. The Good. The Bad. The Confusing.

The Raptors are the most confusing team of the 2022/23 season, full stop. They’re not the most surprising nor are they the most disappointing. But they are confusing when one factors in where they were last season.

The Raptors finished 5th last season with the Rookie of the Year, 2 All-Stars, albeit one of whom struggled to keep up after leading the league in minutes, and had higher ambitions after a relatively successful bounceback from the Tampa Bay struggles. Needless to say, with a record of 13-14 and a dismal road performance of 3-11, there is room to contemplate why the Raptors are the way they are right now.

Let’s just get one thing out of the way, because I’m sure people will bring it up: Yes, the Raptors are better in the standings and Win/Loss compared to last season despite a much more difficult start…or at least they were until recently.

By Game 27, the 2021/22 team was hovering around .500 with a 13/14 record and looking in very much the same predicament they’re currently in, yet that team went on to nearly win 50 games despite many of the same weaknesses i.e. a lack of a backup point guard and no true center. However, that record and start requires some context.

For one, the Raptors were missing Siakam until the 11th game of the season and he was rusty to starting, most notable in his second game where he scored a mere 8 points. While the Raptors did lose Pascal for part of the season, to put it mildly, Siakam has been anything but off this season and as we’ll get into later, he has carried this team to several key wins and is a lock for All-NBA 3rd team barring a collapse or an unexpected rise from another team’s star player. Even with his unbelievable play this season, the Raptors are still struggling to win games compared to last season, and during his absence for part of this season, the Raptors still managed to go 50/50 while he was gone…only to struggle just as bad, if not worse when he returned.

For another, there was something concrete to work towards last season. Namely, Scottie Barnes being the surprise that he was and his lengthy, hard-earned campaign for Rookie of the Year. It was a triumph in of itself that he won the award and while the Raptors eventually lost to the 76ers, it was a development season that was ripe for building upon.

Unlike other teams with more tumultuous offseason moves such as the Timberwolves trading for Gobert or the Hawks acquiring a second All-Star guard, much of the same players were retained by the Raptors and with a young group of players in Scottie Barnes, Precious Achiuwa and O.G. Anunoby, coupled with arguably the biggest offseason signing in Otto Porter Jr., there was room for the team to grow internally and address some of the key problems from the last season, namely the atrocious bench and below average 3-point scoring as well as the lack of ball movement. There were holes to address, the starting lineup lacked a rim protector but said holes could be filled over time once the front office got to see the team they’d put together in a pivotal year with Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. playing for a new contract.

Needless to say, that has not happened. The outlook could change if the team goes on a streak of either variety but as of right now, this season, there doesn’t seem like a clear direction for the Raptors. They’re essentially in the The dreaded NBA No Man’s Land the Paul-George-less Pacers were for years.

It’s true that injuries were a huge part of the team’s middling record early on – Precious Achiuwa and Otto Porter Jr. are still MIA and Juancho is out until January – but with all the starters back and a recent move towards having Christian Koloko in the starting lineup, things simply don’t look or feel right, figuratively and literally; no one looks like they’re having fun right now and it shows with how boring even their wins have been of late.

In many regards, comparing the 2023 Raptors’ records to the prior seasons is an excuse for the production on the floor or lack thereof. Unrealistic as it may be for every player to make a leap, the youth on the team and need for certain roles to be filled i.e. the big man, the backup guard(s), the bench scorer and a key pickup has been persistent problems, none of which have been addressed.

But before we venture more into the negative, let’s talk about some of the positives this season.

# The Good:

**All-Spicy, All-NBA**

Pascal Siakam said his goal this season was to be a Top 5 player in the league and, with the way he’s been playing of late, he’s not far off.

Pascal has been unbelievable this season, averaging 25/9/7 and hasn’t missed a step since coming back from a groin injury. His mid-range has been excellent, his passing and playmaking is better than some of the best guards in the league and he’s doing all of this while playing some of the best defense of his career. Me might not be the team’s best defender, but he is without a doubt the epitome of a two-way wing.

Siakam being at an All-NBA level to start the season was an unexpected surprise for anyone who thought he was already his peak, and while his 3-point shooting has come back to earth, for a moment it looked like he finally had everything he needed to reach said goal. The Raptors may be in a rough patch right now, but that is by no means the fault of or the result of a lack of effort from P-Skills.

There really isn’t much to say, Siakam has been the one undeniably great part about this season. No caveats, no negatives to note, the spice is flowing ever free with Siakam at the Raptors helm. Quite the contrast from where he started as a role player picked so late into the draft.

**OG Leap Year**

You remember how Raptors fans would joke about how this would be the year OG breaks out? Well it happened the same year everyone expected him to just be who he is, one of the best 3 and D wings in the league when healthy, with no jump in his performance.

Not only has OG been healthy this season, making every minute count with an impressive Defensive Player of the Year campaign by holding some of the best players in the league to career lows in both shooting percentages and shots taken (Donovan Mitchell’s streak of double digit games was broken,in large part, by OG guarding him) and holding the highest averages for steals, but he’s doing so while bringing home around 20 points per game. Granted, part of that was due to the absence of Pascal Siakam due to his groin injury but even when he returned, Anunoby still managed to get enough shots in to be a strong consideration for the 1B to Pascal’s 1A…

…however, there is one worrying thing about OG’s play right now, and that is how his 3-point shooting has fallen off of a cliff. Not only is he shooting the ball less but he’s making less of them; going from last season’s respectable 36% on over 6 3s to 33% on a little under 5 is both shocking and ties a career-low for him, and it’s well below his career average. Three-point shooting has in general been a big problem for the Raptors and while a certain other player has gotten a lot of flak for it, OG has remained relatively unscathed despite him being appalling from beyond the arc of late; in the last 10 games, OG Anunoby has been shooting 28% from 3 on 4 attempts per game.

Still, when OG is giving as much effort as he has on defense, one can’t fault him too much for forgoing the 3 in 3 & D.

He’s got to start making his 3s though, right? Because if not, this is going to get even worse…

**Koloko Letting the Paint Dry**

I was pretty vocal about [not liking Koloko](https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/comments/xtakiq/a_belated_look_at_torontos_2022_offseason_grading/) as the draft choice by the Raptors, mostly because I felt that, with the general size of the team, that the more pertinent problem facing this team was its guard rotation, as well as Koloko’s age and limited offense resulting in him havning a lower ceiling compared to other players in the draft that were available in the range he was picked in. Lo and behold, Koloko has proven me wrong and shown what a center like him can do in limited minutes…sort of.

You can look up how terrific the Raptors defense has been with/out Christian on the floor this season but with him on the court, the Raptors are getting their opponents to turn the ball over more (19% vs. 15%), deterring players from getting into the paint/preventing them from easily scoring in it (37 points in the paint vs. 48) and just generally making the Raptors a better defensive team (97 vs 115 defensive rating). He has gotten into foul trouble on occasion, part of which is his own fault, part of which is just the general rookie whistle but you don’t need stats to see the impact he makes when he’s on the floor. He’s a smart defensive player and, though lacking the NBA body right now, Koloko has the athleticism to step out to the perimeter if need be.

However, Koloko has exacerbated a significant issue with the offense, namely the lack of shooting outside of the paint. I said it before and I’ll say it again: Koloko’s ceiling looks much more like a long and more athletic Clint Capela than it does Karl-Anthony Towns if he learned how to defend or even Myles Turner, and while he could eventually become league average to help space the paint, he’s not aiding with the ongoing spacing issues this team suffers from.

It doesn’t help that the Raptors don’t run any plays for him or use him very often in the pick & roll compared to when they do that for Fred and Pascal, doubly so since Koloko is smart about when to cut to the rim for an alley-oop. While he’ll occasionally get a lob or go to the line via a foul while cleaning up/grabbing an offensive rebound, he’s not exactly a major threat at the rim right now. In time, he’ll get the NBA body and be able to bang more in the paint or even get in some bully ball during his minutes, but while he’s been a productive rookie, the biggest thing he’s done has shown how effective the right kind of center can do wonders even with Nick Nurse’s switch-heavy schemes (more on that later when we get into the team’s direction).

So Koloko is definitely a great pick for what he brings, he’s arguably the steal of the draft or in contention for that title between him and Andrew Nembhard. But his limitations offensively were a fair observation at the time and have been a major issue for the team as of late.

Speaking of offensive limitations…

# The Bad

**Fred VanVleet Can’t VanBeat His Man**

I almost feel like this one shouldn’t even be brought up beyond a mention solely because it’s been discussed to death. Be it Raptors fans or fans from other teams wanting to buy low or laugh at the Raptors just because, Fred VanVleet has had a pretty poor season. His shooting splits are down to the point where his field goal is lower than his minutes played, he looks worse on defense (still effective but not as good as last season) and his shot selection has been abysmal, not to mention something about his shot form looks off.

Fred always had a habit of hero-balling last season too and when it worked, it was a moment of triumph. Even in 2021/22, however, those moments of successful hero ball were rare and the attempts by him to will the team back in to a game would often end up burying what little chance at a lead the team had.

He’s also taken a step back with the one area he definitively improved upon last season: His finishing has regressed to the point where one sighs in exasperation anytime he tries to lay the ball up rather than passing out of the paint. Not that he became elite at doing so last season but he was able to do so consistently before the All-Star game and simply forgot how to do that post-break.

In short (pun not intended), it’s been rough for Fred, who was originally looking like he would sign the largest deal of any undrafted player but now resembles a huge risk for whomever needs to sign his next cheque, not unlike Kemba Walker.

Some might point to Fred’s recent performances where he dropped 25, 19 and 20 points as a rebuttal but it’s worth remembering that, not only were two of those games where the Raptors lost (in some part due to Fred), but he shot below 30% in all 3 games. If it wasn’t for a rather generous amount of free throws (6, 9 and 12 respectively), his points per game would not be able to mask how badly his 3-point shooting has been. Put another way, when your starting point guard is playing more minutes (36mpg) than their field goal percentage (32%), something is very, very wrong.

One minor defense I do want to give Fred, weak as it may be, is that Nick Nurse has perhaps placed too much faith in him down the stretch when something seems off with his shot, and that’s not something any backup point guard can change unless they truly break out. Fred’s failings are notable, but they are a microcosm of the major problems with the Raptors, that being…

**Foul Offense**

I’m going to be blunt: The Raptors offense this season has not been fun to watch. Seeing the opponents panic on defense is a lot of joy but when it comes time for the Raptors to put the ball in the net? It’s not a ride one anticipates to deliver an exhilarating feeling. You can point to a bottom-of-the-league half-court offense, the lack of 3-point shooters bricking their shots or so on but the general disorganization of the offense is very much in line with how stagnant things looked in the 2016/17 season, which is baffling because the man credited for the following season’s more fluid and stronger offense is the guy who is currently coaching the team.

We’ll talk about Nick in a moment but…look, I get Nick Nurse cares more about defense than offense as head coach – he has been pretty vocal about tolerating offensive slipups much more than those on defense – but all those extra turnovers mean nothing when you can’t capitalize on that beyond the fast break. The Raptors have been shooting at a league-worst, sub-30% for the season and while some of that can be attributed to Porter Jr. playing for the basketball equivalent of a smoke break, Trent’s streakiness showing up when Pascal went down and Precious Achiuwa’s 3 ball no longer falling like it did post-ASG, the likes of Fred and OG shooting career-worst from beyond the arc has made the spacing horrendous for Siakam, Barnes and the team’s many other forwards to operate in the paint, and there aren’t exactly a lot of other shooters to pull off of the bench when the team needs a bucket, at least not one that isn’t so abysmal on defense as to be hunted for an easy bucket that neutralizes what they’re bringing

Speaking of the bench…

**The Bench Still Sucks**

I caught some flak in my offseason grading for saying that the Raptors didn’t address their major issues with the offseason moves and I stand by what I said. To be sure, there are some bright spots even with a tight, playoff-esque rotation. Chris Boucher has been a great energy man when the team needs a sparkplug even if his 3-ball still isn’t on par with his 19/20 season, and he’s had some big double-double nights that contributed to winning. Thad Young has been a steady glue guy keeping the team together through its frequent shooting droughts. Otto Porter Jr. was great in the 5 minutes he played in before he got hurt…again. And he was out for the beginning of the season while awaiting the birth of his latest child.

All of this is to say that the bench is undeniably better than last season even before you add in Trent being moved to it in favor of starting Koloko. That doesn’t mean the bench is good compared to the rest of the league, that is an indictment of how shallow a bench we were using last season, as the same issues are still present with the team’s roster construction: There’s no guard good enough to get minutes at the 1 or the 2 and the center rotation consists of a second-rounder that is starting and a veteran who lacks the size to truly play the position.

Technically speaking, we’ve been using less of our current personnel than we did last season. I’m not going to act like Justin Champagnie is amazing but he is a perfectly playable player on defense, he has the length to bother the opposing team and his stints in the G-League suggest he has some untapped shooting potential, but none of those qualities have allowed him to get non-garbage time minutes despite him being able to get them in the prior season. Not saying he’s the answer to our guard rotation, take your pick, [I’ve named names](https://www.reddit.com/r/torontoraptors/comments/zfk17i/pointing_out_the_problem_backup_guards_who_to/), but all of this reeks of a front office not confident in the team they put together to commit to them as a contenders in the short or long-term. It genuinely seems like, no matter the team’s direction, that they’re banking on Barnes becoming a superstar over night and doing it all with all the positions they threw him into in his rookie season.

Speaking of Scottie…

# The Confusing

**Scottie Barnes Sophomore Slump**

*Warning: Incoming Rant*

The way the fanbase talks about Scottie, especially on social media like Twitter, moves from to radioactive to downright asinine at record speed. There are certainly valid criticisms to be had about his play, energy, body language, etc. and we’ll get to those in due time, but the amount of criticism and forms that said criticism manifest in are borderline delusional for a 2nd year player. I’m tempted to do a post simply highlighting how many of the all-time Raptors greats (Vince Carter, Chris Bosh, Damon Stoudamire, DeMar DeRozan, Pascal Siakam) looked and played in their sophomore season just so people can use it as a reference in understanding something that should be fairly straightforward: A talented rookie, even a Rookie of the Year like Damon, Vince or Scottie in their respective sophomore seasons, breaking out in their 2nd season to become the 1st or 2nd option on offense is incredibly rare, often entirely circumstantial and it often takes players years to become the one that history remember them for.

But to keep things on point (pun not intended), let’s just take a look at the stats for the first Raptors Rookie of the Year, Damon Stoudamire, in his rookie and sophomore season:

1996 – 19 PPG, 9.3 APG, 3 RPG, 1.4 SPG on 43/40/80 (rounded to the nearest whole %)

1997 – 20.2 PPG, 8.8 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.5 SPG on 40/36/82 (rounded to the nearest whole %)

There is some improvement to be noted, some regression within the mean but overall, there does not appear to be much of a difference in how Damon played if one goes solely by the numbers, and that performance was reflected in the team’s record as the 97 Raptors were just as bad as the 96 team.

While Stoudamire’s career did stall when he was traded to the Blazers, that had as much to do with issues pertaining to his role post-trade (this was the Jail Blazers era where they had lots of talent and names but significant trouble trying to find guys minutes) as well as injuries hampering a talented point guard’s career more than it did with the respective staff of the Raptors or Blazers. I hate to say it given how divisive a figure he is amongst fans, but as far as Raptors greats go, Vince Carter was the only true exception to the rule of the sophomore slump, turning into a perennial superstar over night and a bonafide 1st option on a championship team – in theory, anyway. We all know Vince never won a ring for a variety of reasons.

Hell, just look at how long Pascal took to go from just an energy big off the bench to someone who, prior to injury and the slump the Raptors are mired in, was garnering MVP consideration and threatens to casually stroll his way into a triple-double every game. It was a long and bumpy road to get to where he is now but peak Pascal was a player worth waiting for. Player development is not linear and the level of impatience on display does not justify the level of vitriol aimed at Scottie. If the level of criticism Fred has received has caused him to shut off social media, I can only imagine what Scottie’s been getting as of late in his Twitch streams or DMs.

Having said that…yes, there are criticisms to be had of Scottie Barnes, and there are valid criticisms being made in good faith that should be noted. Not everyone criticizing him is a toxic asshole on Twitter or a bitter Franz Wagner fan wishing he had won Rookie of the Year. If Masai Ujiri is having a meeting with you about the way you’re playing like he did before his 13/17 double-double, there is criticism to be warranted.

Scottie Barnes has been very inconsistent this season and did not look so great in the preseason games, regardless of him being injured or not at the time. Teams scouting for him now does not account for how he’s lacked that same energy and aggression that made him so effective in the paint during his ROTY campaign, his defense against opposing point guards being lackluster and his passiveness undermining his great passing ability. Last season, Scottie was at his best working in the post, be it hunting mismatches for an easy hookshot or layup on offense, often unassisted while doing just that, or grabbing boards and bringing the ball up on defense. But he hasn’t been much of that recently.

His triple-double in a loss against the Mavericks is the game I’d point to as an illustration of the duality of Scottie Barnes stewing in his sophomore slump: A guy who can just take over a game and be the guy that does it all for his teammates. Take a shot himself and get that critical bucket. Find the right man to take the shot and set them up for success with a craft no-look bullet of a pass. Get on the boards and keep the possession going. It was a sight to behold, mostly because it stood in contrast to his level of passiveness in the first 3 quarters that contributed to that trench that the Raptors had dug for themselves at that point and Pascal attempted to lift them out of.

Concerningly, his habit to take deep 2s early into the shotclock instead of hunting for a mismatch from last season has seemingly increased and while Scottie shoots rather decently from the midrange, he’s not shooting well enough to justify taking the least efficient shot in all of basketball instead of taking after Bob Ross and getting some paint work done.

You can argue about how much of this is due to a lack of a defined role on either end since the team treats him like a Swiss Army knife to fill in whatever position they lack in a given lineup, whether there’s problems in the locker room between him and another player, whether *he* is the problem in the locker room, whether he’s playing injured (more on that later) or so on but the fact of the matter is that Scottie hasn’t had the best start to his sophomore season. While we shouldn’t expect Scottie to be averaging 20/10/7 like he’s channeling prime Bosh with far superior passing, he does need to bring more of the energy he oozed last season, and if he isn’t healthy enough to do that, he should be resting.

One positive to note about Scottie is that, unlike the vast majority of Raptors players this season, his 3-point shooting is actually slightly up this season, and that’s come with an increase in shot attempts from beyond the arc. Granted, said percentage has fallen of late and there are still some kinks to be worked out (his release is still a little slow) but his willingness to try and space the floor has been a positive sign for his development as a shooter.

And Scottie is going to need time to develop because this season has not been his finest thus far.

**Nick’s Nursery is Nursing Injuries**

Aka. Continuing to rant about how the bench still sucks and our coach refuses to play most of the players in Nick’s Nursery Part 2: Electric Boogaloo

Basically we’re talking about how the bench being bad might be perpetuating a cycle of injuries for our players.

Look, you’re not getting a coach better than Nick Nurse if you fire him even if that were an option so stop expecting that to happen. Not only is he not getting fired, but he’s likely to stick around for years to come no matter what direction the team goes in. He was a huge reason for that championship and he’s earned both his player’s trust and some patience when he’s been dealt the not-so-great hand the front office has saddled him with as far as the current bench goes. Even if Siakam wants him to go, i’m skeptical that the front office would fire or trade Nick Nurse (yes coaches can be traded but it’s rare) over a more diplomatic approach and trying to get the two to work their differences out.

That said, like Scottie there are valid criticisms to be had regarding him i.e. the iso-heavy offense/lack of regard for complex or fluid offensive schemes, the overreliance on veterans and thus not building any chemistry or allowing young players like Champagnie, Harper Jr. (who is getting time in the G League) and Banton to develop or play through their mistakes, and most notably his deference to Fred despite the many games where he shouldn’t be on the floor, let alone after playing 35 minutes with 3 more to go in a pivotal possession. Stuff that we’ve mostly touched on.

What we haven’t touched on is how the selectiveness of who plays off the bench has led to the starting lineup playing a staggering amount of minutes, often to barely win against teams they should have no trouble trouncing or losing to them in embarrassing fashion.

There is a microscopic level of leeway to be given for the starters’ playtime since the bench is still terrible but like I mentioned earlier, it’s not like they bench are all bums or that they can’t be some minutes squeezed out for who’s on it. Moreover, it’s not as if the front office can’t make moves despite their lack of such this offseason, unfortunate though it is that their main pickup, Otto Porter Jr., has succumbed to the injury bug.

I get not playing Malachi Flynn 20-25 minutes but surely Nick and the coaching staff can find the likes of Justin Champagnie some non-garbage playing time; they did so last season and still managed to clinch the 5th seed in a tight Eastern Conference in what was supposed to be a development season.

Speaking of injuries, recently, there was a comment by Nurse that several Raptors players were suiting up despite being injured or having physical issues to note, with his comments at the time being in reference to Scottie.

[https://twitter.com/aaronbenrose/status/1601676015511953409](https://twitter.com/aaronbenrose/status/1601676015511953409)

I’m not going to speculate on who else is injured, what they may have sustained and whether they decided to play through it or if Nick Nurse and the coaching staff asked them/pressured them to work through the pain. All I will comment on is the eye test – players like Scottie and Fred did look like they were playing through injury at points throughout the season – even though Fred says he’s healthy, the mechanics of his shot still look “off” – and the wave of injuries should have welcomed an opportunity to explore different lineups or at minimum ease up on the starter minutes. Instead, Nurse has resorted to his habit of playing playoff rotations game after game, a tight 8-man squad even against opposing teams that they should have no problem establishing a lead against, let alone maintaining.

More worryingly, the wear and tear of the extra minutes is likely contributing to worse overall health for the starters and may be contributing to injuries they’ve sustained due to their increased usage. It’s a neverending cycle where:

\-The bench is too injured/poorly constructed to offer relief to our starters who might not be healthy to begin with, as Nurse alluded to the former in an interview

\-The starters have to play excessive minutes in order to pull off a win, unconvincing or not, because of the aforementioned shortcomings of the bench and missing players like Porter and Achiuwa

\-The increase in minutes doesn’t let them rest or recover from their injuries, leading to the possibility of worse issues later on in the season or general exhaustion due to them playing 35-40 minutes a game

It’s bad when the team ekes out a close win with OG playing an exhaustive defensive effort for 41 minutes but it’s inexcusable when they sustain heavy minutes to end up losing to tanking teams like the Magic or blowing a lead late in the 4th to the Pacers.

Playing through injuries in the playoffs is not ideal but it make sense given how high the stakes are – you can find countless stories of the sacrifices all-time greats sacrificing their body, long-term health and well-being just for the chance to get on the biggest stage and win a championship. But those teams had to make the playoffs in order to get to the playoffs.

For the regular season, such post-retirement stories should not even come to mind, at least not for the early half of the season. Whether it’s a player making the decision themselves or feeling they need to make a given choice by the staff or their teammates, it should not be a strong consideration for the early regular season given how many games there are and how a banged-up team will fare against even a lower seeded team.

# So Where Do We Go From Here?

I’m not even going to entertain “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” as an option because this season was very clearly going to involve some move(s) for the team with how many players are due for a new contract (Trent Jr., VanVleet, Porter Jr. when he inevitably declines his player option to get one last payday) and how many will need to be paid next year (Precious, OG).

**Consolidation**

If the Raptors are “staying put”, it’s in their trajectory of staying competitive and trying to get that second title in 10 years like Masai mentioned at the start of the 2021/22 season, bumpy road and all on the way there. Fred and Trent are both expiring so you might not get much from them individually – I still think you can get at least a 1st for each of them given the currently inflated trade market even with Fred having a down year but feel free to disagree – it is worth noting that their combined salaries are around $38 million and the Raptors have all of their picks barring a second owed as part of the Gasol trade. You can take a look at which teams are struggling, which ones might want to blow it up, and which stars are making what money but the point is there is an opportunity for this team to make a push for a title with Siakam as their 1st option or their 1A t X or Y player’s 1B. Will they make a big play at the deadline? Honestly, I’m not sure that’s the plan when the East’s 1st and 2nd best teams are in a tier of their own and the current productivity of the bench is what it is.

The big name right now being tossed around is former Raptore/current Spurs center Jakob Poeltl, who’s quietly become one of the best rim-protecting centers in the league and is arguably at his peak. Setting aside for a moment the draft capital required to make such a deal – the Spurs want 2 firsts with light protections and plan to re-sign him if they don’t get it– and the Warriors being in contention for the Yak’s services complicating matters, regardless of how one feels about Wiseman’s trade value, does Jakob make the Raptors a contender this season or push them in that direction? Or is that more of a sidegrade that makes them competitive rather than true contenders? And is Poeltl going to want to re-sign with the Raptors after they dealt him away so quickly? Much as I love the idea of a Raptors reunion, I remain unconvinced that bringing Poeltl back will really push the Raptors where they want to be, and I think the front office knows that.

Or maybe they don’t? Like I said, the Raptors have dealt with a lot of injuries & inconsistent lineups of late so it is difficult to get an overall picture of how good or bad the team is i.e. what does this team’s peak look like but losses to the Magic and a win against the Lakers lacking LeBron and Anthony Davis that was less of a blowout than anticipated suggest that the team isn’t performing as expected. We’ll likely have a better idea of where the Raptors are going direction-wise after their next 6 games, all of which are against teams above .500, but I would imagine that it’s more likely that…

**Punt the season/Re-tool for a Spicy 2023/24**

Aka the 2022 Blazers plans. Granted, the Blazers did so largely because their franchise player, Damian Lillard, looked rough to start and was seemingly playing through an injury before having season-ending surgery. If Siakam is playing through injury, we wouldn’t know because he doesn’t look any different since returning from his groin injury but either way, he’s been the definition of carrying, playing at a level that makes it difficult for them to get out of No Man’s Land but without the support necessary to get the team through a solid series of wins. So, what to do beyond sitting Siakam and letting him rest while the young guys get in some reps and build up some chemistry? Maybe make a move or two to help free up some cash for this offseason or the next with OG up for an extension?

Regardless of the logistics, in this scenario, ***someone on the roster is likely getting moved*** to get the assets needed to do a re-tool around Pascal for the 2023/24 season; the Raptors might have all of their picks but they would likely be seeking a first or two in this or the next draft to maintain their flexibility and thus the options available if things don’t work out (For the Blazers, things are…mixed right now so they might need to make another move at or near the deadline). Moving a combination of Trent, Fred, Birch, Flynn, etc. would either free up significant money or give them a trade exception and the return could net them the assets to make moves like the Blazers did via bringing in Jerami Grant for a mere Bucks pick that won’t convey until 2025 and absorbing his salary via the trade exception from the CJ McCollum trade. Additionally, one of the benefits of the draft is that it’ll give the team a combination of cost control and team control over their players, something they currently lack with both Trent and Fred being unrestricted free agents at the end of the 2022/23 season.

There is one major hurdle with this scenario, and it’s pretty obvious: Beyond wasting a DPOY effort from OG, one more All-NBA nod & Siakam will be eligible for a supermax deal. Why would he go along with sitting this season out, presumably after the All-Star break, when he’s all but assured to get All-NBA 3rd team, if not 2nd? Sure, Siakam could get that nod next year, provided he’s up to his 2022/23 season par, but if I were Pascal, that’s not something I’d be happy about given how much money that could leave on the table, especially because, like the Blazers, there’s no guarantee that you get a draft pick high enough to shop around nor that any team bites on a deal you try to make for said pick. Recall that the Blazers tried and failed to acquire OG Anunoby for the pick that eventually turned into Shaedon Sharpe, and it’s likely that several other deals were tried and failed with other teams to get someone who was more in line with Dame Time that we don’t even know about. There might have even been other deals in the works with the Raptors! Point being, retooling in a single season is a lot harder than it sounds, and that’s if your star player even goes along with it.

To be sure, Pascal would likely sign the supermax in free agency if he was eligible rather than an extension due to how much more money he would make by signing a 5-year supermax rather than extending his current contract, but he can’t sign said max of the super variety if he’s not eligible for it, hence the contention between asking him to do what the Thunder have been doing with Shai for years and a demonstrable conflict of interest. If he is more than fine with this move then that changes everything but that’s an if as big as the team’s hole in guard rotation. Or center rotation, take your pick. Both of them are pretty big.

**Step Back, Leap Forward**

Similar to the above but with even more minutes given to guys like Champagnie, Banton and whomever is received in a trade for the more veteran players on the roster. The main difference between the above and this scenario? Gary Trent Jr., barring some overpay from a contender like, say that rumored Warriors deal of Kuminga, Donte D. and Kuminga but instead of a 2nd it comes with 2 1sts (Note: I’m not saying the Warriors would do this deal, just that a deal yielding this is an example of an overpay), is likely to stay due to his age and the potential to flip him for a better offer after signing him to a longer contract.

Like before, you’d have to get Pascal’s okay but unlike before, this one risks the chance of him declining by the time they’ve developed the proper support around him rather than simply surrounding him with it right now because you’re looking at developing your young guys into better starters or players off the bench over the course of years.

One of the main reasons why the bench is currently a shambling mess right now is a combination of trading away picks to build a contender with more veteran players and the former bench players now starting for the team with no equivalent players to replace them in the years since. Trading awaydraft capital to get Serge Ibaka, Marc Gasol and Kawhi Leonard was worth it of course, those moves led to a championship, but the lack of several draft picks, namely a selection in the 1st round for every other year led to the NBA equivalent of brain drain from the bench once its main players went on to start or were moved elsewhere to fill in the holes left by the likes of those players leaving in free agency. Put simply, the Raptors haven’t been developing a bench due to them not needing nor wanting to so long as they kept their championship core intact, and the players they’ve either signed (Aron Baynes) or drafted (Jalen Harris, Dewan Hernandez) didn’t pan out for one reason or another; with the Raptors being as good as they were and lacking the 1sts that made the moves to be a contender possible, what few second-rounder they did make over the past few years were near the end of the draft and thus lowly overall prospects.

The point is that the Raptors bench production will take some time to recreate but that said time might not necessarily line up with Siakam’s peak years. Thus, we get into a more drastic option and one that invites significant instability and uncertainty for the team…

**Rebuild, No Tools Required**

Basically, getting a haul for Siakam and whatever one can pick up for Fred and the other veterans (OG is young enough that he should still be at his peak when the tank is over but you’d still listen to offers if someone is willing to overpay), lock in on Scottie, Precious, Koloko, OG and whomever else is drafted in the next 2-4 years as your new core players and tank for a Top 3 pick.

As far as the main options go, this is one I’m very much against. I’ll include a comment detailing why because I ran out of characters in this post but the tl;dr is that tanking sounds better on paper in execution.

# Conclusion

The Raptors have well over 50 games ahead of them and the deadline isn’t for another 2 months from now. Regardless, one hopes that the team will pick a direction and stick with it by then because right now, they don’t seem to have one. I’ll be rooting for them to succeed but for now, they’re occupying too many lanes & need to choose one.

by CazOnReddit