[Source](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nba-predictions/)
You might remember that 538 infamously had the Celtics as championship contenders last year when they were the 11th seed. Could they be on to something again?
Interestingly, the 2nd seed Pelicans only have a 3% chance according to them. Wonder what their algorithm sees that makes it rate them so lowly? They’re 3rd in the league in net rating, which is usually a good predictor of team quality, and that’s with BI having missed most of the season.
by TacoooJay
50 Comments
Unfortunately 538 doesn’t account for swag, so I don’t trust these
If the Celtics get 58 wins as predicted, Tatum would get MVP right?
Not sure I trust this thing l lol
76ers gotta make it to a conference finals first lmao
They don’t account for the intangibles; will to win, discipline, experience, hustle, etc. Players are not robots that function exactly the way the stats might imply they should every game.
Does 538 count for beams? Cause i really feel this projection doesnt count beams lit.
Mavs seem a little high.
Get someone who looks at you the way 538 looks at the Celtics
Bucks seem low. Their core seems to be deteriorating a bit (besides Giannis obviously) but I still feel weird having them under Phili and Memphis
538 is a joke. Where’d they have the Warriors last year?
Ah yo wtf
They also had the Celtics at ~90% going into the finals last year and the Warriors with a 3% chance at the start of the playoff so I’d be careful getting too excited about this
538 gives us 5% again? Worked out well last year 🙂
As a Pelicans fan, I think it’s clearly factoring in to some extent playoff experience. That isn’t crazy to me honestly.
It’s because 538 uses past games played as part of their model. Zion missed a ton of games that last couple seasons.
Dallas about 5% too high tbh
15th best odds, the New York Mids delivers yet again
Grizzlies not high enough! We’re going all the way this year baby! Can’t wait for brooks to shine.
Warriors seem low… it could all fall together again
how are Nugget’s 4th highest to win it all? over the Bucks and Nets?
lol
Are the luka stans going to jump in here about Jokic too?
Hmm doesn’t look like they’re predicting 38 year old LeBron to carry the Lakers into playoff contention without AD then sweep the playoffs once AD returns..
Wrong.
538 is always right!!!!
Philly with 3rd highest odds is wild
Do not sleep on the Clippers
So what we know for sure from these projections is that the Celtics are clearly not winning it.
I want someone to love me like how r/nba loves 538
538 has essentially ruined its credibility multiple times a year since 2016, so this is right on track
Things I would do to avoid a Celtics ring
Didn’t 538 give really poor odds for warriors the whole playoffs?
We have to keep growing as a squad if we’re going to make any noise this postseason. In particular team rebounding and not playing like chickens with our heads cut off in crunch time. Harden needs to be assertive as floor general in those situations, it’s one of the reasons we brought him in.
We can’t really do anything about Doc’s braindead rotations we’re just going to have to live with that handicap.
Otherwise I’m a bit surprised to see the Bucks and Nets lower than us. I think they’re both more playoff ready than we are right now for sure.
Warriors makes sense because they had issues even before Curry got hurt, but I would never count them out.
Damn fuck the pels i guess lol
Mavs at 5% 🧐 Isn’t that a little high??
538 giving us only a 5% chance? Pack it up boys we championship again
Way to fucking high on the grizzlies. Why are they trying to force them so hard? They aren’t scary at all for any of the actual top teams in the West.
Morant is at best a third best player on a championship team.
I have zero faith in 538’s NBA projections. They always love the Sixers and yet the Sixers still haven’t made it out of the 2nd round and they won’t this year.
Knowing their track record, I’d bet it all on the Pels.
I’m not bias tho.
People are trying to make their ouija boards seem more legitimate by attaching numbers.
Denver? Cleveland? Tf’s up with Milwaukee?
You can’t watch the nets play right now and have them only at a 6% chance. If they’re healthy and Kyrie stays out of trouble (big if, I know), hard to pick any team over them in a given series.
Look how they massacred my boy(Pelicans)!!!
538 algorithm is a big Celtics fan
No Clippers jumps out to me, seeing that most sportsbooks have them valued over the Grizzles, 76ers, Nuggets, Mavs and Suns.
Nets are too low
How does dawg factor in to this?
Why Pelicans so low? 🤔
STOP THE COUNT!
The disrespect to the Pelicans, who have been better than at least the Mavs, Suns, Sixers, and Warriors, is crazy here. How are they ranked so low?
The only reason the Celtics made the finals was a massive number of injuries in the east. The Warriors did what a healthy Bucks or Heat team would have done to them. Their 538 algo is a fucking joke.
76s??? Hot garbage take