Bucks vs Celtics – an “open” shot analysis

Yesterday after the (very) tough loss I saw u/saintname8 say that we couldn’t hit an open shot and I got the same impression from watching the game so I decided to do some investigation.

Now, an open shot is open for interpretation (the NBA has it where the closest defender is more than 4 feet), however, since they only provide the numbers and not the specific plays, I decided to count them myself with a slight change.

What I counted as an open shot was:

1. A shot where no defender is nearby
2. A shot where the defenders contest comes *after* the player shot the ball
3. A shot where the contest is just so the player can tell the coach they tried blocking it

What I *didn’t* count as an open shot:

1. A shot where a player is somewhat nearby and raises their hand
2. A shot where it’s an “open” three but an opposition player get a somewhat good close-out

When there was a shot where I was indecisive between which of these two categories it fell on, I decided to not include it. Let me preface this by saying some of the shots I selected might be not considered open, but it’s my personal choice and I don’t think it’s too far off.

And I also discarded garbage time.

Now, onto the numbers, for the Celtics:

|Quarter|Type of shot|Outcome|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Al Horford 3PT 10:25|Fail|
|1|Al Horford 3PT 09:47|**Hit**|
|1|Jayson Tatum 3PT 08:24|**Hit**|
|1|Jayson Tatum 3PT 05:40|Fail|
|1|Derrick White 3PT 05:02|Fail|
|2|Blake Griffin 3PT 07:16|Fail|
|2|Al Horford 3PT 03:44|Fail|
|2|Jaylen Brown 3PT 01:40|Fail|
|3|Al Horford 3PT 09:49|**Hit**|
|3|Al Horford 3PT 09:23|Fail|
|3|Derrick White 3PT 04:36|**Hit**|
|4|Grant Williams 3PT 10:39|**Hit**|
|4|Grant Williams 3PT 09:23|**Hit**|
|4|Malcolm Brogdon 3PT 08:49|Fail|
|4|Jaylen Brown 2PT 08:17|Fail|
|4|Jaylen Brown 2PT 05:54|**Hit**|

For the Bucks:

|Quarter| |Outcome|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Grayson Allen 3PT 11:08|Fail|
|1|Giannis 3PT 07:05|Fail|
|2|Giannis 2PT 08:14|Fail|
|2|Giannis 3PT 05:17|Fail|
|3|Brook Lopez 3PT 10:31|Fail|
|3|Pat Connaughton 3PT 08:07|Fail|
|3|Grayson Allen 3PT 06:53|Fail|
|3|Giannis 3PT 06:22|Fail|
|3|Pat Connaughton 3PT 04:52|Hit|
|3|Wesley Matthews 3PT 02:34|Fail|
|4|Joe Ingles 3PT 10:57|Hit|
|4|Jrue Holiday 3PT 07:49|Hit|
|4|Giannis 3PT 04:39|Hit|

First off we can see that the Bucks gave up a total of 14 “open” three-point looks, compared to 12 for the Celtics. The biggest difference is that the Celtics made 6 of them, while the Bucks only made 4.

But the thing that stands out most to me is that outside the Pat Connaughton 3PT in the third quarter, **all of the Bucks open 3PT came in the 4th quarter**, which meant that we couldn’t convert them early which helped the Celtics gain a points advantage.

Here’s the statistics:

Celtics:

| |FGM|FGA|FG%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2PT|1|2|50|
|3PT|6|14|42.85714286|
|Total|7|16|43.75|

Bucks:

​

| |FGM|FGA|FG%|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|2PT|0|1|0|
|3PT|4|12|33.33333333|
|Total|4|13|30.76923077|

Finally, another thing to take onto account is the player shooting percentages for the threes, where Al Horford is hitting 45.1% this season, Malcolm and Grant Williams both 43.7%, so leaving them open is a huge risk, while for the Bucks, Pat is shooting 32.6%, Giannis 25.3%, Ingles 17.6% (low volume), the only good one is Grayson at 40.2%.

As a final note, in the last 10 games, Marjon is shooting 46.7% from three on 3 3PA per game, and Bud only choose to play him on garbage time. I won’t even advocate for AJ Green to get some playing time in these kinds of games, since he pretty much only shoots (but he’s damn good at it though, at 47.4%).

As a conclusion, Bud needs to figure out what is wrong with this defense, because at the start of the 3Q, with the game at a 6 point difference, leaving Al Horford open for three two times in a row is asking for trouble, and he only made one of them, and after that we only watched the lead grow, we’re back to teams double teaming Giannis and since nobody on the team can shoot they don’t get punished for it.

And as a final (more positive) note, even with all of these problems we were down by less than double digits a lot of the game, which meant that with a couple stops a comeback was possible. If we figure most of these problems out (and Khris comes back) I think we can easily come back to our old form again.

Here’s a replay for the team’s “open” shots:

* [Bucks](https://streamable.com/mv06lm)
* [Celtics](https://streamable.com/1f6t2i)

by Zhugo